2. 1 Access and Success Trends at the California Community Colleges Patrick Perry Vice Chancellor of Technology, Research, & Information Systems, CCCCO

3. 2 Who Are You? Why Should We Believe You? Brad Pitt looks. Vin Diesel physique. I have an enormous…..database. We run the largest postsecondary database in the US…and are experts in tracking student movement and progress.

4. 3 Today’s Agenda The Biggest Issues Facing the CCC’s 1. Managing Access, Enrollment, and Success in a Boom/Bust cycle 2. Navigating the Calls for Change

5. 4 Our Horse is Tied Up to a Post Sunk in Quicksand Or, Managing the “Boom and Bust” cycle: We are highly dependent on a single source of revenue That single source of revenue is highly volatile That single source of revenue runs countercyclical to our actual demand

6. 5 Our Horse is Tied Up… Enrollment Management in an open- access environment is complex “Boom and Bust” budgets are an external problem, but cause internal friction It is hard to get to other issues without a stable foundation

7. 6 CCC System: Here We Go Again We are back to “Bust”. We’ve seen this before, we can predict what’s going to happen.

8. 7 Access Cycle  Two prior recessions:  Early 1990’s  Peak (92-93): 2.262 million students  Trough (94-95): 2.076 m  Return (97-98): 2.307 m  System lost 186,000 students

9. 8 Access Cycle  Early 2000’s  Peak (02-03): 2.793 million students  Trough (04-05): 2.482 m  Return (08-09): 2.895 m  System lost 311,000 students

10. 9 Access Cycle  Today  Peak (08-09): 2.9 m  (09-10): not likely a huge headcount loss, but a huge unmet demand turned away  (10-11): likely significant headcount loss  (11-12): likely some headcount loss  First cuts lead to rationing; second cuts lead to headcount loss

11. 10 What’s Been Cut? TermSectionsClass Size Spr 06170,20726.4 Spr 07174,15226.3 Spr 08178,19827.2 Spr 09176,42229.4

12. 11 What’s Been Cut? TermSectionsClass Size Sum 0650,52026.6 Sum 0753,38927.6 Sum 0855,83828.8 Sum 0939,07730.1

13. 12 Access Cycle  Someone gets squeezed  Number of First-Time CCC Students  (01-02): 962,000  (02-03): 961,000  (03-04): 831,000  (04-05): 824,000  This, in turn, reduces the number of continuing students the following year

14. 13 Getting Out of CCC’s Transfers to CSU: 2006-07: 54,379 2007-08: 54,970 2008-09: 49,768 (-5,202) 2009-10: could be another 2,000-5,000 less.

15. 14 CCC Transfer Volumes Sector 02-0303-0404-0505-0606-0707-08% chg CSU50,74648,32153,69552,64154,39154,9718.3% UC12,27512,53913,11413,51013,87413,90913.3% ISP17,08319,67320,17419,53020,07123,32236.5% OOS11,63812,61813,14013,39913,95214,46424.3% Total91,69793,151100,12399,080102,288106,66616.3%

16. 15 Transfers: In State (not CSU/UC), 07-08 UNIVERSITY OF PHOENIX 8,825 NATIONAL UNIVERSITY 1,185 CHAPMAN UNIVERSITY 960 DEVRY INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY 925 ITT TECHNICAL INSTITUTE 789 UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 687 ACADEMY OF ART UNIVERSITY 597 AZUSA PACIFIC UNIVERSITY 505 CALIFORNIA BAPTIST UNIVERSITY 405 FRESNO PACIFIC UNIVERSITY 399

17. 16 The Rise of The Phoenix 96-972,190 97-982,871 98-993,430 99-004,276 00-015,160 01-025,716 02-036,638 03-048,388 04-058,803 05-068,352 06-078,868 07-088,825

18. 17 Who Transfers to Phoenix? EthnicityUCCSUPhoenix Asian29.3%14.2%4.6% African American2.4%5.2%16.8% Hispanic/Latino13.6%23.8%28.6% White39.1%43.6%37.5% Percent Hisp/AfrAm16.0%29.0%45.4%

