1. Engineering Management & Systems proudly presents
Probability and Statistics for Engineers
ENM 500
Your instructor for this course: Chuck Ebeling
A best course, ever!

2. Course Description
This is an introductory course in the concepts and applications of probability and statistics.
Emphasis is on applications and examples that an engineer or analyst would encounter in practice.
Probability is presented as the fundamental tool for modeling uncertainty as well as the bridge between a population of data and its samples.
Descriptive statistics is introduced as the vehicle for describing and characterizing data.
Inferential statistics and related statistical methods provide the means of generalizing to a population from a sample thus enabling solutions and conclusions to be reached that otherwise would be not obtained.

3. Course Objectives describe the basic concepts of probability,
Upon completion of the course, each student should be able to:
describe the basic concepts of probability,
obtain and interpret analytical results using state-of-the-art software,
understand, describe, and apply parameter estimation, hypothesis testing, statistical inference, linear regression, analysis of variance,
identify possible applications and formulate appropriate models,
pursue further study in this area through electives, self-study, or review of the literature.

4. Class Meetings Sec01: 11:30 AM – 12:45 PM, KL 304
If I signed up for the internet, can I also attend a campus class? Please!!
Monday and Wednesdays
Sec01: 11:30 AM – 12:45 PM, KL 304
or via Internet Distance Learning

5. Important Contact Info and Websites
Phone / fax:
(973) / (937)
Office / office hours:
KL 365D
9:00 – 11:00 am & 2:00- 4:00 pm Mon.-Thur.
Course WebSite: (need password):
Department Website:
Webex Distance Learning Site:

6. Textbook
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers (fourth edition) by Montgomery and Runger ISBN:
Supplementary reference: Probability and Statistics: with Integrated Software Routines (Hardcover) by Ronald Deep

7. Prerequisites knowledge of algebra matrix algebra calculus
computer literacy
MTH 168, 169, 218 and MTH 302, 
or equivalent
or successful completion of ENM 503

8. These are good grading devices.
Midterm %
Turn‑in exercises %
Final Exam %
These are good grading devices.
Grade Distribution A A- B+ B B- C

9. The Road Ahead – 16 weeks of fun and excitement!
Class Schedule:
Week
Subject
Aug 26
Introduction
1-1 thru 1-4
Aug 31/Sep 2
Sample Spaces and Random Events
2-1 thru 2-7
Sep 7
Labor Day – no class
Sep 9/14
Discrete Random Variables
2-8, 3-13-6, 3-7-1, 3-9
Sep 16/21
Continuous Random Variables
4-1 thru 4-6, 4-8, 4-10
Sep 23/28
Joint Probability Distributions
5-1, 5-3
Sep 30/Oct 5
Continuous Joint Distributions & Linear Combinations
5-2, 5-5
Oct 7/12
Random Sampling
6-1 thru 6-6
Oct 8-11
Midterm Break – time to study for midterm exam
Oct 14/21
Sampling Distributions and Parameter Estimation
7-1 thru 7-3, 7-4.1, 7-4.2
Oct 19
Midterm Chapters 1 - 6
2 hours in duration

10. More Road Ahead – 16 weeks of fun and excitement continues!
Oct 26/28
Statistical Intervals
8-1 thru 8-6
Nov 2/4
Hypothesis Tests
9-1 thru 9-5
Nov 9/11
Two Sample Statistics
10-1 thru 10-6
Nov 16/18
Simple Linear Regression
11-1 thru 11-8
Nov 23
Multiple Linear Regression
12-1 thru 12-2
Nov 25
Thanksgiving Break – no class
Nov 30/Dec 2
Multiple Linear Regression / ANOVA
12-3 thru 12-6
Dec 7/9
ANOVA / final exam review
13-1 thru 13-4
Dec 14
Final Exam Chapters 7 – 13
2 hours in duration

11. You may work any of the problems from the textbook for your own educational enjoyment. Solutions to the odd numbered problems can be found in the back of the book. Selected problems from each chapter will be turned in for a grade.
What about homework?

