1. Seminar of Government Experts Indian Perspective Surya P. Sethi Adviser (Energy) Planning Commission, Govt. of India

2. Roadmap of Presentation  Have Annex I countries met their commitments?  What GHG-forecasting models are good for?  What India is doing to address GHG emissions?  Sustainable lifestyles

3. Trends in meeting Annex I Commitments

4. Source: UNFCCC 2003 Trends in aggregate GHG emissions, 1990-2000

5. Trends of CO 2 Equivalent Emissions Sharp decrease for Russian Federation Essentially flat for EU-15 Significant increase for Australia, Canada, Netherlands, Japan, USA

6. Transfer of finance  GEF allocation during 2 nd replenishment period USD 648.31 mn Against a pledge of USD 2750 mn  Co-financing ratio of 4.7:1(in 279 GEF climate change projects). However all co-financing: Not “new and additional” finance Often sourced from host country  Only 7.2% of bilateral ODA commitment of DAC of OECD for climate change between 1998-2000

7. Transfer of technology (TT)  National communication reporting of technology transfer Very few examples of actual successful “hard” TT Information networks, capacity building reported as TT Programmes reported include those for improving trade relations (e.g. Asia Eco-best, TACIS)  Commercial sales equated with technology transfers

8. Forecasts Using CGE Models

9. Different CGE Models run with same scenarios give widely varying results (e.g. Indian share of global emissions) Source: Weyant & Parikh, 2004

10. Qualitative result: carbon intensity of GDP for India Source: Weyant & Parikh, 2004

11. India’s Initiatives

12.  Improving energy efficiency  Promoting hydro and renewable energy  Power sector reforms  Promotion of clean coal technologies  Energy and infrastructure development  Coal washing  Cleaner and lesser carbon intensive fuel for transport  Environmental quality management Key Energy Programmes and policies

13. India’s Energy Policies: Scenarios simulated by MARKAL (2001-2036)  Baseline (BAU Without Energy Initiatives): Base year 2001, GDP growth 8%, IPCC emissions factors, Official demographic projections, 8% discount rate  S5: Baseline with GDP growth 6.7% Energy Scenarios with baseline assumptions  S1: Cleaner fuels for power generation  S2: Electricity for all by 2012, decentralized renewable options efficient cook stoves  S3: 20% increase in share of public road transport Greater CNG use in buses, taxis, 3-W vehicles  S4: S1+S2+S3

14. Change in India’s CO 2 intensity as a result of Government policy initiatives TERI analysis

16. Lifestyle Differences

17. Source: TERI analysis (various data sources)

18. Average rate of recycling (%);excludes reuse GHG emissions from waste (gm/’000$GDPppp) Municipal solid waste Source: TERI Analysis, various data sources

19. Estimated CO 2 emissions from passenger transport (gm/passenger-km) Source: TERI Analysis, various data sources

20. Conclusions  Annex I I commitments not met – emissions still rising, transfers of finance/technology minimal.  Numerical forecasts of relative or absolute growth in GHG emissions from models vary widely and hence cannot drive policies  However, qualitative insights if replicated by a range of models are useful  Low per-capita GHG emissions in India are due to sustainable lifestyles & not poverty alone  India is doing enough in mitigation of GHGs. Technological and Financial barriers to achieving identified energy initiatives must be removed