1. The Mad Hedge Fund Trader “Waiting for Mario” With John Thomas from San Francisco, CA January 21, 2015 www.madhedgefundtrader.com www.madhedgefundtrader.com

2. MHFT Global Strategy Luncheons Buy tickets at www.madhedgefundtrader.comwww.madhedgefundtrader.com Honolulu, Hawaii April 3, 2015

3. Portfolio Review Running a Big New Year Book Mostly Hedged current capital at risk World is Getting Better Risk On (TBT) short Treasury ETF10.00% (LINN) units10.00% (GILD) 1/$85-$90 call spread10.00% (IWM) 2/$107-$112 call spread10.00% (BAC) 2/$16-$17 call spread10.00% (OXY) 2/$70-$75 call spread10.00% World is Getting Worse Risk Off (AA) 2/$17-$18 put spread-10.00% (FXE) 2/$122-$124 put spread-10.00% (FXE) 2/$120-$122 put spread-10.00% total net position30.00%

4. Trade Alert Performance Four Year Anniversary! *January MTD -2.50% 2014 FINAL +30.31%, versus 7% for the Dow *First 214 weeks of Trading +152.8%!

5. Paid Subscriber Trailing 12 Month Return +22.2%

6. 49 Months Since Inception Averaged annualized +36.8%

7. Strategy Outlook-Deflation is the New Driver *Super weak oil and strong cancels the Christmas and New Year rallies, prompts global “RISK OFF” and profit taking, but the end is near *Oil fell so fast that it is creating global systemic risks and uncertainty watch out for the unintended consequences (Texas housing, North Dakota jobs) *Swiss franc shock further destabilizes the global trading system *ECB announces QE of E$50 billion/month of bond purchases for one year *Multiple crisis bring gold back to life *Grains in winter hibernation, a neutral USDA January report

8. The Jim Parker View The Mad Day Trader-On sale for a $1,500 upgrade Technical Set Up of the week - Stuck in range until ECB on Thursday Buy Biotechs on dips (IBB) grains trying to bottom (JJG) gold on dips over $1,300 (GLD) Sell Short (FXE) too risky, $116.70 in cash triggers big rally (USO) if breaks oil $45.80 Avoid Bonds (TLT), could go higher

9. The Global Economy-Is America Slowing? *Spate of weak US data prompt recession fears. There is no recession on the horizon, but you have to let the fears work their way through the market first *Data is mixed, December PPI is a deflationary -0.3%, +1.1% YOY, December Philly Fed 24.5 to 6.3, December industrial production -0.1%, but January consumer sentiment jumps from 94.4 to 98.8, a ten year high, but market is only looking at negative data *US dollar is rocketing, Euro is crashing, prompting concerns about foreign earnings *We have to survive the collapse of the oil industry first, now 10% of the stock market *Greek elections setting up another “RISK OFF” day *Overnight 20% increase in Swiss franc interest and principal a new burden in Europe

10. Weekly Jobless Claims - The trend is your Friend +19,000 to 316,000

11. Bonds-Reaching a Crescendo Gunning for 1.36% *All Fixed Income are Putting in Blow Off Tops *German ten year bunds at 0.45% are dragging down yields globally, JGB’s at 0.19%, and Swiss hit -0.4%, negative for the first time in history anywhere *US 10 Year Treasury poised to test record low 1.36% yield set in 2012, (TBT) aiming at $37 handle *Fed not to raise interest rates until 2016, reinforced by oil and bond yield crashes *Deflation is here to stay *Momentum may favor bonds for a few more months

12. Ten Year Treasuries (TLT) 2.00% The Trend is Your Enemy

13. Ten Year Treasuries ($TNX) 1.70%

14. 30 Year Treasury Yield ($TYX)-Yield 2.40% Ditto Here

15. Junk Bonds (HYG) 5.09% Yield The New Lead Contract

16. 2X Short Treasuries (TBT) stopped out of a 10% long position-Potential move to $37

17. Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) 3.05% Yield

18. Emerging Market Debt (ELD) 5.20% Yield

19. Municipal Bonds (MUB)-2.62% yield, Mix of AAA, AA, and A rated bonds

20. Stocks-A Buyable Dip is Close *This is another 5%-10% correction, not a new bear market, if bonds make a run to 1.36%, it will be 10% more than 5% *Outbreak of global uncertainty has stock buyers sitting on their hands *This is creating a great entry point for 2015 for the best non oil sectors, like technology, health care, and solar *Economic data is modestly weakening, giving fright of a potential slowdown *58% of companies beating top line estimates (revenues) 88% beating bottom line (profits) *Bond rally has demolished financials *China bans new margin lending for 3 months to cool market, market crashes 8%

21. S&P 500-Targeting 1,900?

22. Dow Average-Targeting 16,800?

23. NASDAQ (QQQ)-

24. Europe Hedged Equity (HEDJ)-Demolished by Russia

25. (VIX)-Setting up a Triple top

26. Russell 2000 (IWM)-Poised for a Breakout long 2/$107-$112 vertical bull call spread

27. Technology Sector SPDR (XLK), (ROM)

28. Industrials Sector SPDR (XLI)

29. Health Care Sector SPDR (XLV), (RXL)

30. Financial Select SPDR (XLF)-Demolished by bonds

31. Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY)

