1. 1 The Economic Outlook for Connecticut Rae D. Rosen Senior Economist and Assistant Vice - President Federal Reserve Bank of New York September 9, 2004 1

2. 2 Key Points: Connecticut’s economy appears to be turning. The recovery has been slower than expected. Modest job growth (less than one percent) is projected for 2005. 1

3. 3 Second District Unemployment Rates Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 8

4. 4 New York ConnecticutNew Jersey Massachusetts CT to NJ 3,000 NJ to CT 3,200 Workers That Commute from Outside Area of Residence Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census of Population. CT to MA 14,000 MA to CT 27,000 NJ to NY 335,000 NY to NJ 126,000 CT to NY 60,000 NY to CT 41,000 MA to NY 5,000 NY to MA 6,000 17

5. 5 Recent Trends in Regional Employment Percent change from 12 months earlier Percent United States Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY calculations. Connecticut 18

6. 6 Recent Trends in Regional Employment Percent change from 12 months earlier Percent United States Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY calculations. Connecticut Hartford 19

7. 7 Recent Trends in Regional Employment Percent change from 12 months earlier Percent United States Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY calculations. Connecticut Stamford Hartford 20

8. 8 CT Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Seasonally Adjusted Claims Source: Connecticut Department of Labor. Claims 9

9. 9 Personal Income Percent change from 4 quarters earlier Percent United States New York Percent Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY calculations. Connecticut 12

10. 10 Consumer Price Index Percent change from 12 months earlier Percent Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. United States United States - Services United States - Durable Goods 7

11. 11 Growth in Service Jobs % change July 2004 / July 2003 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY Calculations. Note: U.S. data are for August 2004. 21

12. 12 Growth in Service Jobs % change from July 2004 to July 2003 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Connecticut Department of Labor, FRBNY Calculations. *Data for Eating & Drinking and Accommodation are combined at a higher NAICS level and reported as Accommodation. Note: U.S. date are for August 2004. 22

13. 13 Growth in Service Jobs % change from July 2004 to July 2003 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Connecticut Department of Labor, FRBNY Calculations. *Data for Eating & Drinking and Accommodation are combined at a higher NAICS level and reported as Accommodation. Note: U.S. date are for August 2004. 23

14. 14 Growth in Service Jobs % change from July 2004 to July 2003 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Connecticut Department of Labor, FRBNY Calculations. *Data for Eating & Drinking and Accommodation are combined at a higher NAICS level and reported as Accommodation. Note: U.S. date are for August 2004. 24

15. 15 Office Vacancy Rates Quarterly Percent Source: Coldwell Banker. United States- Metropolitan Metropolitan Stamford Note: Q2 2004 Overall Office Vacancy rate for Hartford was 18.2%. Source: Cushman and Wakefield. Metropolitan NYC Hartford 25

16. 16 Home Prices Percent change from 4 quarters earlier Percent Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. United States New York Connecticut 26

17. 17 Connecticut Net Migration Returns Source: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income. 13

18. 18 Connecticut Migration Returns Connecticut In Connecticut Out Source: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income. 1114

19. 19 Net Domestic and International Migration April 1990 to July 1999 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census. 1215

20. 20 Net Domestic and International Migration April 2000 to July 2003 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census. 16

21. 21 US Workforce by Age 2003 and 2012 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Age of Workers 4

22. 22 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 6465 and older Growth in US Workforce by Age Percent Change from 2003 - 2012 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Percent 2

23. 23 16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 and older Growth in US Workforce by Age Change in Number of Workers from 2003 - 2012 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5