1. V14.2 12 Jan 2010 1 1 SPSRB Project Plan “NPP Microwave Sounder-based Tropical Cyclone Products (NTCP)” IPT Lead: Mark DeMaria, STAR/NESDIS IPT Backup Lead: Limin Zhao, OSPO/NESDIS August 8-9, 2012

2. V14.2 12 Jan 2010 2 2 Outline Integrated Product Team (IPT) Requirements Capabilities Assessment IT System Architecture Plan of Operations Project Milestones Funding Spending Plan and Tasks

3. V14.2 12 Jan 2010 3 3 Integrated Product Team (IPT) IPT Lead: Mark DeMaria (StAR) IPT Backup Lead: Limin Zhao (OSPO) NESDIS Team: ─ STAR: Mark DeMaria, John Knaff ─ OSPO: Limin Zhao, Liqun Ma (TC products PAL) ─ OSD: Tom Schott, Gary Mineart ─ NDE: Dylan Powell ─ Data Center: Phil Jones ─ Others: Andrea Schumacher (CIRA), Jiande Wang (SSAI), Hazari Syed (SSAI) User Team ─ Lead: Michael Brennan and Jack Beven (NHC) Oversight Panel (OP) lead: ICAPOP Other OPs involved: Soundings, Precipitation

4. V14.2 12 Jan 2010 4 4 Requirement(s) SPSRB User Request #1009-0017 submitted by NHC ─ Requesting the current AMSU-based TC intensity and structure estimates and mean layer winds be generalized from ATMS during the NPP and JPSS era to support the continuity of operation. User community ─ National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) ─ Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and Dept. of Defense ─ NWS Offices Benefit to user ─ Continuity of TC products that provide guidance to NHC forecasters NOAA Mission Goal supported: ─ Weather and Water ─ Commerce and Transportation Mission priority: Optimal

5. V14.3 11 Arp 2011 5 Capabilities Assessment Current Operational Capabilities Requested CapabilitiesProposed Operational Capabilities Satellite Source (s)NOAA polar-orbiting satellites (AMSU) NPP and JPSS (ATMS)NPP (ATMS) Product NameAMSU-based TC productsATMS-based TC products AccuracyIntensity MAE of 13.5 kt / 9 hPa. Wind radii MAE of 32, 18, 10 nmi for 34-, 50-, 64-kt radii, respectively. Same or better than current AMSU-based products. Same as requested Latency3 hours after synoptic time Same as requested TimelinessNew product generated every 6 hours, updated every 2 hours Same as requested CoverageGlobalN. Atlantic and N.E. Pacific tropical cyclone basins Global ResolutionPoint values for intensity and radii, 0.2 lat/lon grid for balanced winds Same as requested Other attributes

6. V14.2 12 Jan 2010 6 6 Capabilities Assessment (Continued) Current Operational Shortfalls ─ AMSU-based TC intensity, radii and balanced wind products used by NHC forecasters rely on AMSU soundings on board NOAA POES and Metop satellites. NOAA-19 was the last POES pm orbiting satellite and capabilities from this orbit have a finite lifetime. Define how product development addresses shortfalls ─ Generalizing the current algorithms to utilize the temperature profile retrievals from next generation polar orbiting satellite microwave instruments (i.e., NPP ATMS) will ensure data and operation continuity. Impact if project is not funded ─ Disruptions to AMSU sounding data will result in disruptions of these TC guidance products used by NHC and JTWC. The improved capabilities ATMS will not be fully utilized by NHC and JTWC operations.

