1. Climate Change Problem Solving (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2010 January 7, 2010

2. Class News Ctools site: AOSS 480 001 W10AOSS 480 001 W10 2008 Class On Line:2008 Class –http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php /Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Actionhttp://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php /Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action First Reading: Spencer Weart’s The Discovery of Global Warming http://www.aip.org/history/climate/index.html –And in particular two subsections Carbon dioxide greenhouse effect: http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm Simple climate models http://www.aip.org/history/climate/simple.htm http://www.aip.org/history/climate/simple.htm

3. Today Who am I? Course Description Overview Some Questions and Discussion Glimpse in the Climate Change Problem

4. What is the Point of View that I Bring? Scientist and manager at NASA publishing in ozone modeling, climate modeling, data analysis, high- performance computing. Worked on multi-agency strategies for climate modeling and addressing the interface between the science of climate change and the use of climate information by stakeholders. Participant in national and international assessments of ozone depletion and environmental impact of aircraft. Teaching this course for the fifth time.

5. What is the Point of View that I Bring? “Complex problems with no known solutions.” There is something of “text” evolving on the web from my blogs. –Blog data base.Blog data base –http://climateknowledge.org/Blogs/index.php/Main_Pagehttp://climateknowledge.org/Blogs/index.php/Main_Page

6. SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE What are the pieces which we must consider? (what are the consequences) Belief SystemValuesPerceptionCultural MandateSocietal Needs information flow: research, journals, press, opinion, … Security Food Environmental National Societal Success Standard of Living...???... ECONOMICSPOLICY “BUSINESS”PUBLIC HEALTH SOCIAL JUSTICE ENERGY RELIGION??????

7. From Course Description Identify the important elements of science, policy, economics, public health, etc. –Where should we pay attention? –What do we know versus what do we believe? Identify and map the interactions between these elements and connections to other external elements –How big is the problem? How is all of this changing?

8. Course Project Reflective of workplace … –“Complex Problems with no Known Solutions.” Groups of individuals with varied expertise Responsive to “news” –Relationship of news to science Project will provide recommendations, a strategy for addressing the complex problem. –What are first steps? –What do we need to look out for as these steps are taken? Monitor progress // briefing during the course –Use of community web page –Development of wiki book –Possible publication on widely accessed web site. Presentation at end of course

9. Course News Project –Grade will be determined on the project Start to think about them – perhaps today Teams that bring together several elements of the project –Should be no larger than 4 people. –Should not be your friends that have the same background. Should be defined by late January –I will provide a template for thinking about the problem. We will visit and re-visit the projects over the course –That means I will provide management / customer oversight. Final presentations at the end –Five or less small (1 page) writing exercises during the course.

10. Who are we? Name Major or Interest Any particular reason you wanted to take this course. When some one asks you about global warming, or you hear about global warming, what is your first reaction?

11. Questions Do you think that the planet is warming? –Is this warming consequential? –Is this warming manmade? –Can we do something about it?

12. Glimpse into the issues of Climate Change Some global climate predictions

13. The motivator: Increase of CO 2 (Keeling et al., 1996)

14. Note: There is consistency from many models, many scenarios, that there will be warming. (1.5 – 5.5 C) Also, it’s still going up in 2100! Basic physics of temperature increase is very simple, non- controversial. The prediction:

15. Projected Global Temperature Trends IPCC ‘01 2071-2100 temperatures relative to 1961-1990. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming).

16. Observed Temperature Anomaly in 2005 http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2005/ http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2005/ See Also: Osborn et al., The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, 841-844, 2006

17. Observed Temperature Anomaly in 2008 http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/ http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/ See Also: Osborn et al., The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, 841-844, 2006

18. IPCC 2007: The last ~100 years

19. What parameters/events do we care about? Temperature Water –Precipitation –Evaporation –Humidity Air Composition –Air quality –Aerosols –Carbon dioxide Winds Clouds / Sunlight Droughts Floods Extreme Weather The impact of climate change is Water for Ecosystems Water for People Water for Energy Water for Physical Climate

20. Thanks We’ll really get started next time!