1. Baseline projections of European air quality up to 2020 M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes, Z. Klimont, K. Kupiainen, W. Winiwarter, W. Schöpp

2. Contents Driving forces Emission projections Air pollution impacts Uncertainties The wider context Conclusions

3. Driving forces CAFE baseline projections –PRIMES energy projections with further climate measures –CAPRI agricultural projections, pre-CAP reform

4. Economic drivers assumed for the PRIMES “with climate measures” energy projection

5. Emissions Emission projections developed with the RAINS model Assuming implementation of present emission control legislation Ignoring implications of NEC and AQ Daughter directives

6. Land-based emissions “With climate measures” baseline projection, EU-25

7. Emissions from sea regions ----- EU-15 ----- New Member States ---- Sea regions SO 2 NO x

8. Impacts Health impacts of PM Health impacts of O 3 Vegetation impacts of O 3 Acidification of forest soils Acidification of semi-natural ecosystems Acidification of lakes Eutrophication of terrestrial ecosystems

9. Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months] Provisional calculations with generic assumptions on urban increments

10. Premature deaths attributable to ozone [cases/year] Provisional calculations with 50*50 km grid average concentrations

11. Percent of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads

12. Semi-natural ecosystems (e.g., Natura2000) with acid deposition above critical loads [km 2 ]

13. Percent of lake catchments area with acid deposition above critical loads

14. Percent of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads for eutrophication

15. What will be the situation in 2020? Remaining air quality impacts Major sources of emissions

16. Remaining problem areas in 2020 Light blue = no risk Forests – acid dep. Semi-natural – acid dep.Freshwater – acid dep. Health - PMHealth+vegetation - ozoneVegetation – N dep.

17. Sources of primary PM2.5 emissions “With climate measures” scenario, EU-15

18. Sources of NO x emissions “With climate measures” scenario, EU-25

19. Sources of VOC emissions “With climate measures” scenario, EU-25

20. Sources of SO 2 emissions “With climate measures” scenario, EU-25

21. Uncertainties Four types of uncertainties highlighted by the RAINS review team: Lack of scientific understanding Assumptions, simplifications etc. in the handling of data and the design of the RAINS compartment models Statistical variance in input data, etc. Socio-economic and technological development

22. (1) Lack in scientific understanding PM Health impacts Coal, oilWoodDiesel, gasolineOther Total PM2.5 emissions Black carbon 0 300 600 900 1200 1500 20002005201020152020 0 300 600 900 1200 1500 20002005201020152020 CAFE baseline emission projections for PM EU-15 [kt]

23. (2) Model design Spatial resolution is critical Urban increment of PM2.5 (year 2000) Provisional City-Delta results (µg/m 3 ) Urban low-level PM2.5 emissions

24. (3) Statistical variance in data Inter-annual meteorological variability of PM2.5 19991997 20002003 Grid average concentrations, annual mean [µg/m 3 ] from known anthropog. sources excluding sec. org. aerosols. Calculations with emissions for the year 2000

25. (4) Uncertainties in socio-economic development Range of the 3 CAFE baseline emission projections [kt] ----- EU-15 ---- New Member States

26. The wider context Long-term trends Hemispheric background

27. Long-term trends of EU-25 emissions “with climate measures”, relative to year 2000 [= 100%]

28. Increase in background ozone “ Current legislation” scenario, 2000-2030 [ppbv] Emission projections of NOx, CO, CH4: IIASA, TM3 model runs: JRC-IES

29. Conclusions Emissions will further decline But: Air quality remains threat to human health Sustainable conditions for vegetation will not be reached Relevance of sources will change Ship emissions will surpass those from land-based EU sources Energy projections will influence future emissions and emission control costs

31. Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months] Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5 Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies Provisional calculations with generic assumptions on urban increments 2000 2020

32. Health-relevant ozone concentrations [SOMO35, ppb.days] 2000 2020 50*50 km grid average concentrations Average of computations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

33. Vegetation-relevant ozone concentrations AOT40 [ppm.hours]m 2000 2020 Critical level for forests = 5 ppm.hours Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

34. Acid deposition to forests Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition, Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies 2000 2020

35. Percentage of catchments area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies Acid deposition to freshwater bodies 2000 2020

36. Excess of critical loads for eutrophication Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads, using grid-average deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies 2000 2020

37. Acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems including HABITAT areas Percentage of area of semi-natural ecosystems with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies 2000 2020