1. Forest damage in a changing climate Anna Maria Jönsson and Lars Bärring Dept. of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Analysis Geobiosphere Science Centre, Lund University

2. Ongoing activities within ENSEMBLES Progression since November 2006 1) Modelling the risk for frost damage to Norway spruce Conference proceedings Rammig, A Jönsson, A.M., Smith, B., Bärring, L., and Sykes, M. 2006: Projecting ecosystem response to climate extremes. Proceedings of the German Ecological Society, Bremen, p.16. Ongoing activities within ENSEMBLES Progression since November 2006

3. Ongoing activities within ENSEMBLES Progression since November 2006 2) Modelling the temperature dependent development of the spruce bark beetle Ips typographus Publications and reports Jönsson, A.M., Harding, S., Bärring, L. and Ravn, H.P. 200x: Impact of climate change on the population dynamics of Ips typographus in southern Sweden. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (accepted). Jönsson A.M. 2007: Beräkning av den åttatandade granbarkborrens temperaturberoende svärmning och utveckling år 2006. In: Svensson, L. Övervakning av insektsangrepp –Slutrapport från Skogsstyrelsens regeringsuppdrag. Skogsstyrelsen Meddelanden 1:2007, pp. 98-100. Jönsson A.M. 2007: Granbarkborren – en scenarioanalys för 2007-2008. Del 7: Scenarioberäkningar efter stormen Per, januari 2007. Rapport till Skogsstyrelsen, Lund 2007-01-22 Supervision of graduate student Gustaf Appelberg, HT 2006. Degree thesis in Environmental Science 20pThe impact of climate change on the temperature dependent swarming and development of the spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus, in Sweden Ongoing activities within ENSEMBLES Progression since November 2006

4. Ecosystem modelling of frost sensitivity Physiological responses of trees to climate change Increased risk of frost damage? Increased suceptibility for drought damage and/or pathogen attacks? Ecosystem performance? Research questions Acclimatisation of trees to seasonal fluctuations of temperature on a daily basis

5. Modelling cold hardiness of Norway spruce Hardening Dehardening Frost damage

6. CO 2 ºC Photosynthesis Respiration Allocation Growth Water flux Carbon flux Population dynamics Establishment Mortality Ecosystem modell LPJ-GUESS Cold hardiness Daily climate data ?

7. Preliminary results Sensitivity analysis of frost hardiness model The severity of frost events was affected by variations in the hardening rate, while changes in the dehardening rate had no significant influence during current climate conditions. Comparison between south and north of Sweden for the period of 1998 to 2005 Largest difference between modelled tree hardiness level and minimum temperature (south: 5°C, north: 14°C). Sum of frost events (south: 100°C, north: 200°C), Number of frost events (south: 55, north: 70). Correlation with observed crown defoliation (122 monitoring sites) The sum of frost events (R 2 =0.2), including the impact of tree age (R 2 =0.3). Performance of the ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS correlation between of observed and simulated productivity (R 2 =0.14, p<0.01). Improved degree of explanation by including frost damage modelling (R 2 =0.2, p<0.01) Simulations with the RCA climate data Decreased number of frost events in north Sweden. Increased number of extreme events with lower intensity in south Sweden, potentially causing more damage to trees

8. Impact of climate change on temperature dependent annual cycle of Ips typographus Spring swarming Egg developmentSummer swarming? Winter mortality Almost 100% for not completely developed bark beetles Egg development? >

9. First generation in mountainous areas of north Sweden Impact dependent on migration of Norway spruce Figure 6. The average day when the low temperature threshold for a fulfilled development of the first generation is reached for five different periods: 1961-1990 (i), 1981-2010 (ii), 2011-2040 (iii), 2041-2070 (iv) and 2071-2100 (v), according to three different scenarios: A2, A1B and B2. The value is calculated based on the frequency of development (figure 7). The scale shows the day number. A2 A1B B2 1961-19901981-20102011-2040 2041-20702071-2100 October July

10. A second generation will be initiated in the south part of Sweden Figure 10. The average starting day for the early initiation of the second generation for five different periods: 1961- 1990 (i), 1981-2010 (ii), 2011-2040 (iii), 2041-2070 (iv) and 2071-2100 (v), according to three different scenarios: A2, A1B and B2. The value is calculated based on the frequency of development (figure 11). The scale shows the day number. A2 A1B B2 1961-19901981-20102011-2040 2041-20702071-2100 October July

11. Frequency of completed development of the second generation during the 30-year period Figure 15. Number of years when the thermal sum calculated for the early initiation of the second generation exceeds 625 d.d. in 30 years for five different periods: 1961-1990 (i), 1981-2010 (ii), 2011-2040 (iii), 2041-2070 (iv) and 2071-2100 (v), according to three different scenarios: A2, A1B and B2. A2 A1B B2 1961-19901981-20102011-2040 2041-20702071-2100 30 15 0

12. Temperature dependent swarming and development of Ips typographus in 2006 Timing of spring swarming Timing of summer swarming Completed development of second generation XX October September August July June May

13. Pilot studie: a seasonal prognosis of the temperature dependent development of the first generation of Ips typographus Prognostiserad uppnådd temperatursumma efter granbarkborrens vårsvärmning (median av 40 ensemble-medlemmar), samt standardavvikelse mellan ensemble-medlemmar, per den 1, 15 och 31 juli år 2005-2007.

14. Seasonal prognosis of temperature sum after spring swarming of Ips typographus according to 40 ensemble-members

15. Publications in preparation Jönsson, A.M. et al. Warming up for spring frost damage in Europe. (manuscript) Rammig A., Jönsson A.M., Smith B., Bärring L., Sykes M. (in prep). Simulating acclimatization of Norway spruce: Linking a cold hardiness model to an ecosystem model. Rammig A., Jönsson A.M., Smith B., Bärring L., Sykes M. (in prep). Frost hardiness and impacts of extreme temperature backlashes on Norway spruce in a changing climate. Appelberg, G., Bärring, L., …. Jönsson, A.M. : Impact of climate change on the population dynamics of Ips typographus in Sweden. (manuscript)