1. The Use of EMME/2 by Transek – an Overview “Fantasy and imagination is the limit” by Göran Tegnér Transek Consultants, Solna, Sweden Presentation for the 19th International EMME/2 Users’ Conference in Seattle, 19-21 October 2005

2. Contents  115 EMME/2 installations in Scandinavia  Some National & Regional Applications  An international application:  The Yerevan Strategic Transport Model  Three recent Domestic Applications:  The Stockholm Congestion Charge Trials  The PRT Test Site at Kings’ Curve  The Vulnerability Project

3. More than 100 EMME/2 installations in Scandinavia  The first Emme/2 installation in Europe  Stockholm County Council Traffic Office 1984  EMME/2- the Standard Tool for Regional Planning  The Planned Bottleneck “Klarastrandsleden” => the very first EMME/2 application A then new central North-South By-pass: 2+2 or 1+1 lane Environmental reasons => 1+1 lane The 1st EMME/2 study => substantial diversion to inner city streets: In reality this turned out to be the case

4. In all: 115 installations

5. EMME/2 and Swedish State Railways  EMME/2 –the planning tool that brought together various skills  Traditional use of EMME/2 – network assignment of rail trips  A new application: Assignment of Revenues: ”Swedish Crowns” by Railway Line

6. EMME/2 and High Speed Rail Project Evaluations  EMME/2 has been used in the following High Speed And Regional Rail Projects in Sweden =>  The X 2000 Tilted Train Services  The ”Atlantic Line”  The ”East Coast Line”  The ”Norrbotnia Line”  The Svealandsbanan” Rail Line

7. Back casting: the East Coast High Speed Rail Line Backcasted train trips=> 1 % differ- ence to 1987 reality The elasticity & Sampers models underestimated train trips in 2000 => Comfort & convenience factors not included

8. The Öresund Road & Rail Bridge between Sweden & Denmark  Many choices =>  2 Sea Crossings (Helsingborg-Helsingör or Malmö- Copenhagen, ie Northern or Southern Strait of Öresund)  Frequency & Destination choices  Mode (Ferry, Car, Train, Bus) & Route Choice

9. High Quality Forecasts with EMME/2 for the Öresund Bridge - 11 Price scenarios <= Transek Forecasts for Road Traffic => better than other ones <= Transek Forecasts for Road Traffic => better than other ones Transek Forecasts for Rail => Traffic => better than other ones Transek Forecasts for Rail => Traffic => better than other ones

10. EMME/2: part of the winning concept in an International Competition  SIKA –Swedish Institute for Transport and Communication Analysis  True International Competition =>  A new generation of Forecasting tools  Demand models for Regional/Urban, National and International trips  Assignment Models: EMME/2, TRIPS, VISUM  EMME/2 including the Time Table Assignment won the bid!

11. The Yerevan (Armenia) Strategic Transport Model  Base Network :  114 zones;  355 nodes,  1 336 one way links,  159 transit lines, of which 116 minibus lines 31 bus lines 2 metro lines 8 trolley bus lines  Methods used:  Base network  Travel Survey  A Demand Frequency, Destination & Mode choice model coded as a Macro into EMME/2  Calibration against roadside traffic counts (cars) & On-board surveys (transit) The Model work revealed a 30 % overestimation of the total population The Model work revealed a 30 % overestimation of the total population

12. Transit flows in Yeravan

13. Car traffic flows in Yerevan

14. Scenarios for Transport Planning  Base network 2002 with Actual vs. Normal operation parameters  Year 2012 network with road network development and slightly higher fares (20%)  Year 2012 network with trams & trolleys replaced by buses and slightly higher fares (20%)  Year 2012 network without metro  Year 2012 network with slightly higher fares for the metro, double fare for the minibuses and with parking fees

15. Major Results - Yerevan Scenarios

16. The Stockholm Congestion Charge Trials  Goals=>  Reduce car traffic by 10%-15 % on major arterials  Improve the environment  Measures:  22nd August 2005: 5 % extended Transit services (Direct Express buses to the CBD)  Congestion charges Trial 3rd-Jan to 31st July 2006.  A local referendum

17. The Charging Area of Stockholm: ”Inner City” 06.30-06.59: 1,33 $ 07.00-07.29: 2,00 $ 07.30-08.29: 2,67 $ 08.30-08-59: 2,00 $ 09.00-15.29: 1,33 $ 15.30-15.59: 2,00 $ 16.00-17.29: 2,67 $ 17.30-17.59: 2,00 $ 18.00-18,29: 1,33 $ 18.30-06.29: 0 $

18. Changes of auto volumes on road network due to the congestion charges system (thousand of vehicles average week day) Stockholm city center

19. Estimated Impacts of the Stockholm Congestion Pricing Scheme

20. Personal Rapid Transit- a cost-effective, sustainable and innovative transport system

21. Time for a Better System: PRT is an Innovative Transport System  Driverless vehicles waiting for you  No waiting, direct to destination  Travel in privacy and station on side- tracks  Investment 30 % of light rail  Service level of taxi  Operation cheaper than bus  Driverless vehicles waiting for you  No waiting, direct to destination  Travel in privacy and station on side- tracks  Investment 30 % of light rail  Service level of taxi  Operation cheaper than bus

22. Kungens Kurva Shopping Centre Scandinavia’s largest Commercial Centre  4,500 employed  42,000 daily visitors today  63,500 projected visitors in 2015  23,000 cars per peak day  3,000 cars at peak hour Scandinavia’s largest Commercial Centre  4,500 employed  42,000 daily visitors today  63,500 projected visitors in 2015  23,000 cars per peak day  3,000 cars at peak hour  Kungens Kurva

23. A PRT net for Kungens Kurva-Skärholmen  Phase 0: 1 loop: 3 km;5 stations; 8 vehicles;  Phase 1: 2 loops: 5,5 km; 11 stations: 45 vehicles  Phase 2: 3 loops: 8,3 km; 15 stations; 85 vehicles  Phase 0: 1 loop: 3 km;5 stations; 8 vehicles;  Phase 1: 2 loops: 5,5 km; 11 stations: 45 vehicles  Phase 2: 3 loops: 8,3 km; 15 stations; 85 vehicles

24. 3-4 Times Higher Mode Share with PRT

25. PRT Cheaper than LRT & Bus

26. Network Impacts of PRT at King’s Curve <= Yellow New PRT trips; Red=Reduced Bus trips; Green= increased Metro trips <= Yellow New PRT trips; Red=Reduced Bus trips; Green= increased Metro trips Red= reduced Car traffic 2 remote parking-houses at the N & S entrances=> transfer from car to PRT => Red= reduced Car traffic 2 remote parking-houses at the N & S entrances=> transfer from car to PRT =>

27. Regional accessibility from a Vulnerability Persective - A Road Administration project  Aim of the project: to identify the most ”critical links”.  The chosen method was the following one:  Step 1Calculate the total travel in the entire network with EMME/2  Step 2Cut off one link at each step and calculate the total travel time loss in the network  Step 3Search the link that produces the highest loss in total travel time. This is the “critical link”.

28. Selected Links A Truck Link A Bus link A private car link

29. Number of Work-places within 45 minutes - a normal situation

30. Difference in accessibility with a closed link - number of workplaces within 45 minutes

31. The most Critical Links in SE Road Region Passenger car traffic Passenger car traffic Heavy truck trafiic Heavy truck trafiic

32. ”Fantasy and imagination is the limit” I hope this presentation has showed a broad variety of (more or less… depending on who you are) successful but different EMME/2 Applications… Many thanks for your attention! //Göran Tegnér