7. V14.2 12 Jan 2010 7 7 Algorithm Status and Approach (1/2) Define algorithm maturity ─ NOAA-15/16/17 AMSU-based Intensity and wind radii algorithms have been running operationally at NCEP since 2003. Algorithm and validation details are provided in:  Demuth, J., M. DeMaria, and J.A. Knaff, 2006: Improvement of Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Size Estimation Algorithms, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 45, 1573-1581.  Demuth, J., M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff and T. H. Vonder Haar, 2004: Validation of an advanced microwave sounder unit (AMSU) tropical cyclone intensity and size estimation algorithm, J. App. Met., 43, 282-296. ─ NOAA-15/16/17 AMSU-based balanced wind algorithms have been running operationally since 2005. Algorithm and validation details are provided in:  Bessho, K., M. DeMaria, and J.A. Knaff, 2006: Tropical cyclone wind retrievals from the Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit: Application to Surface Wind Analysis. J. Appl. Meteor. and Clim., 45,399-415. ─ The algorithm will be updated to use the operational MIRS sounding products instead of the Goldberg/Barnett statistical retrievals. The evaluation of the change is undergoing through a CIRA cal/val project, which should be completed before this project starts. Using the MIRS sounding retrievals will eliminate duplication of effort and improve product reliability

8. V14.2 12 Jan 2010 8 8 Algorithm Status and Approach (2/2) Overview of technical approach of the algorithm and its implementation ─ Product will be implemented at NESDIS as part of the MIRS processing to take advantage of existing polar satellite data flows and 24 x 7 support of satellite retrievals. ─ Ancillary data: official TC positions, and 100-mb heights from NCEP GFS. ─ Algorithms use hydrostatic balance and statistical analysis to estimate intensity and wind radii. Mean-layer winds are obtained by solving equations for non-linear balance. ─ Concept of operations: The ATMS TC products will utilize the MIRS ATMS products and implemented as a Level-3 sub-system loosely attached to the operational MIRS products system framework to take advantage of existing polar satellite data flows and 24 x 7 operational monitoring support that have established at NESDIS. Briefly describe the validation concept ─ ATMS-derived products will be compared to AMSU-derived products. Hurricane flight reconnaissance intensities and wind radii will be used as ground-truth for validation. ─ Performance on ATMS is expected to exceed current AMSU products due to improved horizontal resolution

9. 9 9 9 9 IT System Architectures for NPP TC Products – Within NDE (1/2) Input Data Includes: MIRS ATMS temperature profile retrievals (NDE), ATCF TC positions and GFS analyses (both from outside NDE, brought in via DDS) Red denotes connections that need to be made. Input Data Includes: MIRS ATMS temperature profile retrievals (NDE), ATCF TC positions and GFS analyses (both from outside NDE, brought in via DDS) Red denotes connections that need to be made. V2.1 Jun 2010 ESPC DDS ESPC DDS NDE/ESPC IT Environment NDE Linux “Production ” NDE Linux “Production ” NDE Linux “System Test” NDE Linux “System Test” NPP ATMS TC products NDE Linux “Development” GFS analyses, global TC positions NDE AIX “Production ” NDE AIX “Production ” MIRS temperature retrievals TC “CIRA Linux Server” TC “CIRA Linux Server” R2O Outside of NDE Environment – See next slide

10. 10 IT System Architecture for NPP TC Products – Outside of NDE (2/2) Input data that must be sent to NDE via DDS: TC positions (a-decks and b-decks) and GFS analyses Red denotes connections that need to be made. Input data that must be sent to NDE via DDS: TC positions (a-decks and b-decks) and GFS analyses Red denotes connections that need to be made. V2.1 Jun 2010 NCEP ESPC QC Monitoring QC Monitoring CLASS/NCDC ArchiveArchive JTWC ESPC DDS ESPC DDS NPP ATMS TC products GFS analyses, TC positions NHC ESPC OPSO web/ftp NPP ATMS TC products TC positions TC positions and GFS analyses NDE Environment – See previous slide ftp pull NPP ATMS TC products ftp pull