12. Our Very First Turn-in Assignment
Problems
Due Date
Web submission
Chapter 2
34, 36, 62, 70 a-b, 82 b-c, 94, 114, 122, 128, 132, 134, 144, 166
Sep 9
Chap2
Prob/Stat students collaborating
on their homework assignment

13. What about the computer? Do we need one?
The computer will be useful for many of the homework problems and essential for some of the problems.
What about the computer? Do we need one?

14. What about the exams. Will they be hard?
Exams will be open book and involve problem solving. Your best preparation is to do the homework!
What about the exams. Will they be hard?

15. Software Excel (with VBA) Minitab Internet (online) calculators
Rent Minitab for $29.99 per semester (6 months)
Perpetual copy - $99.99
Internet (online) calculators

16. prob and stat This all sounds great Chuck, but what is this
thing anyway? Is it some kind of medical term or what?

17. What’s this prob and stat all about?
The art and science
of making decisions
under uncertainty
“I don’t have all the facts.
But find me a decision which
is best for my organization.”
profits

18. Statistics Defined
Body of techniques which deal with the collection, summarization, presentation, and analysis of quantitative data
Branch of applied mathematics concerned with the design of experiments or sampling procedures, the analysis of data, and the making of inferences about a population from information in a sample.
Body of theory and methodology employed in analyzing and using numerical evidence to choose one among several alternative decisions or actions when not all of the data is known or available.
Descriptive Statistics – the summarization and presentation of data
Inferential Statistics – generalizations made from a sample
Descriptive Statistics Inferential Statistics
Frequency Distributions Sampling Theory
Measures of Central Tendency Point and Confidence Interval Estimation
Measures of Variability Hypothesis Testing

19. What does statistics do for me?
provides a tool for dealing with uncertainty in making decisions
probability models and inferential statistics
provides a means of dealing with large amounts of data
descriptive statistics
provides efficient techniques for obtaining information
Sampling theory
Regression analysis
Experimental design

20. The Engineering (scientific) Method
Define
Problem
Identify
relevant
factors
Formulate a hypothesis
(construct statistical model)
Collect Data
(conduct experiments)
Draw Conclusions
(solve model)
Test Hypothesis

21. Research - gain knowledge by:
Chance or intuition - fortuitous glimpse of truth obtain with no conscious effort or plan
Trial and error
Generalization from experience
Logic - reason things out
Scientific inquiry - the careful and exhaustive investigation of all ascertainable evidence bearing upon a definable problem leading to the solution of the problem.
student’s approach
this
one!

22. Some Basic Definitions
Population – the totality of the elements or objects of interest
e.g. the set of all ENM students
sample – any subset of the population
e.g. 20 ENM students selected at random
parameter – a descriptive measure of a characteristic of a population
e.g. the average (mean) GPA of all ENM students
statistic - a descriptive measure of a characteristic of a sample
e.g. the average (mean) GPA of 20 ENM 500 students selected at random
random sample – a sample in which all elements of the population have an equal chance of being selected as an element of the sample

23. Two types of statistical analysis
Deductive – given a population, what will the sample look like?
Inductive (inferential) – given a sample, what can be said about the population?

24. I just don’t have the time or personnel to collect all that data.
Why Sample?
I just don’t have the time or personnel to collect all that data.
Limited Resources
money
time
personnel
Limited Data
Destructive Testing

25. The Big Picture (a rare insight)
deduction
population
descriptive
statistics
parameter
(e.g. mean)
sample
descriptive
statistics
statistic
(e.g. sample
mean)
probability
theory
induction (inferential statistics)

26. Let’s go visit the course Website
Visit it often
Contains:
schedule
presentations (ppt files)
class recordings
download material (xls, pdf, doc)
homework assignments & submission forms
notices (bulletin board)
student homework & exam grades
Let’s go visit the course Website

27. Some Administrative Points
Exams
attempt to make exams like the chapter problems
It is a good text. I will follow it. If you master its material, we have succeeded.
You can never work too many homework or example problems.
Open book and notes on exams.
Computers ok
Pace of Class
I keep moving unless there are questions – what else can I do?
There are no bad questions. If you are wondering about something, you can bet several others are as well.
I am never afraid to ask the obvious question – sometimes you need to hear the answer.
If we have to, we will work to get answers to your question off line.

28. This way to the prob and stat …
I cannot wait to get started on this course. What is our first topic?
This way to the prob and stat …