1. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Iraq War Economy Displacement and Living Conditions Khalid M. Khalid Programme Associate UNDP Iraq Iraq War Economy Displacement and Living Conditions Khalid M. Khalid Programme Associate UNDP Iraq

2. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions ContentsContents Iraq pre 2003 war Iraq pre 2003 war Status shortly after the war Status shortly after the war Displacement and violence: post-Samarra bombing Displacement and violence: post-Samarra bombing How things stand today How things stand today Iraq pre 2003 war Iraq pre 2003 war Status shortly after the war Status shortly after the war Displacement and violence: post-Samarra bombing Displacement and violence: post-Samarra bombing How things stand today How things stand today

3. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Introduction: First 11 Years Much of what is happening today has roots the Ba’th regime rule that started 1968 Violent changes of regime since 1958 Violent changes of regime since 1958 Ba’th regime coup, 1968: profound and forced social and economic changes Ba’th regime coup, 1968: profound and forced social and economic changes Basic strategy: concentrate power in state’s hands Basic strategy: concentrate power in state’s hands Nationalization campaign culminating in nationalization of oil in 1972 Nationalization campaign culminating in nationalization of oil in 1972 Much of what is happening today has roots the Ba’th regime rule that started 1968 Violent changes of regime since 1958 Violent changes of regime since 1958 Ba’th regime coup, 1968: profound and forced social and economic changes Ba’th regime coup, 1968: profound and forced social and economic changes Basic strategy: concentrate power in state’s hands Basic strategy: concentrate power in state’s hands Nationalization campaign culminating in nationalization of oil in 1972 Nationalization campaign culminating in nationalization of oil in 1972

4. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Introduction: First 11 Years Income from oil rose tenfold to form 87% of total revenues Income from oil rose tenfold to form 87% of total revenues Development projects in Education, welfare, industry, and capital projects Development projects in Education, welfare, industry, and capital projects Income from oil rose tenfold to form 87% of total revenues Income from oil rose tenfold to form 87% of total revenues Development projects in Education, welfare, industry, and capital projects Development projects in Education, welfare, industry, and capital projects

5. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Introduction: First 11 Years Revenues financed building strong political base Revenues financed building strong political base Oppress opposition or buy them off with financial benefits, especially the military Oppress opposition or buy them off with financial benefits, especially the military Huge development projects opened opportunities for the business people who had connections with the regime Huge development projects opened opportunities for the business people who had connections with the regime Revenues financed building strong political base Revenues financed building strong political base Oppress opposition or buy them off with financial benefits, especially the military Oppress opposition or buy them off with financial benefits, especially the military Huge development projects opened opportunities for the business people who had connections with the regime Huge development projects opened opportunities for the business people who had connections with the regime

6. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Introduction: Iraq-Iran War Foreign currency reserve over $35 Billion Foreign currency reserve over $35 Billion Drop in oil revenues with increase in war expenditure Drop in oil revenues with increase in war expenditure Foreign dept by end of war in 1988: $80 Billion Foreign dept by end of war in 1988: $80 Billion Abandonment of development projects Abandonment of development projects Massive layoffs in industry and agriculture workforce Massive layoffs in industry and agriculture workforce Privatization: selling of 70 large factories and most of agricultural land to private sector Privatization: selling of 70 large factories and most of agricultural land to private sector Infrastructure in need of repair Infrastructure in need of repair Foreign currency reserve over $35 Billion Foreign currency reserve over $35 Billion Drop in oil revenues with increase in war expenditure Drop in oil revenues with increase in war expenditure Foreign dept by end of war in 1988: $80 Billion Foreign dept by end of war in 1988: $80 Billion Abandonment of development projects Abandonment of development projects Massive layoffs in industry and agriculture workforce Massive layoffs in industry and agriculture workforce Privatization: selling of 70 large factories and most of agricultural land to private sector Privatization: selling of 70 large factories and most of agricultural land to private sector Infrastructure in need of repair Infrastructure in need of repair

7. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Introduction: Kuwait War More of Iraq’s infrastructure was destroyed in six weeks of bombing than the 8 years of war with Iran More of Iraq’s infrastructure was destroyed in six weeks of bombing than the 8 years of war with Iran Sanctions eroded what was left of the economic base of the country Sanctions eroded what was left of the economic base of the country Severely harmed civilians Severely harmed civilians Devaluated Dinar from ID1=$3 to ID1000=$1 Devaluated Dinar from ID1=$3 to ID1000=$1 Increase in emigration of Iraqi brain Increase in emigration of Iraqi brain Rapid deterioration in the living standards Rapid deterioration in the living standards More of Iraq’s infrastructure was destroyed in six weeks of bombing than the 8 years of war with Iran More of Iraq’s infrastructure was destroyed in six weeks of bombing than the 8 years of war with Iran Sanctions eroded what was left of the economic base of the country Sanctions eroded what was left of the economic base of the country Severely harmed civilians Severely harmed civilians Devaluated Dinar from ID1=$3 to ID1000=$1 Devaluated Dinar from ID1=$3 to ID1000=$1 Increase in emigration of Iraqi brain Increase in emigration of Iraqi brain Rapid deterioration in the living standards Rapid deterioration in the living standards

8. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Part 1: 2003 Change of Regime “Iraq is the world’s best known conflict, but the least well known humanitarian crisis” Antonio Guterres, UN High Commissioner for Refugees Iraq Living Conditions Survey (ILCS) 2004 Iraq Living Conditions Survey (ILCS) 2004 “Iraq is the world’s best known conflict, but the least well known humanitarian crisis” Antonio Guterres, UN High Commissioner for Refugees Iraq Living Conditions Survey (ILCS) 2004 Iraq Living Conditions Survey (ILCS) 2004

9. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Acute Electricity Shortage 58% of the population were deprived of stable electricity supply 58% of the population were deprived of stable electricity supply Power cuts could last as much as 12 hours Power cuts could last as much as 12 hours One third of the population had alternate power supply such as home or street generators One third of the population had alternate power supply such as home or street generators Power generation was reduced from the pre-war level of 3,958 MW to 500 MW Power generation was reduced from the pre-war level of 3,958 MW to 500 MW 58% of the population were deprived of stable electricity supply 58% of the population were deprived of stable electricity supply Power cuts could last as much as 12 hours Power cuts could last as much as 12 hours One third of the population had alternate power supply such as home or street generators One third of the population had alternate power supply such as home or street generators Power generation was reduced from the pre-war level of 3,958 MW to 500 MW Power generation was reduced from the pre-war level of 3,958 MW to 500 MW

10. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Water and Sanitation Problems 40% of population reported sewage flooding 40% of population reported sewage flooding 62% of population were dissatisfied with solid waste disposal 62% of population were dissatisfied with solid waste disposal 54% of households have piped water, only 29% have stable supply of safe drinking water 54% of households have piped water, only 29% have stable supply of safe drinking water Rural areas and the southern regions suffered the most Rural areas and the southern regions suffered the most 40% of population reported sewage flooding 40% of population reported sewage flooding 62% of population were dissatisfied with solid waste disposal 62% of population were dissatisfied with solid waste disposal 54% of households have piped water, only 29% have stable supply of safe drinking water 54% of households have piped water, only 29% have stable supply of safe drinking water Rural areas and the southern regions suffered the most Rural areas and the southern regions suffered the most

11. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Economic Hardship 55% of families have a low economic status 55% of families have a low economic status 60% of population owned less than 8 durable goods 60% of population owned less than 8 durable goods 57% of population did not have proper employment 57% of population did not have proper employment 51% of families could not provide for one or more of: keeping house warm in winter, cool in summer, changing furniture, buying second hand clothes, eating meat or chicken 3 times a week 51% of families could not provide for one or more of: keeping house warm in winter, cool in summer, changing furniture, buying second hand clothes, eating meat or chicken 3 times a week 36% of households could not earn $60 a week 36% of households could not earn $60 a week 55% of families have a low economic status 55% of families have a low economic status 60% of population owned less than 8 durable goods 60% of population owned less than 8 durable goods 57% of population did not have proper employment 57% of population did not have proper employment 51% of families could not provide for one or more of: keeping house warm in winter, cool in summer, changing furniture, buying second hand clothes, eating meat or chicken 3 times a week 51% of families could not provide for one or more of: keeping house warm in winter, cool in summer, changing furniture, buying second hand clothes, eating meat or chicken 3 times a week 36% of households could not earn $60 a week 36% of households could not earn $60 a week

12. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Decline of Education Standards 74% literacy in youth ages 15-24: higher than average population, however lower than age group 25-34 74% literacy in youth ages 15-24: higher than average population, however lower than age group 25-34 89% enrolment rate for boys versus 74% for girls 89% enrolment rate for boys versus 74% for girls North region which previously was lower than other regions have become the best region in educational levels North region which previously was lower than other regions have become the best region in educational levels 74% literacy in youth ages 15-24: higher than average population, however lower than age group 25-34 74% literacy in youth ages 15-24: higher than average population, however lower than age group 25-34 89% enrolment rate for boys versus 74% for girls 89% enrolment rate for boys versus 74% for girls North region which previously was lower than other regions have become the best region in educational levels North region which previously was lower than other regions have become the best region in educational levels

13. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Serious Child Malnutrition 12% of children between six months and five years are underweight 12% of children between six months and five years are underweight 8% suffer from acute malnutrition 8% suffer from acute malnutrition 23% suffer from chronic malnutrition 23% suffer from chronic malnutrition South regions showed highest levels of malnourished children South regions showed highest levels of malnourished children 4% in north region: lowest regions but still high 4% in north region: lowest regions but still high Malnutrition linked to educational level of head of household more than economic status Malnutrition linked to educational level of head of household more than economic status Effectiveness of ration card system Effectiveness of ration card system Male and female children identical levels Male and female children identical levels 12% of children between six months and five years are underweight 12% of children between six months and five years are underweight 8% suffer from acute malnutrition 8% suffer from acute malnutrition 23% suffer from chronic malnutrition 23% suffer from chronic malnutrition South regions showed highest levels of malnourished children South regions showed highest levels of malnourished children 4% in north region: lowest regions but still high 4% in north region: lowest regions but still high Malnutrition linked to educational level of head of household more than economic status Malnutrition linked to educational level of head of household more than economic status Effectiveness of ration card system Effectiveness of ration card system Male and female children identical levels Male and female children identical levels

14. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions IllnessIllness 14% of children under five were sick in two weeks preceding survey and is higher (58%) in children under one year of age 14% of children under five were sick in two weeks preceding survey and is higher (58%) in children under one year of age Contamination of piped water is the cause of the many cases of water-borne disease Contamination of piped water is the cause of the many cases of water-borne disease 15% chronic illness in men, 7% chronic illness in women 15% chronic illness in men, 7% chronic illness in women Problems mostly in age group 20-29, result of war with Iran Problems mostly in age group 20-29, result of war with Iran Considerable amounts in age groups 10-19 and 30-49 Considerable amounts in age groups 10-19 and 30-49 Illness related to 2003 showed more incidence in children under 9 than age group 20-29 Illness related to 2003 showed more incidence in children under 9 than age group 20-29 14% of children under five were sick in two weeks preceding survey and is higher (58%) in children under one year of age 14% of children under five were sick in two weeks preceding survey and is higher (58%) in children under one year of age Contamination of piped water is the cause of the many cases of water-borne disease Contamination of piped water is the cause of the many cases of water-borne disease 15% chronic illness in men, 7% chronic illness in women 15% chronic illness in men, 7% chronic illness in women Problems mostly in age group 20-29, result of war with Iran Problems mostly in age group 20-29, result of war with Iran Considerable amounts in age groups 10-19 and 30-49 Considerable amounts in age groups 10-19 and 30-49 Illness related to 2003 showed more incidence in children under 9 than age group 20-29 Illness related to 2003 showed more incidence in children under 9 than age group 20-29

15. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions HousingHousing Few squatter houses in 2004 in Iraqi cities Few squatter houses in 2004 in Iraqi cities Some improvised houses found in rural areas in Wasit, Maysan, and Kurdistan Some improvised houses found in rural areas in Wasit, Maysan, and Kurdistan High level of house ownership High level of house ownership High level of crowding, more in rural areas High level of crowding, more in rural areas Crowding related to the economic status of the family Crowding related to the economic status of the family Few squatter houses in 2004 in Iraqi cities Few squatter houses in 2004 in Iraqi cities Some improvised houses found in rural areas in Wasit, Maysan, and Kurdistan Some improvised houses found in rural areas in Wasit, Maysan, and Kurdistan High level of house ownership High level of house ownership High level of crowding, more in rural areas High level of crowding, more in rural areas Crowding related to the economic status of the family Crowding related to the economic status of the family

16. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Summary of Living Conditions in 2004 Serious problems in supply of basic infrastructure services (water, electricity) Serious problems in supply of basic infrastructure services (water, electricity) Widespread of long-term economic hardships Widespread of long-term economic hardships Serious child malnutrition Serious child malnutrition Stalled education achievements Stalled education achievements Economy in transition with an increase in private sector and self-employment Economy in transition with an increase in private sector and self-employment Differences among regions: the south worst off Differences among regions: the south worst off Serious problems in supply of basic infrastructure services (water, electricity) Serious problems in supply of basic infrastructure services (water, electricity) Widespread of long-term economic hardships Widespread of long-term economic hardships Serious child malnutrition Serious child malnutrition Stalled education achievements Stalled education achievements Economy in transition with an increase in private sector and self-employment Economy in transition with an increase in private sector and self-employment Differences among regions: the south worst off Differences among regions: the south worst off

17. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Post-Samarra Iraq Core of the political crisis Core of the political crisis Power sharing Power sharing Distribution of National Wealth Distribution of National Wealth Review of the Constitution Review of the Constitution Bombing of Askari shrine in Samarra marked the beginning of unprecedented sectarian violence in Iraq Bombing of Askari shrine in Samarra marked the beginning of unprecedented sectarian violence in Iraq Core of the political crisis Core of the political crisis Power sharing Power sharing Distribution of National Wealth Distribution of National Wealth Review of the Constitution Review of the Constitution Bombing of Askari shrine in Samarra marked the beginning of unprecedented sectarian violence in Iraq Bombing of Askari shrine in Samarra marked the beginning of unprecedented sectarian violence in Iraq

18. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions New Dimensions in Displacement Pre-2003 displacement in Iraq: Pre-2003 displacement in Iraq: Displacement of Kurds Displacement of Kurds Forced displacement during the Iraq-Iran war Forced displacement during the Iraq-Iran war Emigration due to discriminatory practices, oppression, economic hardship Emigration due to discriminatory practices, oppression, economic hardship Increase in size of displacement, many-folds after Samarra bombing Increase in size of displacement, many-folds after Samarra bombing Pre-2003 displacement in Iraq: Pre-2003 displacement in Iraq: Displacement of Kurds Displacement of Kurds Forced displacement during the Iraq-Iran war Forced displacement during the Iraq-Iran war Emigration due to discriminatory practices, oppression, economic hardship Emigration due to discriminatory practices, oppression, economic hardship Increase in size of displacement, many-folds after Samarra bombing Increase in size of displacement, many-folds after Samarra bombing

19. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions IDP Numbers: UNHCR Difficulty in number of IDPs Difficulty in number of IDPs Most IDPs do not live in camps Most IDPs do not live in camps Many IDPs do not register Many IDPs do not register Difficulty to survey displacement areas Difficulty to survey displacement areas Insufficient national capacities Insufficient national capacities UN IDP figures: UN IDP figures: UNHCR: 148,000 in the period 2003-2005 UNHCR: 148,000 in the period 2003-2005 Difficulty in number of IDPs Difficulty in number of IDPs Most IDPs do not live in camps Most IDPs do not live in camps Many IDPs do not register Many IDPs do not register Difficulty to survey displacement areas Difficulty to survey displacement areas Insufficient national capacities Insufficient national capacities UN IDP figures: UN IDP figures: UNHCR: 148,000 in the period 2003-2005 UNHCR: 148,000 in the period 2003-2005 Internally Displaced People in Iraq, September 2007 Northern Governorates800,900 Central Governorates740,500 Southern Governorates714,600 Total2,256,000

20. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions IDP Numbers: Ministry of Displaced and Migration MoDM IDP figures: 999,772 (163,574 families) in November 2007MoDM IDP figures: 999,772 (163,574 families) in November 2007 36% of IDPs are in Baghdad 36% of IDPs are in Baghdad 12%-15% of Baghdad’s population have been displaced 12%-15% of Baghdad’s population have been displaced

21. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions IDPs in Baghdad

22. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions IDPs in Baghdad

23. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Ethnicity Distribution in Iraq

24. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions IDPs Living Conditions: Shelter IDPs requirements beyond capacity of government at federal and governorate levels IDPs requirements beyond capacity of government at federal and governorate levels IDPs movement are restricted in governorates of Kurdistan and Kirkuk IDPs movement are restricted in governorates of Kurdistan and Kirkuk Biggest problem for IDPs is to find shelter Biggest problem for IDPs is to find shelter MoDM implemented only two camps in Baghdad and 12 others in remaining governorates MoDM implemented only two camps in Baghdad and 12 others in remaining governorates IDPs requirements beyond capacity of government at federal and governorate levels IDPs requirements beyond capacity of government at federal and governorate levels IDPs movement are restricted in governorates of Kurdistan and Kirkuk IDPs movement are restricted in governorates of Kurdistan and Kirkuk Biggest problem for IDPs is to find shelter Biggest problem for IDPs is to find shelter MoDM implemented only two camps in Baghdad and 12 others in remaining governorates MoDM implemented only two camps in Baghdad and 12 others in remaining governorates

25. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions IDPs Living Conditions: Food IOM shows that 70% of IDPs in Anbar, Baghdad, Najaf, and Dhi Qar are not receiving PDS rations IOM shows that 70% of IDPs in Anbar, Baghdad, Najaf, and Dhi Qar are not receiving PDS rations Lost of livelihood resulted in greater dependence on the ration card Lost of livelihood resulted in greater dependence on the ration card Few families were issued special ration cards Few families were issued special ration cards IOM shows that 70% of IDPs in Anbar, Baghdad, Najaf, and Dhi Qar are not receiving PDS rations IOM shows that 70% of IDPs in Anbar, Baghdad, Najaf, and Dhi Qar are not receiving PDS rations Lost of livelihood resulted in greater dependence on the ration card Lost of livelihood resulted in greater dependence on the ration card Few families were issued special ration cards Few families were issued special ration cards

26. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions IDPs Living Conditions: Health IOM study shows that serious health problems among IDPs IOM study shows that serious health problems among IDPs Few health facilities available, mostly in bad shape Few health facilities available, mostly in bad shape Percentages of IDPs with medical problems Percentages of IDPs with medical problems IOM study shows that serious health problems among IDPs IOM study shows that serious health problems among IDPs Few health facilities available, mostly in bad shape Few health facilities available, mostly in bad shape Percentages of IDPs with medical problems Percentages of IDPs with medical problems Salahuddin15% Kerbala19% Maysan29% Anbar34% Diyala52% Muthana59% Babil61% Kirkuk73% Wasit96%

27. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions IDPs Living Conditions: Schooling Great difficulties in resuming schooling: Great difficulties in resuming schooling: Schooling not a priority under displacement conditions Schooling not a priority under displacement conditions Difficulty in obtaining transfer documentation Difficulty in obtaining transfer documentation No school near camp No school near camp Children to help with income generation Children to help with income generation Great difficulties in resuming schooling: Great difficulties in resuming schooling: Schooling not a priority under displacement conditions Schooling not a priority under displacement conditions Difficulty in obtaining transfer documentation Difficulty in obtaining transfer documentation No school near camp No school near camp Children to help with income generation Children to help with income generation

28. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Displacement of Minorities Minorities migrated to Kurdistan or outside Iraq Minorities migrated to Kurdistan or outside Iraq Personally subjected to violence or places of worship attacked Personally subjected to violence or places of worship attacked Discrimination increased after Samarra bombing Discrimination increased after Samarra bombing Minorities such as Christians, Sabi’a, Izidis in Baghdad, Basrah, Mosul, Kirkuk, and Diyala were kidnapped, attacked, and requested to change religion Minorities such as Christians, Sabi’a, Izidis in Baghdad, Basrah, Mosul, Kirkuk, and Diyala were kidnapped, attacked, and requested to change religion Minorities migrated to Kurdistan or outside Iraq Minorities migrated to Kurdistan or outside Iraq Personally subjected to violence or places of worship attacked Personally subjected to violence or places of worship attacked Discrimination increased after Samarra bombing Discrimination increased after Samarra bombing Minorities such as Christians, Sabi’a, Izidis in Baghdad, Basrah, Mosul, Kirkuk, and Diyala were kidnapped, attacked, and requested to change religion Minorities such as Christians, Sabi’a, Izidis in Baghdad, Basrah, Mosul, Kirkuk, and Diyala were kidnapped, attacked, and requested to change religion

29. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Displacement: Migration Nearly 2 Million Iraqis are displaced outside Iraq Nearly 2 Million Iraqis are displaced outside Iraq Most have migrated to Syria and Jordan Most have migrated to Syria and Jordan Ability of neighbouring countries to accommodate such large numbers is reaching fatigue Ability of neighbouring countries to accommodate such large numbers is reaching fatigue Entry restrictions to these countries has made it difficult for Iraqis to find a save haven Entry restrictions to these countries has made it difficult for Iraqis to find a save haven Nearly 2 Million Iraqis are displaced outside Iraq Nearly 2 Million Iraqis are displaced outside Iraq Most have migrated to Syria and Jordan Most have migrated to Syria and Jordan Ability of neighbouring countries to accommodate such large numbers is reaching fatigue Ability of neighbouring countries to accommodate such large numbers is reaching fatigue Entry restrictions to these countries has made it difficult for Iraqis to find a save haven Entry restrictions to these countries has made it difficult for Iraqis to find a save haven Displaced Iraqis in the Region Syria1.2 – 1.4 Million Jordan500,000 – 750,000 EgyptUp to 70,000 Iran57,000 Lebanon20,000-40,000 Turkey10,000 Gulf States200,000

30. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Displacement: Migration Iraqis are the leading nationality seeking assylum in industrialized countries Iraqis are the leading nationality seeking assylum in industrialized countries 22,200 applied for asylum in 2006 and 19,800 in first six months of 2007 22,200 applied for asylum in 2006 and 19,800 in first six months of 2007 Iraqis are the leading nationality seeking assylum in industrialized countries Iraqis are the leading nationality seeking assylum in industrialized countries 22,200 applied for asylum in 2006 and 19,800 in first six months of 2007 22,200 applied for asylum in 2006 and 19,800 in first six months of 2007

31. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Displacement: Iraqi Refugees around the world Germany36,200 UK22,000 Netherlands21,800 Sweden23,600 Australia11,100 Denmark9,900 Norway8,700 US19,800 Switzerland5,000 Canada4,000 Finland1,600 Italy1,300 France1,300 Hungary1,200 Bulgaria1,200 Austria1,200 Greece820 New Zealand820 Armenia460 Romania450 Ireland340

32. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Displacement: Migration Shortage of humanitarian resources to care for refugees in Jordan and Syria Shortage of humanitarian resources to care for refugees in Jordan and Syria Iraqis could not work legally in Syria Iraqis could not work legally in Syria Growing number of girls and women are forced into sex trade to earn money for living Growing number of girls and women are forced into sex trade to earn money for living In Jordan only 30% of Iraqis have work In Jordan only 30% of Iraqis have work Majority of Iraqis in Jordan are middle class that live out of savings or remittance Majority of Iraqis in Jordan are middle class that live out of savings or remittance Iraqis in Jordan are becoming increasing vulnerable due to depletion of resources Iraqis in Jordan are becoming increasing vulnerable due to depletion of resources Shortage of humanitarian resources to care for refugees in Jordan and Syria Shortage of humanitarian resources to care for refugees in Jordan and Syria Iraqis could not work legally in Syria Iraqis could not work legally in Syria Growing number of girls and women are forced into sex trade to earn money for living Growing number of girls and women are forced into sex trade to earn money for living In Jordan only 30% of Iraqis have work In Jordan only 30% of Iraqis have work Majority of Iraqis in Jordan are middle class that live out of savings or remittance Majority of Iraqis in Jordan are middle class that live out of savings or remittance Iraqis in Jordan are becoming increasing vulnerable due to depletion of resources Iraqis in Jordan are becoming increasing vulnerable due to depletion of resources

33. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Civilian Protection The sheer violence directed against Iraqi civilians is unparalleled in any emergency in the world The sheer violence directed against Iraqi civilians is unparalleled in any emergency in the world Perpetrators of violence are: armed groups, criminal gangs, extremists, militias, as well as operations by security and military forces Perpetrators of violence are: armed groups, criminal gangs, extremists, militias, as well as operations by security and military forces The majority of casualties are innocent civilians The majority of casualties are innocent civilians The sheer violence directed against Iraqi civilians is unparalleled in any emergency in the world The sheer violence directed against Iraqi civilians is unparalleled in any emergency in the world Perpetrators of violence are: armed groups, criminal gangs, extremists, militias, as well as operations by security and military forces Perpetrators of violence are: armed groups, criminal gangs, extremists, militias, as well as operations by security and military forces The majority of casualties are innocent civilians The majority of casualties are innocent civilians

34. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions War Related Death In the aftermath of 2003 invasion: In the aftermath of 2003 invasion: 18,000 to 29,000 Iraqis have died (ILCS, Lancet: 98,000)18,000 to 29,000 Iraqis have died (ILCS, Lancet: 98,000) 12% of deaths were children 12% of deaths were children Orphanage measured 6% than Jordan Orphanage measured 6% than Jordan The 2006 Lancet report shows: The 2006 Lancet report shows: Violent death has reached 601,000 (with lower bound 95% confidence interval 426,000 violent deaths Violent death has reached 601,000 (with lower bound 95% confidence interval 426,000 violent deaths 1000 Iraqis killed every single day in the first half of 2006. Less than tenth of them being noticed by public serveillance mechanisms (UN: total recorded civilian deaths in 2006 is34,452) 1000 Iraqis killed every single day in the first half of 2006. Less than tenth of them being noticed by public serveillance mechanisms (UN: total recorded civilian deaths in 2006 is34,452) 800,000 suffered blast wounds 800,000 suffered blast wounds Over 7% of adult male population killed in violence Over 7% of adult male population killed in violence In the aftermath of 2003 invasion: In the aftermath of 2003 invasion: 18,000 to 29,000 Iraqis have died (ILCS, Lancet: 98,000)18,000 to 29,000 Iraqis have died (ILCS, Lancet: 98,000) 12% of deaths were children 12% of deaths were children Orphanage measured 6% than Jordan Orphanage measured 6% than Jordan The 2006 Lancet report shows: The 2006 Lancet report shows: Violent death has reached 601,000 (with lower bound 95% confidence interval 426,000 violent deaths Violent death has reached 601,000 (with lower bound 95% confidence interval 426,000 violent deaths 1000 Iraqis killed every single day in the first half of 2006. Less than tenth of them being noticed by public serveillance mechanisms (UN: total recorded civilian deaths in 2006 is34,452) 1000 Iraqis killed every single day in the first half of 2006. Less than tenth of them being noticed by public serveillance mechanisms (UN: total recorded civilian deaths in 2006 is34,452) 800,000 suffered blast wounds 800,000 suffered blast wounds Over 7% of adult male population killed in violence Over 7% of adult male population killed in violence

35. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions War Related Death (Lancet findings continued) Number of civilians killed by coalition increased Number of civilians killed by coalition increased (Lancet findings continued) Number of civilians killed by coalition increased Number of civilians killed by coalition increased

36. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions War Related Death Civilian fatalities increased since May 2003 to reach a peak of 3,700 in November 2006 Civilian fatalities increased since May 2003 to reach a peak of 3,700 in November 2006

37. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions BombingsBombings Multiple fatality bombings: 1,613 (35% suicide) Multiple fatality bombings: 1,613 (35% suicide)

38. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Brain Slain Many educated people had to leave the country prior to 2003 war because of lack of freedoms, political oppression, and economic hardship Many educated people had to leave the country prior to 2003 war because of lack of freedoms, political oppression, and economic hardship After 2003 university professors and doctors were specifically targeted After 2003 university professors and doctors were specifically targeted Out of the 23,000 registered doctors, 17,000 left the country after 2003, 2000 were killed, 250 kidnapped Out of the 23,000 registered doctors, 17,000 left the country after 2003, 2000 were killed, 250 kidnapped Many educated people had to leave the country prior to 2003 war because of lack of freedoms, political oppression, and economic hardship Many educated people had to leave the country prior to 2003 war because of lack of freedoms, political oppression, and economic hardship After 2003 university professors and doctors were specifically targeted After 2003 university professors and doctors were specifically targeted Out of the 23,000 registered doctors, 17,000 left the country after 2003, 2000 were killed, 250 kidnapped Out of the 23,000 registered doctors, 17,000 left the country after 2003, 2000 were killed, 250 kidnapped

39. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Crime: Looting and Kidnapping Looting crimes began 9 April 2003 with the fall of Baghdad Looting crimes began 9 April 2003 with the fall of Baghdad Looting targeted vital public institutions including schools, libraries, hospitals, electricity installations Looting targeted vital public institutions including schools, libraries, hospitals, electricity installations 50,000 irreplaceable artifacts dating back to 5000 years were stolen from the National Museum 50,000 irreplaceable artifacts dating back to 5000 years were stolen from the National Museum Looting crimes began 9 April 2003 with the fall of Baghdad Looting crimes began 9 April 2003 with the fall of Baghdad Looting targeted vital public institutions including schools, libraries, hospitals, electricity installations Looting targeted vital public institutions including schools, libraries, hospitals, electricity installations 50,000 irreplaceable artifacts dating back to 5000 years were stolen from the National Museum 50,000 irreplaceable artifacts dating back to 5000 years were stolen from the National Museum

40. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Crime: Looting the National Museum

41. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Crime: Looting the National Museum

42. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Crime: Looting and Kidnapping Multinational Forces only protected Ministry of Oil and Ministry of Interior Multinational Forces only protected Ministry of Oil and Ministry of Interior Kidnapping became the most profiting profession in the country Kidnapping became the most profiting profession in the country Brookings: 40 kidnappings per day Brookings: 40 kidnappings per day Ministry of Interior: 5,000 kidnapped Dec 03 – Apr 05 Ministry of Interior: 5,000 kidnapped Dec 03 – Apr 05 Ransoms start $250,000, negotiated to $30,000 Ransoms start $250,000, negotiated to $30,000 Multinational Forces only protected Ministry of Oil and Ministry of Interior Multinational Forces only protected Ministry of Oil and Ministry of Interior Kidnapping became the most profiting profession in the country Kidnapping became the most profiting profession in the country Brookings: 40 kidnappings per day Brookings: 40 kidnappings per day Ministry of Interior: 5,000 kidnapped Dec 03 – Apr 05 Ministry of Interior: 5,000 kidnapped Dec 03 – Apr 05 Ransoms start $250,000, negotiated to $30,000 Ransoms start $250,000, negotiated to $30,000

43. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions PrisonsPrisons Ministry of Human Rights: 20,000 prisoners held with MNF, 21,000 in government prisons Ministry of Human Rights: 20,000 prisoners held with MNF, 21,000 in government prisons Brookings: 25,100 with MNF, ~37,000 with government Brookings: 25,100 with MNF, ~37,000 with government Prison problems: overcrowding, lack of judicial oversight Prison problems: overcrowding, lack of judicial oversight Many held for long periods. Reports of abuse Many held for long periods. Reports of abuse Recent improvements, with promise to allow inspection Recent improvements, with promise to allow inspection Ministry of Human Rights: 20,000 prisoners held with MNF, 21,000 in government prisons Ministry of Human Rights: 20,000 prisoners held with MNF, 21,000 in government prisons Brookings: 25,100 with MNF, ~37,000 with government Brookings: 25,100 with MNF, ~37,000 with government Prison problems: overcrowding, lack of judicial oversight Prison problems: overcrowding, lack of judicial oversight Many held for long periods. Reports of abuse Many held for long periods. Reports of abuse Recent improvements, with promise to allow inspection Recent improvements, with promise to allow inspection

44. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Through the eyes of Iraqis Many surveys and assessments conducted since 2004 Many surveys and assessments conducted since 2004 Widely varying results makes it hard to have an indication about trends Widely varying results makes it hard to have an indication about trends Difficulty with conducting surveys Difficulty with conducting surveys Limitations in national capacities Limitations in national capacities Precarious security situation Precarious security situation Many surveys and assessments conducted since 2004 Many surveys and assessments conducted since 2004 Widely varying results makes it hard to have an indication about trends Widely varying results makes it hard to have an indication about trends Difficulty with conducting surveys Difficulty with conducting surveys Limitations in national capacities Limitations in national capacities Precarious security situation Precarious security situation

45. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Through the eyes of Iraqis Polls to measure perceptions about situation in Iraq Polls to measure perceptions about situation in Iraq Central Organization for Statisitics and Information Technology (COSIT) poll Central Organization for Statisitics and Information Technology (COSIT) poll D3 Systems poll for BBC, ABC, ARD TV, USA Today D3 Systems poll for BBC, ABC, ARD TV, USA Today Both polls conducted in Feb/March 2007 Both polls conducted in Feb/March 2007 Polls to measure perceptions about situation in Iraq Polls to measure perceptions about situation in Iraq Central Organization for Statisitics and Information Technology (COSIT) poll Central Organization for Statisitics and Information Technology (COSIT) poll D3 Systems poll for BBC, ABC, ARD TV, USA Today D3 Systems poll for BBC, ABC, ARD TV, USA Today Both polls conducted in Feb/March 2007 Both polls conducted in Feb/March 2007

46. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Through the eyes of Iraqis Q: Overall, how would you say things are going in your life these days? Would you say things are very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad? 200720052004 %% Very Good 82213 Quite Good314957 Quite Bad321814 Very Bad281115 Refused/don’t know - 1 1

47. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Through the eyes of Iraqis Q: What is your expectation for how things overall in your life will be in a year from now? Will things be much better, somewhat better, about the same, somewhat worse, or much worse? 200720052004 %% Much Better123537 Somewhat Better232934 About the Same3214 9 Somewhat Worse25 7 3

48. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Through the eyes of Iraqis Q: What is the single biggest problem facing your life these days? 200720052004 %% Net: Security issues481825 Net: Political/military issues13n.a.2 Net: Economic issues171521 Net: social issues221618 Net: Personal issues 1 7 4 Other - 4 2 No problem -3118 No opinion - 9 8

49. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Through the eyes of Iraqis Q: Do you think your children will have a better life than you, worse, or about the same? % Better42 Worse37 About the Same21 Refused/don’t know -

50. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Through the eyes of Iraqis Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you rate security situation as very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad? 200720052004 %% Very good173120 Quite good30 29 Quite bad211721 Very bad322129 Refused/don’t know - 1 1

51. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Through the eyes of Iraqis Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you rate availability of jobs as very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad? 200720052004 %% Very good 311 7 Quite good172719 Quite bad4423 Very bad353446 Refused/don’t know - 5 6

52. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Through the eyes of Iraqis Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you rate supply of electricity as very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad? 200720052004 %% Very good 211 8 Quite good113527 Quite bad373028 Very bad512437 Refused/don’t know - 1 1

53. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Through the eyes of Iraqis Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you rate availability of clean water as very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad? 200720052004 %% Very good 91920 Quite good223931 Quite bad352722 Very bad341526 Refused/don’t know - - 1

54. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Through the eyes of Iraqis Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you rate availability medical care as very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad? 200720052004 %% Very good 82717 Quite good233534 Quite bad352324 Very bad341322 Refused/don’t know - 2 3

55. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Through the eyes of Iraqis Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you rate local schools as very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad? 200720052004 %% Very good124337 Quite good31 35 Quite bad351715 Very bad21 711 Refused/don’t know - 1 3

56. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Through the eyes of Iraqis Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you rate availability of basic household items as very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad? 200720052004 %% Very good 82218 Quite good3038 Quite bad392324 Very bad231517 Refused/don’t know - 2 2

57. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Through the eyes of Iraqis Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you rate availability fuel for cooking or driving as very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad? % Very good 1 Quite good11 Quite bad40 Very bad48 Refused/don’t know -

58. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Through the eyes of Iraqis Q: I would like to ask you about today’s conditions in the village/neighbourhood where you live. Would you rate ability to move safely as very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad? % Very good 8 Quite good16 Quite bad40 Very bad35 Refused/don’t know -

59. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Through the eyes of Iraqis Q: For each item I read, please tell me if it has or has not occurred nearby here? Have occurred nearby here Have not occurred nearby here Refuse / don’t know %% Car bombs, suicide attacks3268 - Snipers, crossfire3070 - Fighting among sectarian factions2575 - Kidnappings for ransom4060 - Fighting between Iraqi government and anti- government forces 3466 - Unnecessary violence against citizens by US or coalition forces 4455 - Unnecessary violence against citizens by the Iraqi police 2476 - Unnecessary violence against citizens by the Iraqi Army 2476 - Unnecessary violence against citizens by local militia forces 3169 -

60. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Through the eyes of Iraqis Q: Have you or an immediate family member—by which I mean someone living in this household –been physically harmed by the violence that is occurring in the country at this time? % Yes17 No83 Refused/don’t know -

61. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Through the eyes of Iraqis Q: How concerned are you that you or someone living in this household might in the future become a victim of the violence that is occurring in the country? Is that something that worries you a great deal, somewhat, not so much, or hardly at all? % A Great Deal64 Somewhat22 Not So Much 9 Hardly At All 5 Refused/don’t know -

62. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Through the eyes of Iraqis Q: In the last few days, have you experienced any of the following because of the situation in our country at the present time? If Yes: Have you experienced it a great deal or somewhat? Yes, a great deal Yes, somewhat NoRefused / don’t know %% Trouble sleeping364025 - Difficulty concentrating on your work or usual activities 314128 - Feelings of anger364618 - Feelings of depression374023 -

63. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Through the eyes of Iraqis Q: In order to avoid trouble, how often, if ever, have you done any of the following over the past year? Is it very often, quite often, not so often or never? Very often Quite often Not so often Ne ver Refuse/ don’t know %%% Avoiding going out of your home18332722 - Not sending your children to school14262832 - Avoiding passing/driving by police stations and other public buildings 20352520 - Avoiding markets and other crowded areas 21332917 - Avoiding checkpoints29361420 - Avoiding US and other coalition forces463510 9 - Avoiding travel21332918 - Being careful about what you say about yourself to others 30371814 - Avoiding going to work or to apply for work 17262928 -

64. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Through the eyes of Iraqis Q: Who do you blame the most for the violence that is occurring in the country? % The United States/coalition forces31 President Bush 9 The Iraqi government 8 The Iraqi army 1 Iraqi police 1 Sunni militias/leaders 5 Shiite militias/leaders 6 Sectarian disputes 8 Al Qaeda/foreign jihadists18 Common criminals 6 Iran 7 Other - Refused/don’t know -

65. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Through the eyes of Iraqis Q: Which of these would be your preference to have in command of security in this area: the Iraqi police, the Iraqi army, coalition forces, local militia, or other extra- legal armed forces? % The Iraqi police46 The Iraqi army32 Coalition forces 9 Local militia 7 Other extra-legal armed forces 1 None 5 Refused/don’t know -

66. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Through the eyes of Iraqis Q: There are areas of Iraq where in the past Sunnis and Shiites lived together in the same mahallah. In some of these areas people are now separating— Sunnis moving to live among Sunnis only, Shiites moving to live among Shiites only. Has this separating of people been happening in this mahallah, or not? Would you say: % Yes, it has happened14 No, this mahallah (neighborhood) has been mixed and remains so 38 No, this mahallah (neighborhood) has never been mixed 47 Refused/don’t know -

67. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Through the eyes of Iraqis Q: Has this movement of people been mainly forcible, or mainly voluntary? % Mainly Forcible81 Mainly voluntary19 Refused/don’t know -

68. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Through the eyes of Iraqis Q: Do you think the separation of people on sectarian lines is a good thing or a bad thing for Iraq? % Good thing 6 Bad thing94 Refused/don’t know -

69. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Through the eyes of Iraqis Q: Thinking about your security, if you could do so, would you move to a different area of the country, or are you satisfied living in this location? % Move to different area19 I am satisfied living in this location 81 Refused/don’t know -

70. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Through the eyes of Iraqis Q: Again with your security in mind, if you could do so, would you move to a different country entirely, or are you satisfied living in Iraq? % Move to another country30 I am satisfied living in this location70 Refused/don’t know -

71. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Through the eyes of Iraqis Q: Do you personally think Iraq is or is not involved in a civil war at this time? % Yes42 No56 Refused/don’t know 2

72. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Through the eyes of Iraqis Q: Which of the following structures do you believe Iraq should have in the future? 200720052004 %% One unified Iraq with a central government in Baghdad, 587079 A group of regional states with their own regional governments and a federal government in Baghdad 281814 A country divided into separate independent states 14 9 4 Refused/don’t know - 3 3

73. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Through the eyes of Iraqis Q: There can be differences between the way government is set up in a country, called the political system. From the three options I am going to read to you, which ONE do you think would be the best for Iraq now? 200720052004 %% Strong leader: a government headed by one man for life 342628 Islamic state: where politicians rule according to religious principles 221421 Democracy: a government with a chance for the leader to be replaced from time to time 435749 Refused/don’t know - 3 4

74. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Through the eyes of Iraqis Q: Who do you think currently controls things in our country; is it the Iraqi government, the United States, somebody else, or no one? 20072005 % Iraqi Government3444 United States5924 Somebody else 417 No one controls things 3 6 Refused/don’t know - 9

75. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Through the eyes of Iraqis Q: Since the war, how do you feel about the way in which the United States and other Coalition forces have carried out their responsibilities in Iraq? Have they done a very good job, quite a good job, quite a bad job, or a very bad job? 20072005 % A Very Good Job 610 Quite a Good Job1827 Quite a Bad Job3019 A Very Bad Job4640 Refused/don’t know - 5

76. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Through the eyes of Iraqis Q: Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose the presence of Coalition forces in Iraq? 200720052004 %% Strongly Support 613 Somewhat Support161926 Somewhat Oppose322120 Strongly Oppose464431 Refused/don’t know - 310

77. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Through the eyes of Iraqis Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Nouri Kamel Al-Maliki is handling his job as prime minister? % Approve43 Disapprove57 Refused/don’t know -

78. Iraq War Economy: Displacement and Living Conditions Through the eyes of Iraqis Thank you