1. IIM Ahmedabad AIM/Trend Model: India Results Rajesh Nair Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, India APEIS Capacity Building Workshop on Integrated Environment Assessment in the Asia Pacific Region October24- 26, 2002 Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi

2. IIM Ahmedabad Structure of the Presentation A brief introduction to the model The AIM/Trend output for India Conclusion

3. IIM Ahmedabad The AIM/Trend Model

4. IIM Ahmedabad Framework Target year: 2032 (“Rio+10”+30) Region : Each Asia-Pacific country Item : Economy (GDP, GDP share …) Energy (demand, supply) Environment (GHGs, water …) Type : Regression model Language: Microsoft Excel Macro, VBA

5. IIM Ahmedabad Structure of AIM/Trend Model Population Economy Energy Supply and Demand GHGs Emissions Water Supply and Demand Driving Forces

6. IIM Ahmedabad Driving Forces

7. IIM Ahmedabad India-Population

8. IIM Ahmedabad India-GDP

9. IIM Ahmedabad India-GDP per Capita

10. IIM Ahmedabad India Results

11. IIM Ahmedabad Energy Consumption by Demand Sector

12. IIM Ahmedabad India- Electricity Generation

13. IIM Ahmedabad India-Carbon Emissions

14. IIM Ahmedabad India- Carbon per Capita Emissions

15. IIM Ahmedabad India - SO 2 Emissions

16. IIM Ahmedabad India-N 2 O Emissions

17. IIM Ahmedabad Conclusion The model follows a simple methodology User can develop desired scenarios Model for policy analysis: e.g. –Coal is expected to be the main stay for power generation –Rising carbon emissions, but per capita emissions below developed country levels AIM/Trend is a suitable tool for future energy- environment analysis