1. Section of specification covered Global climate change Evidence for climatic change over the last 20 000 years. Global warming – possible causes. Possible effects: on a global scale, on the chosen tropical region (above) and on the British Isles. Responses to global warming: international, national and local.

2. Global climate change Evidence for climatic change over the last 20 000 years. Global warming – possible causes. Possible effects: on a global scale, on the chosen tropical region (above) and on the British Isles. Responses to global warming: international, national and local.

3. The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) UKCIPLink

4. Impacts on the British Isles The BBC conducted a climate change experiment and concluded that;climate change experiment The UK should expect a 4°C rise in temperature by 2080, with heat waves on the rise and by 2080, summer temperatures of 40°C common. Winters are also predicted to be warmer. Summer rainfall is set to decrease and the UK can expect more frequent droughts, a problem exacerbated by the UK’s rising population and tendency for population to live in the South East, already a water shortage area. Winters will bring less snow and more rain, especially in the North and West. Storms will become more frequent and more severe. (Source)Source

5. Severity? The impacts of these potential changes in climate are immense. Don’t forget, the last ice age was just 6°C colder than today’s warm period. Some of the impacts on society, the environment and the economy are listed below (much of it from this link);this link);

6. Coasts UK coastal waters have warmed by about 0.7 degrees Celsius over the past three decades. In addition, the average sea level around the UK is now about 10 centimetres higher than it was in 1900. We will have to adapt our use of the coastline and our sea defences in order to cope with this, or put millions of people living in low-lying areas at greater risk of flooding. There Are a number of low-lying areas are vulnerable: coasts of E. Anglia, Lancashire, Fens, Essex mudflats, Thames estuary, Clyde/Forth estuaries. The Thames Barrier could need rebuilding at a cost of£20billion£20billion

7. Weather Since rain records began in 1766, the amount of winter rainfall in England and Wales has risen slightly. However, over the last 45 years there is evidence that there have been more extreme rainfall events. UK flooding was the worst for 270 years in some areas and in 2009, some areas, like Cumbria, witnessed widespread flooding. Flood damage now costs Britain about £1 billion a year.

8. Wildlife There are already changes to the way plants and animals live in this country. The period between spring and autumn when plants grow is now about a month longer in central England than it was in around 1900. This will affect British plants and animals, it has already been noted that migratory patterns of some birds has changed, and some flowers are blooming earlier. New research has been published stitching together nearly 400,000 first flowering records covering 405 species across the UK (Amano et al 2010). They've found that British plants are flowering earlier now than at any time in the last 250 years (source).Amano et al 2010source

9. UK Health: 1 Water availability and water stress could get worse, and there will be health impacts. The Department of Health think that outbreaks of diseases common in warmer areas such as malaria will remain unlikely to occur in the UK, but we will have to consider the health impacts of heat waves (such as that experienced in 2003) and extreme weather.

10. UK Health: 2 The air pollution climate of the UK will continue to change. Though concentrations of a number of important pollutants are likely to decline over the next half-century, the concentration of ozone is likely to increase. This will increase attributable deaths and hospital admissions. The increases are likely to be significant: with the least constraining assumptions (no threshold of effect assumed) up to about 1,500 extra deaths and hospital admissions per annum might be expected. Bloodsucking ticks, scorpions and poisonous spiders and even malaria carrying mosquitoes all might become a feature of life in a hotter UK. And of course if we don't cover up in the sun, increased levels of skin cancer and cataracts are also a possibility.

11. Food: 1 Britain has a thriving food production industry, however, it still needs to import 40% of its food to make it food secure. This lack of self sufficiency could be a problem in a warming world with a rising population. As food resources become increasingly scarce what impact will this have on the UK?

12. Food: 2 If we got a couple of degrees warmer our current range of arable crops would shift northward and maize, more often grown in Southern Europe and North America, would become more popular in the south and the midlands. Fruits that are also associated with warmer climates, like peaches and nectarines, would also be grown more widely. And the hot summers could also be a real boost to the British wine industry.

13. Food: 3 Warmer seas around the UK are likely to attract fish that, up until now, have favoured more southern waters. Recently fishermen have reported seeing surprising numbers of mullet, anchovies and various species of shark. A Mediterranean climate doesn't sound too bad - that is until we also take into account the insect pests that also thrive in warmer summers. Farmers fear the destructive Colorado beetle could get more of a foothold if the weather warms. In residential areas cockroaches could become more common along with fleas and mites.

14. Homes Where we build our homes and how they are built would need adapting. Land-use planning will be needed, such as not building homes on flood plains and better surface water drainage; infrastructure, such as building roads to cope with "typical Mediterranean" summers; buildings, including the construction of new homes and retrofitting old housing stock to be better insulated cool in hotter summers. Get more here.Get more here

15. Possible questions Describe the possible effects of global climate change on the British Isles (8) Discuss the possible responses to global climate change in the British Isles. (9)

16. 40 mark essay “Up and down, up and down – that is how temperature and climate have always gone in the past and there is no proof they are not still doing exactly the same now. In other words, climate change is an entirely natural phenomenon, nothing to do with the burning of fossil fuels.” David Bellamy Discuss the extent to which you agree with this statement. (40 marks)