1. L/O/G/O Modernization and Fertility: A Critical Essay Richard A. Easterlin Presented by: Sundari Budiani

2. Theoritical and Empirical Implications Hub. antara Modernisasi & Fertilitas Pengertian Modernisasi Contents 2 3 4 Pendahuluan 1

3. ●What is the most challenging problem in the social study of human fertility? It is the causes of the shift from high to low fertility during the process of modernization ●Preceding papers  supply, demand, or regulation costs ●Present paper  clarify the conceptual links between modernization & fertility

4. Economic: sustained raise in real output per capita. & changes in techniques of producing, transporting & distributing goods 1 2 3 The Nature of Modernization Modernization defined as transformation in: Sosial & demographic: involves significant alterations in fertility, mortality & migration; in place of residence; in family size & structure; educational system; & public health services. Human personality: increase openness to new experience, increased independence from parental authority.

5. Conceptual links between Modernization & Fertility Behavior Basic Determinants Reg. Cost (RC) Demand of Children (Cd) Supply of Children (Cn) Deliberate Fert Control Var. Other Proximate Determinants Children Ever Born Proximate Determinants Basic Determinants  Proximate Determinants  Children Ever Born

6. Links from Modernization to Potential Supply, Demand & Reg. Cost Aspects of Modernization Factors Trough Which Fertility Control is Influenced Demand (Cd)Supply (Cn)Reg. Cost (RC) TastesIncomePricesNat. Fert Surv. Prospe cts Subj. costs Market costs Better public health & med care ++ Growth in formal education --++-- Urbanization ---- New consumer goods - New fert. Control methods --

7. Links PS, D & RC to Fert. Control & Fertility  Modernization  lower the demand for children  introduces new goods and life styles (the households shift the expenditure toward new purposes inc. Having & raising children).  Modernization  fertility control, e.g: modern condom and improved methods of induced abortion, pill and IUD.  Modernization process shifts typical household from a situation where childbearing is a matter ‘taken for granted’ to one that poses difficult problems of individual choice regarding the limitation of family size.  Modernization shifts motivation of individual couples and regulation costs push them to practice deliberate family size limitation.

8. Empirical Findings Time Surviving Children per Married Woman Beginning of fertility decline in A Beginning of fertility decline in B Hypothetical Trends in Supply (Cn) and Demand (Cd) in Two Countries and the Timing of Fertility Decline C n A = C n B CdACdA CdBCdB

9. The Trend in Fertility Differentials by Socioeconomic Status (SES) High Surviving Children per Married Woman Low Surviving Children per Married Woman Education CdCd CnCn (c) Premodern(d) Early Modern (a) Premodern(b) Early Modern Hypothetical Relationship Between Supply (Cn) and Demand (Cd) and Education and Age in Premodern and Early Modern Settings Low Education High 15-19 40-44 Age 15-19 Age 40-44 CdCd CdCd CdCd CnCn CnCn CnCn

10. L/O/G/O Thank You!