11. V16.0 July 2010 11 Research and Operational System Environments Project Name:NPP Microwave Sounder-based Tropical Cyclone Products (NTCP) IT ItemResearchOperations Agency STARNDE Platform(s) and need dates Dell Precision 690 with 4 GB RAM (already in place) NDE production Linux machine (x86_64, 24 CPUs @ 2.67 GHz and 36 GB of RAM) Operating Systems Linux RedHat v6 Programming languages/compilers * GNU Fortran 90 CompilerGNU Fortran Compilers (v4.1.2) Scripting languages Bash, Perl, Python (v2.6 or v2.7) Graphical/Imaging programs, COTS S/W, other tools, libraries, etc GrADS, gnuplot, ImageMagick Helpdesk Monitoring Tool (standardized tool or customized tool?) None.NDE products monitoring tool Other platforms needed for monitoring/imaging/graphics (specify platform & operating system) None.Dell Linux boxes with Red Hat for image generation, products QC and web monitoring tools. Other (tools, shareware, libraries, critical non- static ancillary data, etc) Java, JavaScripts, wgrib2 Python Libraries: Numpy, Scipy, Matplotlib, Basemap, netCDF4 Fortran 90 Libraries: zlib (1.2.7), hdf (1.8.9), netcdf (4.1.3) Ancillary: ATCF TC info (adeck; current,past,forecast positions & intensities), GFS analyses (GRIB2) Java, JavaScripts, wgrib2 Python Libraries: Numpy, Scipy, Matplotlib, Basemap, netCDF4 Fortran 90 Libraries: zlib (1.2.7), hdf (1.8.9), netcdf (4.1.3) Ancillary: ATCF TC info (adeck; current,past,forecast positions & intensities), GFS analyses (GRIB2) Red font indicates new IT resource requirements for this project Blue font indicates existing IT resources will be used for this project

12. V16.0 July 2010 Operational Agency System Requirements Project Name: NPP Microwave Sounder-based Tropical Cyclone Products (NTCP) Back-up Operations IT Item DevelopmentOperationsOn-SiteOff-Site Agency NDE ESPC Platform(s) and need dates (include secondary platforms for monitoring, imagery or graphics, if necessary) NDE Linux Linux - TBD Storage required on systems 50 GB on dev; 50 GB on test; 15 GB on QC 50 GB on ops 15 GB on QC 50 GB on ops-cip 15 GB on QC-cip How often does system run (granule time, orbital, daily); event or schedule driven? Test drivenEvery 6 hours Memory used at run time ~ 100MB Input data volume and input data sources NCEP GFS, ~ 9MB MIRS ATMS temp retrieval, ~ 40MB ATCF TC positions, ~1.0KB NCEP GFS, ~ 9MB MIRS ATMS temp retrieval, ~ 40MB ATCF TC positions, ~1.0KB NCEP GFS, ~ 9MB MIRS ATMS temp retrieval, ~ 40MB ATCF TC positions, ~1.0KB Data volume for distribution; planned distribution server; specific push users & volumes NAESPC Data Distribution Server, FTP; ~200 MB/day CIP Data Distribution Server, FTP; ~200 MB/day Communication Requirements/Protocol ftp, wget Days to retain input and output data 3 days 5 days Red font indicates new IT resource requirements for this project Blue font indicates existing IT resources will be used for this project

13. V14.2 12 Jan 2010 13 Plan of Operations (1/2) Product Retirement Plan ─ No product retirement is planned at this time. This product can run in parallel to AMSU-based products. Archive Plan ─ The TC intensity/structure products will be provided to NHC as a text bulletin in Automated Tropical Cyclone Format (ATCF) and will be archived there (same as current AMSU products). ─ TC balanced winds products will be archived at NCDC, and a Data Submission Agreement will be developed for it. ─ Local archive requires to keep three day worth of data for real-time use Long Term Maintenance Plan ─ 8 x 5 science support provided by STAR/RAMMB personnel. ─ 24 x 7 technical support of input data flow, internet distribution, and basic product operation to be provided by OSPO personnel. Quality Monitoring Plan ─ STAR/RAMMB:  Monitoring and validating the products quality  The intensity/wind radii estimates will be added to the ATCF system where they can routinely be compared with similar estimates from other platforms. This can be done by STAR/RAMMB in coordination with SAB. Real time monitoring and feedback can also be obtained from NHC.  The nonlinear balance winds are input to the Multi-Platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis system that will be operational at NESDIS, which includes automated input quality control that can be leveraged to routinely monitor the nonlinear balance winds

