1. Agriculture and Rural-Urban migrations in Developing Countries: facts and policy implications Jacques Vercueil – presentation based on an FAO study from the « Roles of Agriculture » (RoA) Project National Agricultural Policy Center, Damascus – 12 December 2004

2. Worldwide rural exodus since 1950

3. Plan of the Presentation The ROA Project Highlights of Rural-Urban migration in a sample of countries Results from the ROA research Policy implications

4. The Roles of Agriculture Is Agriculture « special »? –Economic roles –Social roles –Environmental roles –Cultural roles

5. Sample of RoA countries

6. The Country-Case-Studies framework Module 1: Historical Policy framework M2: environmental role, national and local M3: anti-poverty role M4: national & household food security M5: buffer role against crises M6: social viability (Rural-urban migration) M7: perception and cultural role

7. Module 6: Social Viability The role of agriculture in rural-to-urban migrations (RUM)

8. Overview of Migration in the RoA Countries and Syria Trends in the Urban Share of Population History of the « Migration Drive »

9. Trends of urbanisation

10. u = 1 / (1+e -mt ) m = migration drive The sigmoid model

11. The cross-country path of urbanisation

12. Decreasing drive

13. Increasing drive

14. Lessons from the studies Who migrates why? Urban development patterns and costs The role of agriculture

15. Examples of internal migrations

16. Who migrates why? Survey from Dominican Republic

17. Urban development problems Primacy in the sample countries

18. The Role of Agriculture The anti-poverty role of agriculture The size of agriculture Sub-sector differences: –Commodity differences –Institutional differences –Development projects Rural-to-rural migration (seasonal or permanent) Agriculture and rural development

19. Agriculture in the Rural Economy

20. Agri / Rural population (%) - 112 developing countries

21. Agricultural policies Agriculture terms of trade Profitable labour intensive agriculture Capital markets Agricultural insecurity

22. Sub-sector differences Commodity differences Institutional differences Local agricultural development (projects)

23. Agriculture and Rural development The entire rural economy matters for migrations Rural infrastructures and services Agricultural links with the non-farm economy How to maintain the social fabric in rural areas?

24. Other policies Migration policies Social policies Urban policies Spatial development management

25. To conclude “Revitalization of rural areas must also be a priority to enhance social stability and help redress the excessive rate of rural-to-urban migration confronting many countries”. Rome Declaration on World Food Security, paragraph 5 (World Food Summit, November 1996)

26. Thank you for your attention