1. Assessing Predictions of CME Time- of-Arrival and 1 AU Speed to Observations Angelos Vourlidas Vourlidas- SHINE 20121

2. STEREO Integrates Closely Remote & In-Situ Observations Lynch et al 2010 Vourlidas- SHINE 20122

3. Many Methods for Measuring CMEs in 3D! Direct Reconstruction – Forward Modeling (Thernisien et al, Wood et al) Geometric techniques – Triangulation Using images (H-t) Using J-maps (ε- t) (Liu et al 10)J-maps Using masses (Colaninno & Vourlidas 09) Using polarization (de Koning et al 09) – Point-P (Kahler & Webb ‘07) – Fixed-φ (Sheeley et al. ‚99) – Harmonic Mean (Lugaz et al `09) – Self-similar expansion (Möstl & Davies, 2012) Pφ H-M Vourlidas- SHINE 20123

4. Kinematic Model of the Apr. 26 CME NOTE: This is a kinematic model for the leading edge of the flux rope component, not the front ahead of it. Vourlidas- SHINE 20124 Slide courtesy of B. Wood

5. Speed/ToA depends on fitting method 1. black plus signs - front height from GCS model. 2. gray bars - estimated measurement error. (COR1 = 1, COR2 = 2, HI1=5, HI2 = 10 Rs). 3.dotted vertical line - arrival time of CME in situ. 4.green line - smooth spline fit with linear extrapolation to 1AU using the mean velocity of the last 2 hours of spline fit 5.green dashed line - spline speed 6.blue line – 2 nd order fit ; dashed line – 2nd order speed 7.red line – 1 st order fit ; dashed line – 1 st order speed Colaninno thesis (ArXiv) Colaninno & Vourlidas (in prep) Vourlidas- SHINE 20125

6. More examples Vourlidas- SHINE 20126

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8. Comparison of ToA & Speed Predictions to Observations Vourlidas- SHINE 20128

9. Current state of arrival predictions PredictedObservedDeltaS/C Nov 15, 2007Nov 19 07:50Nov 19 13:50 -8 STB Apr 26, 2008Apr 30 03:00April 29 15:30 +12 STB Jun 2, 2008Jun 6 20:00June 6 22:00-2STB Dec 12, 2008Dec 16 16:00Dec 16 10:00+6ACE (front) Dec 17 08:00Dec 17 04:00+4ACE (back) Jan 22, 2009Jan 26 01:00Jan 25 22:00+3ACE from Lugaz et al (2010) and Liu et al (2010a,b) Current Earth-impact accuracy: 6.7 hours From Colaninno PhD Thesis Vourlidas- SHINE 20129

10. Open Issues Fitting method/function for Height-time curves? Geometry of CME front and LOS? Interaction with ambient solar wind. – Rotations, deflections, etc. Sky plane HI-2 CME at Earth in projection ToA Error due to Projection Vourlidas- SHINE 201210

11. Comparing Imaging to in-situ: ICME Rotations and Deflections In-situ Imaging Isavnin et al (2012) CME rotate CW in the inner heliosphere CME deflect towards equator in the inner heliosphere

12. 3D CIR model HI2-A Synthetic HI2-A image HI2-B Synthetic HI2-B image Imaging CIRs with HI2: The 2008 January 31 CI Study the Evolution of CIRs in 3D Wood et al 2011 Vourlidas- SHINE 201212

13. The following equations define the shape of a 2-D CIR shape in cylindrical coordinates in 3-D space, where ψ  [0,2π] and η  [-1,1]. A 3-D density distribution is then derived by assuming a Gaussian density profile normal to the 2-D CIR shape, such that if  (r, ,z) is the distance of a point from the CIR midplane, then For our morphological purposes, we simply set n max =1. For the 2008 January 31 CIR, our best fit has the following parameters: This CIR maps back to a bifurcated streamer near the Sun, which surrounds a coronal hole. Building a 3-D CIR  = 0.802 AU/rad  C = 6.091 rad  = 0.7  = 1.48 rad  n = 0.0098 AU Wood et al 2011 Vourlidas- SHINE 201213

14. t1t1 t2t2 A B t1t1 t2t2 Visibility of CIRs Sheeley and Rouillard (2010) CIRs are best seen from region t2, which from Ahead is further away than from Behind Vourlidas- SHINE 201214

15. Using SECCHI/HI to predict CIR arrival ACE: Peak= 10 cm -3, FWHM +31h SECCHI: Peak= 9.5 cm -3, FWHM +58h BUT ACE gives warning of 20-60 min. SECCHI gives warning of (at least) 24h. HI imaging is a better tool than in-situ: Sees streams several days before Earth arrival. Situated outside Sun-Earth line (optimal angle > 40 deg). Reconstruct 3D properties and origin. Davis et al 2012 Geomagnetic response vs CIR arrival predicted from SECCHI/HI observations. Hence, an L5 mission is the best platform for CIR SWx and Research. Vourlidas- SHINE 201215