14. V14.2 12 Jan 2010 14 Plan of Operations (2/2) Quality Monitoring Plan (cont) ─ OSPO  Monitoring the data flow and processing status through NDE GUI interface 24/7 and automated anomaly detection through email notification.  Monitoring the products generation, timeliness and distribution status, and also inspecting imagery during normal business hours to detect anomalies and monitor long term stability/accuracy of products Documentation/Metadata Plan ─ STAR will lead the development of the SPSRB required documents, including ATBD. ─ NDE and OSPO will provide assistant on the operational related sections as indicated in the document templates. User Involvement Plan ─ Feedback regarding accuracy, timeliness, and comparisons with AMSU-based products will be solicited from NHC forecasters.

15. V14.2 12 Jan 2010 15 Project Milestones and Key Tasks Product Delivery/Tracking Name: NPP microwave sounder-based tropical cyclone products MAY 11 (MAY 11) (MAY 11): Development Phase Begins ─ MAY 11: IPT Lead informed to begin product development ─ MAY 11: Begin adapting current AMSU algorithms to MIRS retrieval datasets ─ OCT 11: NPP launch, begin collecting ATMS radiance data when available for global tropical cyclones ─ JUL 12: Begin collecting MIRS ATMS soundings and limb corrected ATMS brightness temperatures, for global tropical cyclones (collecting sample cases, real-time ingest expected Jul 2013) ─ JUL 12: Initial Archive Requirements identified ─ JUL 12: Quality Monitoring Concept Defined ─ JUL 12: Long-term Maintenance Concept Defined ─ JUL 12: Preliminary Design Review ─ AUG 12: Development processing system defined ─ OCT 12: Test case processed ─ MAR 13: Critical Design Review ─ MAR 13: Final Archive requirements identified ─ APR 13: Develop pre-ops retrieval algorithms (using available NPP ATMS sounding test cases) ─ APR 13: Code is prepared for implementation ─ MAY13: Software Code Review ─ MAY 13: Deliver Algorithm Package to NDE JUN 13 (MAR 13) (MAR 13): Pre-operational Phase Begins ─ JUN 13: The TC DAP tested and evaluated within NDE SADIE, algorithm adjustments made ─ JUL 13: TC products run on the NDE System Integration for 2013 Atlantic hurricane season ─ AUG 13: Code transitions to operations; all documentation is complete ─ SEP 13: Brief SPSRB Oversight Panel(s) on product status ─ SEP 13: Brief SPSRB capability is ready to go operational OCT 13 (AUG 13) (AUG 13): Operational Phase Begins ─ OCT 13: SPSRB declares product operational  SPSRB Secretaries/manager update the SPSRB product metrics web pages  OSD updates Satellite Products database

16. V14.2 12 Jan 2010 16 FY13 Product Deliverable Details Product Type and Number Fiscal Year (FY) Product Delivery/Tracking Name Environmental Observational Parameters SatellitesSensorsN#N# E#E# R#R# T#T# O#O# Tailoring Options or Comments FY13NPP ATMS tropical cyclone products Tropical cyclone maximum wind NPPATMS1Formats: text Coverage areas: global Resolutions: N/A Update cycle: every 6 h FY13NPP ATMS tropical cyclone products minimum sea level pressure NPPATMS1Formats: text Coverage areas: global Resolutions: N/A Update cycle: every 6 h FY13NPP ATMS tropical cyclone products radii of 34 kt winds in NE, SE, NW and SW NPPATMS1Formats: text Coverage areas: global Resolutions: N/A Update cycle: every 6 h FY13NPP ATMS tropical cyclone products radii of 50 kt winds in NE, SE, NW and SW NPPATMS1Formats: text Coverage areas: global Resolutions: N/A Update cycle: every 6 h FY13NPP ATMS tropical cyclone products radii of 64 kt winds in NE, SE, NW and SW NPPATMS1Formats: text Coverage areas: global Resolutions: N/A Update cycle: every 6 h FY13NPP ATMS tropical cyclone products balanced horizontal winds at 1000 to 200 mb within 600 km of the storm center NPPATMS12Formats: ASCII, netCDF, gif Coverage areas: global Resolutions: 0.2 degree lat/lat Update cycle: every 6 h N=New E=Enhanced R=Replacement T=Tailored O=Other

