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Published byKristopher Booker Modified over 9 years ago
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General Economy
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Real GDP Growth Source: IMF – January 2009
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W Texas Crude Oil Price Source: Department of Energy – January 2009
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US $ vs Cotton Importers
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US Unemployment Source: BLS – Monthly Seasonally Adj
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US Federal Budget Source: CBO – January 2009
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Int’l Cotton Outlook
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China Cotton Supply & Use
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India Cotton Supply & Use
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Selected Countries 08/0909/10Change Net Imports(Million Bales) Mexico1.161.15-0.01 Turkey2.342.770.43 Indonesia2.142.240.10 Net Exports West Africa2.232.15-0.08 Brazil2.021.77-0.25 Australia0.901.430.53
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Int’l Cotton Supply & Use 08/0909/10Change (Million Bales) Production96.892.9-3.9 Mill Use108.3109.91.5 Loss-2.5 0.0 Ending Stocks54.751.3-3.4 Net Imports11.511.2-0.3
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US Cotton Exports
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US Cotton Market
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US Mill Use Apparent Retail Consumption Down Expiration of China Quotas at End of ‘08 Economic Assistance in Farm Bill
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US Cotton Retail Use
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US Textile Imports (2008 Jan-Nov)
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US Cotton Mill Use
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Southeast1,923 1,580 -17.8 Mid-South 1,876 1,438 -23.4 Southwest5,205 4,746 -8.8 West292 202 -31.0 ALL UPLAND 9,296 7,965 -14.3 ALL ELS174 142 -18.6 ALL COTTON9,470 8,107 -14.4 2009 U.S. Planting Intentions 20082009% Actual Intended Change Total may not add due to rounding. Thousand Acres
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US Cotton Production * National Average Abandonment Rate: 9.4% ** National Average Yield: 834 lbs./harvested acre
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US Cotton Supply & Use 08/0909/10Change (Million Bales) Production13.0412.76-0.28 Mill Use4.103.90-0.20 Exports11.5011.18-0.32 Ending Stocks7.505.19-2.31
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Summary
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World Cotton Supply & Use
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World Stocks/Use & A Index
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Recap 2008/09 – Uncommon Outcomes –Lower Production –Reduced Demand due to Economic Situation –Prices Fall 2009/10 – Uncertain Opportunities –Lower Area & Production –Demand Recovery Depends on General Economy –Decline in Stocks, but…
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