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Commission européenne 1 -1- European Pension reforms International Forum on Pension Reform: Exploring the Link to Labour and Financial Market Reforms Bled - Slovenija 7-9 May 2007 O. Bontout, G. Fischer European Commission Employment, Social Affairs & Equal Opportunities DG
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Commission européenne 2 -2- Pension reforms ➢ A common challenge and approach in EU ➢ Main developments in current reforms ➢ Recent developments : labour market and pension prospects ➢ Some outstanding issues
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Commission européenne 3 -3- I - A common pension challenge: adjustments needed Increase in life expectancy and dependency ratios Decline in effective retirement ages … reversal in recent years Contribution rates – further increases ?
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Commission européenne 4 -4-
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6 -6- Life expectancy at 60 and activity rates 55-64 Source Eurostat for Life expectancy and ILO (ES and SE 1970-2000, FR 1968-2000, IT 1971-2000, UK 1971-1991)
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Commission européenne 7 -7- 40%25%18%Ratio 70+ /20-69 58%39%27%Ratio 65+ /20-64 80%58%39%Ratio 60+ /20-59 205020252004 Note : EU25. Source : Eurostat 2005 demographic projections. 7 Projected evolution of dependency ratios
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Commission européenne 8 -8- A common challenge All systems are concerned: DB, DC, NDC, PAYG, funded, Member States are not interdependent: –public finance, –mobility, –common social rights and objectives,
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Commission européenne 9 -9- Common European Approach Pension systems to be reformed to ensure: Adequate benefits: poverty and income replacement Financial sustainability Adaptation to societal/ labour market change Adequacy and Sustainability are mutually reinforcing : virtuous or vicious circle
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Commission européenne 10 -10- European Action: the OMC Open Method of Coordination: National Strategy Reports 2005, Social Protection Committee to review progress und prepare for Council, Recently issued synthesis report (2006) New objectives adopted in Spring 2006
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Commission européenne 11 -11- II - Key elements arising from current pension reforms Strengthening incentives for working longer Developing a life-cycle approach and strengthening the link between contributions and benefits while reducing access to early paths out of employment
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Commission européenne 12 -12- Key elements arising from current pension reforms Making pension systems more adaptable to structural changes in society Develop secure private pensions complementing and partially replacing public pension provision
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Commission européenne 13 -13- Commission européenne 13 -13- III - Recent developments Labour market - a recent reversal Benefits - the key channel of working longer
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Commission européenne 14 -14- Recent increase in employment of older workers, but huge potential Source : LFS
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Commission européenne 15 -15- Older workers employment (55-64)
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Commission européenne 16 -16- Older workers employment (55-59)
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Commission européenne 17 -17- Older workers employment (60-64)
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Commission européenne 18 -18- Part time employment (55-64)
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Commission européenne 19 -19- Part time employment (55-64)
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Commission européenne 20 -20- Commission européenne 20 -20- Between MSs ? Men / Women ? Less / medium and high skilled ? Some risks of divergence ?
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Commission européenne 21 -21- Average standard deviation of employment rates 55-64 and 25-54 Commission européenne 21 -21- Non convergence between MSs? Source : LFS – Note : Total for all Member States available, EU* for a group of Member States where are available all the period long (BE, DK, DE, IE, EL, FR, IT, LU, NL, UK)
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Commission européenne 22 -22- Average standard deviation of employment rates 55-59 and 60-64 Commission européenne 22 -22- Non convergence between MSs? Source : LFS – Note : Total for all Member States available, EU* for a group of Member States where are available all the period long (BE, DK, DE, IE, EL, FR, IT, LU, NL, UK)
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Commission européenne 23 -23- Commission européenne 23 -23- Slow convergence between Genders ? Employment rates by gender for 55-64 in EU
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Commission européenne 24 -24- Commission européenne 24 -24- Divergence between skill levels? Employment rate of men 55-64 in EU25
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Commission européenne 25 -25- Commission européenne 25 -25- Projected long term trends Adequacy : theoretical replacement rates Sustainability : expenditures projections
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Commission européenne 26 -26- Trend of replacement rates : effect of enacted reforms at a given retirement age 2005-2050 A trend toward a decline in most statutory schemes Source : Stylised illustration from ISG results on gross replacement rates
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Commission européenne 27 -27- How to compensate for this decline ? Working longer and private pensions Source : Stylised illustration from ISG results on gross replacement rates
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Commission européenne 28 -28- Trends of future pension expenditures Source : AWG projections
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Commission européenne 29 -29- Commission européenne 29 -29- IV - Some key issues Concerns about equity and poverty Compulsion vs. incentives : private pensions and working longer How to fully restore social and financial sustainability ?
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Commission européenne 30 -30- Commission européenne 30 -30- Key issues (1) Concerns about equity and poverty Risks related to inadequate pension provision A revival of minimum income provision
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Commission européenne 31 -31- Commission européenne 31 -31- How to strengthen the role of minimum pensions and solidarity in pension systems ? –Poverty risk among elderly remains generally higher than overall population –Links between level of benefits, degree of means-test, incentives and indexation rules –A need for appropriate monitoring tools
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Commission européenne 32 -32- Commission européenne 32 -32- Poverty risk among elderly Source Eurostat, income data
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Commission européenne 33 -33- Theoretical replacement rates : effect of indexation 10 years after retirement (2005-2015) Source : ISG results on gross replacement rates
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Commission européenne 34 -34- Commission européenne 34 -34- Key issues (2) Compulsion vs. incentives : private pensions and working longer –Choice, incentives for earlier / deferred retirement, partial retirement –Importance to review incentives structures: are incentives strong enough? –But pension reform can not do everything
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Commission européenne 35 -35- Retirement: incentives and behaviour Source : Illustration from SPC report on flexible age of retirement (forthcoming), Replacement calculations from EU Commission-OECD project ‘’Modelling pension entitlements'
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Commission européenne 36 -36- Commission européenne 36 -36- Key issues (3) How to fully restore social and financial sustainability ? –Importance of an integrated approach –Development of automatic and semi – automatic adjustment mechanisms: automatic mechanisms vs. regular reviews –Importance of transparency
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Commission européenne 37 -37- Conclusion Pension reform in progress Working longer: breakthrough needed Promoting longer working lives involves not only pension reform Improve transparency and governance to allow policy decisions on priorities
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