1. Business Finance Michael Dimond

2. Michael Dimond School of Business Administration What CF do stockholders really buy? Dividend? Net Income? Free Cash Flow? To understand cash flow, you must understand financial statements and what the figures represent

3. Michael Dimond School of Business Administration Discounting the cash flows is the easy part… Computing the correct cash flow is a little more complicated. Trying to accurately predict the future (plus or minus a little ) Trying to use accounting figures to show economic reality You must understand what the number represents and what went into it before you can present an accurate valuation. Remember the financial statements? Income statement Balance sheet Statement of cash flows You will be computing cash flows… from financial statements to evaluate existing businesses from pro forma financials to evaluate proposals and scenarios You may need to measure sensitivity to certain inputs What if sales or costs are less than (or more than) expected? What if growth is less than (or more than) expected?

4. Michael Dimond School of Business Administration Cash Flows NOPAT = Net Operating Profit After Taxes EBIT(1-t) OCF = Operating Cash Flow NOPAT + Depreciation Expense Why doesn’t this work: NI + Interest + Depreciation Expense NOTE: Operating Cash Flow is not the same as Cash Flow from Operations FCF = Free Cash Flow OCF – Net Cash Investment in Operating Capital Free Cash Flow: The cash generated which is available to satisfy the needs of lenders and the wants of investors. FCFE = Free Cash Flow for Equity FCF – Net Cash Flow to Debt Free Cash Flow to for Equity: The cash generated which is available to satisfy the wants of investors.

5. Michael Dimond School of Business Administration Working with financial statement data Accounting figures are distorted for several reasons Rules & laws Assumptions & “Generally Accepted Accounting Principles” Inaccuracies & manipulations Financial Analysis tries to get those numbers to represent economic reality Non-cash “expenses” Categorization of revenues and expenses Operating Cash Flow (OCF) is the basic starting point of all valuation efforts Need to understand the figures being used OCF = NOPAT + Depreciation Expense NOPAT = EBIT(1-t) :. OCF = EBIT(1-t) + Depreciation Expense

6. Michael Dimond School of Business Administration EBIT Given a bunch of financial data, how do you compute EBIT? Top down or bottom up? Bottom up is easier to remember Top down helps you understand better Building a pro forma income statement

7. Michael Dimond School of Business Administration Tax Rate Tax expense ÷ EBT (Earnings Before Taxes) EBT is also called Net Profit Before Taxes Average tax rate Marginal tax rate Typical tax rates in finance problems will be 34%, 35% or 40%. This is not true in real life.

8. Michael Dimond School of Business Administration Depreciation What is depreciation? Straightline vs MACRS Why do we adjust for depreciation when computing OCF? What about other non-cash expenses?

9. Michael Dimond School of Business Administration Operating Cash Flow (OCF) EBIT = … NI + Tax + Interest Sales – Direct Costs – Indirect Costs – Depreciation Sales – Total Variable Costs – Total Fixed Costs – Depreciation Tax rate = … Might be given (e.g. 34%, 35%, 40%) Might be derived from Tax ÷ EBT EBT = EBIT - Interest NOPAT = EBIT(1-t) OCF = NOPAT + Depreciation Expense

10. Michael Dimond School of Business Administration

13. Operating Cash Flow (OCF) From the income statement EBIT x (1-t) + Depreciation = OCF 370 x (1-0.4) + 100 = 322

14. Michael Dimond School of Business Administration OCF → FCF FCF = Free Cash Flow Free Cash Flow: The cash generated which is available to satisfy the needs of lenders and the wants of investors. OCF – Net Cash Investment in Operating Capital What is operating capital? Assets used for operating purposes Not financial assets Operating assets can be classified as Fixed Assets and Current Assets Fixed assets are normally capitalized, so depreciation is involved Current Assets are also called Working Capital. We really care about Net Working Capital Net Working Capital is Current Assets – Current Liabilities Are all current liabilities operating items? NWC for our purposes will be limited to operating items only, so… NWC = Current Assets – (Accounts Payable + Accruals) which should be the same as NWC = Current Assets – (Current Liabilities – Non-operating CLs)

15. Michael Dimond School of Business Administration OCF → FCF OCF – Δ GFA – Δ NCA = FCF 322 – 300 – 0 = 22 Net Fixed Assets increased 200, and depreciation was 100, so Δ GFA = 300 How much did current assets change? How much did AP & Accruals change?

16. Michael Dimond School of Business Administration OCF → FCF OCF – ΔGFA – ΔNCA = FCF 322 – 300 – 0 = 22 Current Assets increased 100, so Δ CA = 100 CL OP (AP + Accruals) was 700 in 2011 and 800 in 2012, so Δ CL OP = 100 We need the Net amount, so we subtract: Δ CA - Δ CL OP = Δ NCA 100 - 100 = 0

17. Michael Dimond School of Business Administration Capital Budgeting Decisions To make an objective business decision, we have to understand the scenario, the relevant cash flows, the change in cash flow caused by the decision, and the net present value of those incremental cash flows. At its simplest, it might be like this capital budget proposal: Is life ever that simple?

18. Michael Dimond School of Business Administration Scenario How long is the timeline? What happens, and when? 012345 Sell old machine Buy new machine Install new machine Increase NWC needs Reduced Operating Costs Sell “new” machine Reduce NWC needs Proposal: Reduced Operating Costs Reduced Operating Costs Reduced Operating Costs Reduced Operating Costs

19. Michael Dimond School of Business Administration Relevant Cash Flows What are the cash inflows and outflows? 012345 Sell old machine Buy new machine Install new machine Increase NWC needs Reduced Operating Costs Sell “new” machine Reduce NWC needs Proposal: Reduced Operating Costs Reduced Operating Costs Reduced Operating Costs Reduced Operating Costs

20. Michael Dimond School of Business Administration Relevant Cash Flows What are the cash inflows and outflows? Is that all? We also need to consider the effect which depreciation has on tax expense. 012345 Sell old machine Buy new machine Install new machine Increase NWC needs $264,600 Inflow $1,200,000 Outflow $150,000 Outflow $25,000 Outflow _________________ Io = $1,110,400 Outflow Reduced Op. Costs Sell “new” machine Reduce NWC needs $147,000 Inflow $25,000 Inflow __________________ TV = $172,000 Inflow $350k Proposal: Reduced Operating Costs $350k Reduced Operating Costs $350k Reduced Operating Costs $350k Reduced Operating Costs $350k

21. Michael Dimond School of Business Administration Relevant Cash Flows Depreciation is a non-cash expense, but it does have an effect on tax expense (therefore depreciation has an effect on a cash flow).

22. Michael Dimond School of Business Administration Incremental Cash Flows What & when would the BAU cash flows be? No cost savings What about the effect which depreciation would have had on tax expense? What salvage value would the existing (BAU) equipment have after year 5? What is the difference between BAU and the proposal cash flows?

23. Michael Dimond School of Business Administration DCF analysis What is the hurdle rate? 9.0% What/when are the incremental cash flows?

24. Michael Dimond School of Business Administration Objective decision Do the incremental cash flows have a positive NPV? Yes, $100,900 Is the IRR greater than the hurdle rate? Yes, 12.2% > 9.0% Is the payback period acceptable? Depends on what management says about PBP, but NPV and IRR should be used to make the actual decision. I use PBP just to show a complete picture.

25. Michael Dimond School of Business Administration