1. Pre-decisional 1 Traffic Flow Management Weather Requirements Working Group (TRWG) Program Review Presented to Jason Tuell, NWS Meteorological Services Division and Ellen King, FAA System Operations April 1, 2011

2. Pre-decisional Agenda Background Organization of TRWG Key Deliverables Status Update Concerns/Challenges Update on other issues Summary 10/3/2015DRAFT 2

3. Pre-decisional Background on TRWG Established in August 2010 to meet four objectives: –Baseline current NWS weather support capability –Develop firm requirements for near-term services to Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) Middle Operating Capability (MOC) –Provide a plan to implement solutions to meet requirements beginning in October 2011 –Deliver a Project Plan Roadmap by November 2010 Other short-term tasks identified in original FAA/NWS correspondence –TRACON Forecast standard look and feel –CWSU off-hour support 10/3/2015DRAFT 3

4. Pre-decisional Baseline Aviation Weather Support

5. Pre-decisional 10/3/2015DRAFT 5 TRWG Role in NextGen Program Development

6. Pre-decisional TRWG Organization 10/3/2015 6

7. Pre-decisional Project Plan Roadmap Completed 11/24/2010 Stems from TRWG’s charge to create work plan by end of November 2010 Defines the activities and deliverables needed between now and October 2011 Baseline current suite and cost of products and services Develop requirements of weather information in support of TFM Perform gap analysis to determine capabilities of current products and those needed at NextGen MOC Develop implementation plan to meet requirements 10/3/2015DRAFT 7

8. Pre-decisional Key Deliverables 10/3/2015DRAFT 8 Task Participants Lead Service Organization Due Date Identify current NWS-produced TFM products TRWG ATO-R NWS Personnel COMPLETE Complete a high-level plan for NWS-provided TFM information support, including categorical identification of performance measures to be tracked TRWG ATO-R 11/30/10 Complete mid-term (2015-2018) performance requirements for NextGen TFM Wx Information Support FAA Sub- TRWG ATO-P 3/31/11 Complete assessmentof baseline performance of current NWS TFM products NWS Sub- TRWG 4/30/11 Complete gap analysis (between baseline performance and 2015-2018 performance requirements) TRWG ATO-P 5/15/11 Complete near-term (2012-2015) performance requirements for NextGen TFM Wx Information Support TRWG ATO-P 6/15/11 Allocate near-term performance requirements for TFM information support to FAA, NWS AWC, NWS WFOs, and CWSUs TRWG ATO-P 7/15/11 Complete implementation plan for TFM information support provided by NWS TRWG ATO-R 9/1/11 COMPLETE

9. Pre-decisional 9 Requirements Approach –Iterative process involving Traffic Flow Managers and NextGen Requirements Team –Two separate surveys completed: one focused on 11 FAA facilities within Golden Triangle and the other on Collaborative Decision Making groups –Near-term requirements – Due 4/30/2011 –DRAFT NextGen functional requirements for MOC received – 3/23DRAFT NextGen functional requirements for MOC Requirements Team

10. Pre-decisional 2.0Requirements Analysis & DevelopmentDatesStatusResponsibility 2.1 Baseline 2.1.1Identify current NWS weather info/products 9/23/2010Complete 2.1.2Identify other weather info/products 9/30/2010Complete 2.1.3Identify key performance metrics for TFM decisions (POD/FAR, location error [geospatial verification], timing error, lead-time to onset, lead-time to cessation) 1/24/2011Complete 2.1.4Describe current baseline products and services 11/1/2010CompleteBaseline ST 2.1.5Complete preliminary description of current baseline requirements (update of November baseline with January TFM metrics) by domain (TRACON, Terminal, En Route) 4/30/2011OngoingBaseline ST 2.1.6Complete final baseline based upon new performance measures/metrics (all parameters) 3/31/2012 *contingent on funding Requirements Sub-Team Workplan with Key Dates

11. Pre-decisional 2.2 Requirements 2.2.1 Mid-term Requirements 2.2.1.1 Develop mid-term functional requirements 2.2.1.1.1 Distribute for Requirements Sub-Team review 1/31/2011Complete 2.2.1.1.2 Distribute for full TRWG review (deliverable) 3/31/2011Ongoing 2.2.1.2 Develop mid-term performance requirements 2.2.1.2.1 Distribute for Requirements Sub-Team review 3/23/2011Ongoing 2.2.1.2.2 Distribute for full TRWG review (deliverable) 3/31/2011Ongoing 2.3 Gap Analysis 2.3.1Pilot gap analysis process 4/15/2011 2.3.2Complete preliminary gap-analysis between current capability and MOC requirements 5/15/2011 2.3.3Complete gap analysis based upon new performance measures/metrics. Link to Task 2.6. 5/30/2012 2.4 Allocation 2.4.1Pilot allocation process 4/15/2011 2.4.2Allocate 2018 requirements 2.4.2.1Allocate to agencies and other 6/15/2011 2.4.2.2Allocate within agencies, including R&D 7/15/2011 2.5 Implementation 2.5.1Year-by-Year, 2012-2018, joint plan to meet requirements in terms of performance, procedures, communications, equippage, training, staffing, organization and budget. 9/30/2011 Implementation ST Workplan with Key Dates (con’t)

12. Pre-decisional 12 Baseline Team Baseline Approach and Progress –Four-phase approach Phase 1 – assessment of quality of current NWS products and services - Complete Phase 2 – comparison of current suite of NWS products and services against the TFM weather requirements – Due 4/30/2011 –Future work to support NextGen TFM Phase 3 – assessment of performance measures for TFM decision making Phase 4 – analysis of end-to-end TFM decision-making, from the provision of weather information through the decision-making process and the impact on the NAS