17. V14.2 12 Jan 2010 17 Funding (K) NPP microwave sounder-based tropical cyclone products Funding SourceProcurement OfficePurchase Items FY11FY12FY13 OSD Polar Gnd Sys --Totals => 75 (0)0 (0) STARCIRA Grant 75 (0)0 (0) STAR 0 (0) JPSS NPP Products --Totals => 0 (0)80 (0)25 (0) STARCIRA Grant 0 (0)80 (0)25 (0) STAR 0 (0) JPSS NPP Products --Totals => 0 (0)20 (0)35 (0) OSPOContractor 0 (0)20 (0)35 (0) OSPOIT Security 0 (0) OSPO BaseTotals => 0 (0) OSPOS/W Licenses 0 (0) OSPOH/W Maintenance 0 (0) OSPOSys Admin, O&M 0 (0)

18. V14.2 12 Jan 2010 18 FY11 Purchases and Tasks (75K of OSD Gnd Sys – NPP Products): CIRA STAR Grant for 1 research associate at 50% time from MAY 2011 to APR 2012 and 1 IT person at 30% time from MAY 2011 to APR 2012. ─ Begin adapting AMSU algorithms to use MIRS temperature profile retrievals ─ NPP launch in Oct 2011 – begin collecting ATMS radiance data when available for global tropical cyclones ─ Coordinate with the MIRS group on the availability of ATMS temperature profile retrievals (MIRS DAP delivered Nov/Dec 2012, real-time ingest should be available soon thereafter) ─ Collect ATMS soundings and limb corrected ATMS brightness temperatures for global tropical cyclones and adapt retrieval algorithm

19. V14.2 12 Jan 2010 19 FY12 Purchases and Tasks (80K of JPSS NPP Products): CIRA STAR Grant for 1 research associate at 50% time from MAY 2012 to APR 2013 and 1 IT person at 30% time from MAY 2012 to APR 2013. ─ Collect ATMS soundings and limb corrected ATMS brightness temperatures for global tropical cyclones and adapting retrieval algorithm (real-time flow of ATMS MIRS delayed until July 2013, development will proceed using test case data) ─ Perform Preliminary Review ─ Critical Design Review ─ Operation Code Review ─ Develop the NPP TC DAP for integration to the NDE ─ Develop final algorithm using ATMS sounding test case data, process test case ─ Deliver algorithm package to NDE (20K of JPSS NPP Products): OSPO Software Contractor for 1 senior programmer at 15% time (12 months) from MAY 2012 to APR 2013 ─ Work with the NDE team to conduct the capacity planning ─ Work with the NDE team to develop the transition plan ─ Provide support to PDR, CDR ─ Work with CIRA and NDE to prepare Submission Agreement with NCDC ─ Lead the Code Review effort ─ Work with the NDE team to prepare for integrating the NPP TC products into the NDE

20. V14.2 12 Jan 2010 20 FY13 Purchases and Tasks (25K of JPSS NPP Products): CIRA STAR Grant for 1 research associate at 50% time from MAY 2013 to AUG 2013 and 1 IT person at 50% time from MAY 2013 to AUG 2013. ─ Evaluate preoperational test results and make final adjustments to algorithm to prepare for operations ─ Help with implementation of operational code at NESDIS. ─ Prepare SPSRB required documentation. (35K of JPSS NPP Products): OSPO Software Contractor for 1 senior programmer at 85% time (4 months) from MAY 2013 to AUG 2013. ─ Assistant on implementing the NPP TC products into operation at NDE ─ Testing and evaluation of integration ─ Operational Readiness Review ─ Work with CIRA and NDE to accomplish the required documents ─ Develop the operation procedures for monitoring and maintenances ─ Develop the monitoring tools for the NPP TC products