1. Property of CTL Business Solutions Sdn. Bhd 1 Economic Indicators and Indices By Mike Lee CFP, RFP, FCIS, MCIM (Licensed Financial Planner) No. CMSRL/A3201/2007

2. Property of CTL Business Solutions Sdn. Bhd 2 Some Economic Indicators  Money Supply / Liquidity  Gross Domestic Product / Income  Interest Rate / Interest rate cycle  Economic Indices – Leading, Coincidental and Lagging  Trade Surplus / Bank Negara Reserves  Economic / Business Cycle  What is Inflation / Deflation / Stagflation?  The Baltic Exchange Dry Index  The Volatility Index (VIX) or “Fear” Index  The US Dollar Index

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10. 10 4 Possible Trends in a Recovery Quick Recovery Double Bottom Gradual Recovery Slow Recovery

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14. Property of CTL Business Solutions Sdn. Bhd 14 What is Inflation?  Demand exceeds Supply?  Too much money chasing too few goods?  Money is what money does?  Costs of goods and services go up?  Value of money goes down?  “The rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services are rising, and subsequently, the purchasing power of money is falling” - Investopedia

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20. Property of CTL Business Solutions Sdn. Bhd 20 What is Stagflation?  Two words – ‘Stagnant economy & Inflation’  “A condition of slow economic growth and high unemployment – a time of stagnation, followed by high prices and inflation” - Investopedia

21. Property of CTL Business Solutions Sdn. Bhd 21 Are economic indicators always beneficial or relevant? It depends on what is happening in the country and the world. Generally, economic indicators provide a good guide and direction for planning purposes.

22. Property of CTL Business Solutions Sdn. Bhd 22 Market Change After Crisis (Dow Jones Industrial Index) Event Reaction Date Market Drop 1 mth2 mths3 mths8 mths Iraq invades Kuwait 02 – 23 Aug 1990 -12.6%-0.30%3.10%18.9%23.6% Gulf War 16 – 17 Jan 1991 3.7%11.5%16.2% 28.2% Asian Financi al Crisis 07 – 27 Oct 1997 -10.8%10.8%11.8%23.7%22.1% US 911 Terror 10 – 21 Sep 2001 -11.6%14.4%18.5%18.9%-12.7% US-led War against Iraq 20 – 31 Mar 2003 -3.5%7.5%9.2%13.1%20.4%

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40. Property of CTL Business Solutions Sdn. Bhd 40 Asset Class (Gold Index) Gold Coins, jewelry etc. Gold Funds (mining stocks) Gold ETFs Gold Certificates (banks) Others

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46. Property of CTL Business Solutions Sdn. Bhd 46 22.9 Market is down- Be greedy when others are fearful? Market is up- Be fearful when others are greedy?

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48. Property of CTL Business Solutions Sdn. Bhd 48 Reversion to the mean The Pendulum Swings both ways equally What goes down must come up again and vice versa

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54. Property of CTL Business Solutions Sdn. Bhd 54 Q & A Session