19. 18 Delivery Mode Last Year: Growth in higher ed student population: 1.2%. Growth in online enrollment: 17%. (Chron of Higher Ed, Sloan Study)

20. 19 MPC-Transfer (CSU/UC) Transfer Volume: 05-06: 302 06-07: 264 07-08: 294 08-09: 261 Another 106 to ISP’s: Phoenix (28), Chapman (13), Academy of Art (7), DeVry (7), USF (6)

21. 20 MPC-Transfer Rates Transfer rates above State average and always above Expected Transfer Rate

22. 21 Success Cycle  Fairly independent to access, far less volatile  Course Success Rate  F1992 All: 66% BS: 61%  F2001 All: 66% BS: 59%  F2008 All: 66% BS: 56%

23. 22 Current Mantra of “Change”  Need more graduates (volume)  Need greater college going rate  Need greater transfer/degree production rate  to achieve greater transfer/degree production volume  “CCC’s have focused only on access and not on success”

24. 23 Degree Production YearAA/ASCertTotal 199350,43421,53471,968 199556,07724,62680,703 199760,52732,75793,284 199964,02832,76296,790 200167,12440,234107,358 200373,74644,811118,557 200578,08442,918121,002 200782,66545,692128,357 200982,47748,528131,005

25. 24 Degree Production  From 92-93 to 08-09, headcount went up 28%.  AA/AS production went up 64%.  Cert production went up 125%.  Total degree production went up 82%.

26. 25 Transfers  From 92-93 to 08-09, headcount went up 28%.  Transfers to UC and CSU have gone up 35% since 1992-93.  UC/CSU are also constrained by budgets.  Transfers to other segments are even higher.  Transfers to the University of Phoenix have gone up 450%.

27. 26 MPC-Success You have 2 distinct populations: Older, educated, white to the South Younger, diverse, less educated to the North Opened new center to the North to meet needs % Hispanic population jumped from: 12% in 06-07 to 19% in 08-09

28. 27 MPC-Success “Progress & Achievement Rate” shows slight decline But transfer directed rate remains steady- CSU and UC aren’t helping you High Voc course completion rates High term to term persistence rates

29. 28 Tough Decisions All colleges had to make the tough decisions: what is the priority during a period of rationing? The only silver lining: At least YOU the College got to make the decisions

30. 29 Properly Navigating the “Call for Change” CCC system is ground zero for a nationwide “call to action” in higher education reform There is intense pressure upon us to radically change the business model There is intense pressure to retain what we value in our business model

31. 30 Navigating “Change” “The only constant is change.”-- Heraclitus, 500BC Many businesses go out of business because they fail to change.

32. 31 Navigating “Change” "Change simply for the sake of change is an abdication of leadership.“ –John Luke Jr.

33. 32 Navigating “Change” DANGER: Everyone is seeking “silver bullets” Fund PE at noncredit rate Pay districts for student outcomes All basic skills must be completed first $60/unit fee Eliminate “casual” students, BA/BS differential Waive 50% law, 75/25 regs for 5 years

34. 33 Navigating “Change” On the other hand: 15 years ago, we transferred 2,000 students to U. Phoenix; last year it was 9,000. Our market share is dwindling. The student experience is less than ideal. These are all markers of a need for change…regardless.

35. 34 Navigating “Change” “A crisis is a terrible thing to waste.” –Paul Romer We have an opportunity upon us to improve our business: We can make rash changes and regret them; or We can make temporary changes that give the illusion of reform; or We can make thoughtful changes and grow. Find true justification; this is not a group to perform “experiments” on.

36. 35 Participation vs Outcomes

37. 36 Properties of High Outcome/High Partic. States Strong Statewide Articulation/Transfer Agreements Common Core Curriculum Common Course Numbering AA transfer guarantee or Statewide General Ed guarantee CTE pathways

38. 37 Properties of High Outcome/High Partic. States Strong online student academic planners and support Common assessment tools Statewide Transfer scholarships

39. 38 In Conclusion “Public sentiment is everything. With public sentiment, nothing can fail. Without it, nothing can succeed.” (Abe Lincoln) Our government and the public both value our core missions and our product. Let’s make our own path and not be shown what path others think we should take.