32. Apple (AAPL) –

33. Bank of America (BAC)- long 2/$14-$15 vertical bull call spread two roll downs in one week

34. Alcoa (AA)- 12/$17-$18 vertical bear put spread

35. Gilead Sciences (GILD)- took profits on the 2/$85-$90 vertical bull call spread

36. AT&T (T)- long 2/$35-$37 vertical bear put spread

37. China (FXI)-

38. Japan (DXJ)-Hedged Japan Equity

39. Emerging Markets (EFA)- Biggest Beneficiaries of Cheap Oil-Go figure

40. India (EPI) –Biggest Beneficiary of Cheap Oil

41. Russia (RSX)

42. Foreign Currencies- Diverging Sharply *Swiss National Bank ends Euro cap, prompts immediate 20% revaluation of the Swiss Franc against the Euro, sparks new round of Euro selling *Euro (FXE) hits new 12 year low against greenback *European court rules that QE is legal, paves the way for a new Euro leg down *Oil industry collapse is weighing on Loonie *Aussie hits new four year low on collapsing commodities and weaker growth, iron ore meltdown *Emerging currencies in free fall

43. Currency of the Week

44. Euro ($XEU), (FXE), (EUO) Targeting $105, and then $85 took profits on long (FXE) 2/$122-124 vertical bear put spread took profits on long (FXE) 2/$120-122 vertical bear put spread

45. Long Dollar Index (UUP) New Four Year High

46. British Pound (FXB)-

47. Japanese Yen (FXY)- Global ‘RISK OFF” Means cover yen shorts

48. Short Japanese Yen ETF (YCS)

49. Australian Dollar (FXA) –New Four Year Low

50. Chinese Yuan- (CYB)

51. Emerging Market Currencies (CEW) Dragged down by commodities collapse

52. Energy-The New Subprime Crisis *Bottom is here, or close, I don’t see the $30 handle *Crude and product inventories through the roof, up by an amazing 11.50 million barrels last week *A big cleanout of the industry is underway, with weaker players going under or taken over *Oil carry trade is back on, 20% annual returns to buy spot, sell one year forward, and put into storage, a boom in old tankers *Don’t expect a rapid bounce back, winding down 15 years of leverage accumulation

53. From 6.5 to 2.5 Million Barrels/day in 6 Years

54. Crashing Rig Counts From 1,650 to 1,350 rigs in 3 Months

55. Oil-Trying to Find a Bottom

56. United States Oil Fund (USO )

57. Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE )

58. MLP’s (LINE) 13% Yield-Capitulation Sell Off long a 10% Position, yielding 13% after a 47% dividend cut

59. Exxon (XOM)

60. Occidental Petroleum (OXY) stopped out of the 2/$70-$75 vertical bull call spread

61. Conoco Phillips (COP)

62. Natural Gas (UNG)-

63. Copper-

64. Freeport McMoRan (FCX )- New Lows

65. Precious Metals-A Bear Market Rally *Flight to safety finally finds gold *If you can’t hide in the Swiss franc, what else is left? Unreliability of SNB has made SF a higher risk currency *Charts starting to put in a convincing, multi month bottom, setting up a trading rally *Check out the new long gold/short yen ETF (GYEN) and the long gold/short Euro ETF (GEUO) *Gold is pulling up silver as well *Best potential is in the Miners (GDX) and Barrack Gold (ABX)

66. Gold-A More Convincing Bottom

67. Barrick Gold (ABX)-

68. Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF- (GDX) No Friends

69. Silver (SLV)-

70. Silver Miners (SIL)

71. Agriculture *Oil collapse is having a major positive impact on the profitability of all Ag sectors, fuel, fertilizer, distribution *The flipside is that ethanol prices are collapsing on lower gasoline prices, inventories up from 17.5 to 20.20 million barrels *Extreme cold weather boosting winter kill rates in the Midwest *US grain now the world’s most expensive, thanks to strong dollar *Volatility has gone out of the market, January USDA report was neutral, look elsewhere for better trades *Focus on 2015, but it will be another record crop without extreme weather

72. (CORN) –

73. (SOYB)-

74. Ag Commodities ETF (DBA)

75. Real Estate-Looking Soft, But Better Next Year *Ultra low 3.89% 30 year interest rates cause mortgage applications to pop 49% last, refi’s soar by 66%, and jumbo refi’s to rocket 400% *Price cut on mortgage insurance by Obama is another boost *Homebuilders getting hit with sudden collapse of entry level Texas market *October S&P Case Shiller shows 4.5% YOY price gains in 20 cities *December wage hike could finally give real estate the spur it needs.

76. October S&P/Case–Shiller Home Price Index +14% YOY down to +4.5%, Still Slowing

77. KB Homes (KBH) 27% fall in 2 days on weak Texas sales

78. US Home Construction Index (ITB)

79. Trade Sheet So What Do We Do About All This? *Stocks- buy the dips, with technology and health care leading, we’re running to new highs *Bonds- stand aside, its gone crazy *Commodities-stand aside until global economy recovers *Currencies- sell every Euro rally forever, and the yen too *Precious Metals –there may be a short term trade here *Volatility-is peaking, get ready to sell *The Ags –stand aside until next season *Real estate- stand aside, the dead cat bounce is done

80. To buy strategy luncheon tickets Please go to: www.madhedgefundtrader.com Next Strategy Webinar 12:00 Wednesday, February 4, 2015 Live from San Francisco, CA www.madhedgefundtrader.com Good Luck and Good Trading !