13. Pre-decisional New Performance Measures for Baseline 10/3/2015 13 Weather performance metrics linked to Traffic Management Initiatives provided to NWS –En Route Performance Metric: Airspace Flow Programs/En-route area (AFP 5 and 8) –Lead-time for onset and cessation of thunderstorms with probability greater than 50% of occurrence –Terminal Performance Metrics: Ground delay/Ground stops in Terminal areas for the 30 core airports Lead-time for onset and cessation of: (and timing error) –Marginal VFR and IFR conditions –Wind direction change of 30 degrees or more with speed GTE 12 knots –TRACON Performance Metrics: Lead-time for the onset and the cessation of a thunderstorm with a probability equal to or greater than 50% that are within 150nm (Diameter) of the 30 core terminals

14. Pre-decisional Key Progress to Date 10/3/2015 14 NWS provided Phase 1 baseline information –Contained in Project Plan Roadmap New performance requirements –NWS Performance Branch and NOAA Global Systems Division Existing Lead time to IFR software can be expanded to meet terminal performance measure requirements If fully funded, 6-9 months development and implementation –En Route and TRACON metrics will be based upon National Digital Forecast Database Verification of convection expected in Fall 2011 Additional software development will be necessary to determine accuracy of convection forecasts for outline the area associated with FCA 8 and 5

15. Pre-decisional 15 Quality Management Team Quality Management Approach –Baselined to user requirements –Quality Management Plan will provide framework for assessing and measuring overall quality of products and services –Plan incorporates all aspects of Quality Assurance –ISO 9000 and WMO standards –Component of Implementation

16. Pre-decisional 16 Implementation Team Approach –Notional schedule developed for FY12 through NextGen MOC that includes: Identifying FAA activities driven by TFM weather requirements Establishing the final technical solution to meet requirements Developing performance metrics –NEED NOTIONAL SCHEDULE Wayne and Pat

17. Pre-decisional Key Progress to Date 10/3/2015 17 Drafts of key Implementation Plan Components –Risk –Communications –Quality –Training Notational Schedule

18. Pre-decisional Baseline Aviation Weather Cost Capture the current cost of NWS aviation weather support to TFM Quantify the cost of providing 11 identified products and services to include:

19. Pre-decisional Aviation Weather Costs Costs will include labor and non-labor items: Labor –To produce the product or service –Labor to maintain the system Infrastructure –Facility cost –Equipment for users and underlying system equipment (tech refresh and maintenance included) –Software (updates, maintenance) –Communications Costs to Pull from Source Data –Observation data, usage information

20. Pre-decisional Cost Project Progress Finished with CWSU analysis Working on AWC contributions to TFM –CCFP is main product –CIP –FIP –Impact Guidance; Volcanic Ash, GTG, LAMP NWS WFO TAFs for core 30 airports –Survey out--over 50% response so far 10/3/2015DRAFT 20

21. Pre-decisional 21 Concerns/Challenges Equipping CWSUs (WARP evolves to NWP) –TRWG agrees AWIPS II is good approach –Agencies corporate position? Funding? Customer based, operationally relevant metrics –Who pays? NWS understanding and involvement with NWP and NNEW programs Leveraging research to operations projects

22. Pre-decisional Update on Other Tasks TRACON –Convective TDA standardized look and feel –6 TRACONS Currently following ATL/ZTL Model –ORD/ZAU and MSP/ZMP Digital Solution CWSU Off-hour Support –NWS Directives prescribe parent WFO –NWS working to determine an improved way of providing off-hour support Investigating providing a single telephone number at Aviation Weather Center 10/3/2015 22

23. Pre-decisional Summary NWS/FAA Team –Develop implementation plan to meet weather support requirements –Focuses on Traffic Flow Management (TFM) Develop baseline (including cost) Propose Solutions that meet requirements –Begin Implementation October 2011 Team is on track with original plan 10/3/2015DRAFT 23

24. Pre-decisional Backup Slides 10/3/2015DRAFT 24

25. Pre-decisional Primary: NWS FAA-MET FAA-ATM Secondary: FAA, DOD, Private NWS, DOD-MET DOD-ATM, Private State of the NAS Collect data Analyze data Forecast data NextGen 4-D Wx Cube / SAS Weather Translation* Translation to Aviation Constraints ATM Impact Conversion ** Conversion to Operational NAS Impact ATM Decision Support*** Impact Mitigation Options ATM Efficiency Demand/Capacity ATM Aviation Standards Observations Sensors Reports Met Community ATM Community Research Community & Components State of the Atmosphere * Translation of weather data & other components into characterization of potential NAS constraints ** Conversion of potential NAS constraint into specific NAS impact(s). *** DSTs use specific NAS impact to develop strategic/ tactical TFM strategies. Thresholds/Behavior Direct FAA Users Direct External Users NextGen Weather Integration Concept

26. Pre-decisional Path to Overcoming Challenges 10/3/2015DRAFT 26 Continue advancing digital information Leverage OSIP and CDM/AWT Projects –NDFD Enhanced grids for TAFs/TRACON –CoSPA or SREF –Operational Bridging/MITL Complete gap analysis Develop performance measures Finalize Implementation Plan Execute

27. Pre-decisional Baseline Cost Approach Our cost approach will include: –Tapping into a wealth of existing cost data –Reviewing activity usage information and system usage data –Pulling from other reports and data –Accounting for percentage which supports TFM Bridging information gaps through interviews with NCEP and a sampling of MICs at both WFOs and CWSUs