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Published byElvin Hudson Modified over 9 years ago
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Wellington: Lifting our Sights October 2008
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What do these two men have in common?
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NZ’s GDP per capita is sliding rapidly relative to other nations 1950 1.Qatar 2.Kuwait 3.United Arab Emirates 4.United States 5.Switzerland 6.New Zealand 7.Luxembourg 8.Venezuela 9.Australia 10.Canada 2007 1.Qatar 2.Luxembourg 3.Norway 4.Brunei Darussalam 5.Singapore 6.United States 7.Ireland 8.Hong Kong SAR 9.Switzerland 10.Kuwait … 32.New Zealand 2025 (Projected) 1.Luxembourg 2.Singapore 3.Qatar 4.Hong Kong SAR 5.Norway 6.Bahrain 7.Ireland 8.Kuwait 9.United States 10.Oman … 33.Botswana … 42.Kazakhstan … 47.New Zealand Sources: 1950 GDP per capita rankings from The Conference Board & Groningen Growth and Development Centre, Total Economy Database (Sept 2008) 2007 GDP per capita rankings from IMF World Economic Outlook Database (April 2008) 2025 projections based on extrapolation of long term real GDP per capita growth forecasts from IMF World Economic Outlook Database (April 2008) IMF rankings are adjusted for purchasing power parity Morrison & Co analysis World Rankings: GDP per Capita (PPP)
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We are working long hours, but our productivity is falling behind our peers 7 th Highest 20 th Highest 21 st Highest 12 th Highest GDP per Hour Worked Hours Worked Per Worker ********** NZ’s Ranking Amongst 24 OECD Countries: 1960 – 2007 (1) (1) Includes all OECD countries that existed as independent states in 1960 (ie excludes Germany, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland & Slovakia) Source: The Conference Board and Groningen Growth and Development Centre, Total Economy Database, September 2008
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“New Zealand needs a vision that will excite and motivate every citizen to reach new and heretofore unheard of heights. There is no reason why this country cannot be one of the most prosperous nations in the world and a model for others.” Dr Michael Porter, 1998 It’s time to lift our sights
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We should aim to be back in the World’s GDP per Capita Top 10 by 2025 1980 27 th Wealthiest 2007 32 nd Wealthiest 2025? 1980-2007 1.4% pa real growth in GDP per capita, slipping further down the international rankings 2007-2025 More of the same, or change the game? “Back Where We Belong” 4.5% pa growth in GDP per capita Return to the Top 10 by 2025 “Beaten by Borat” 1.5% pa growth in GDP per capita (in line with IMF forecasts) 47 th Wealthiest Nation by 2025 Fall below Botswana and Kazakhstan NZ’s World Ranking in GDP per Capita (PPP) Sources: 1980 to 2007 data from IMF World Economic Outlook Database (April 2008) 2025 projection based on extrapolation of long term real GDP per capita growth forecasts from IMF World Economic Outlook Database (April 2008)
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Korea, Ireland, Taiwan and Singapore have all shown this level of growth is possible * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Real GDP per Capita growth rate required for NZ to return to Top 10 by 2025 Real Annual Growth in GDP per Capita of the World’s Wealthiest Nations: 1987-2007 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (April 2008) Sample is world’s 40 wealthiest countries by GDP per capita (PPP), excluding those that did not exist as independent states in 1987
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What role can Wellington play? “Since many of the essential determinants of economic performance appear to reside in regions, national policies will be necessary but not sufficient.” - Michael Porter
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Successful cities set a virtuous cycle in motion Source: The Boston Consulting Group Business Activity Increases Wealth Is Created + Tax Base Grows Civic Amenities And Infrastructure Improve Quality Of Life Improves Skilled Labour Supply Grows New Businesses Emerge, Established Business Grow Well-paid Jobs Are Created
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wild at heart Wellington Airport
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Insert image of Wellington Airport today
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Working together to connect Wellington to the world 12 * * * *** * * * WIAL Passenger Numbers: 1998-08 (Thousands of Pax, Year to March)
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- NBR, October 2, 2008 The Public Transport Management Act will allow councils to redefine “partnership” as a “Victorian marriage” with the councils as “father” Councils will determine what consumers need and design services and fares to meet these perceived needs They will then tender closely-specified service contracts to private operators Operators will win contracts by offering minimum compliance at least cost Councils (i.e. ratepayers) will carry revenue risk from patronage fluctuations Councils will attempt to ensure contract compliance with a battery of “sticks and carrots” and costly systems to monitor performance.
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In closing… The time has come for New Zealand to commit to an ambitious, measurable goal Wellington needs to set its own ambitious, measurable goal - Given what we have to work with, we should set ourselves a growth target higher than the overall New Zealand goal The community needs to understand the virtuous cycle - We need economic growth so we can afford the social, environmental and cultural elements of our vision for Wellington All sectors have a role to play, we need a spirit of genuine partnership - Public and private sector pursuing the same goal… - …But recognising and respecting each others’ respective roles
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