1. Relating changes in extremes to impacts over the Mediterranean: developments since the AGM and application to D6.8 Tom Holt Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK ENSEMBLES WP6.2, Helsinki, April, 2007

2. Summary Not much time spent on WP6.2 –Two months on another project –Work on other ENSEMBLES WPs RT8 –Public participation in science Web site –Stakeholders RT4 –Ambient climatology behind Mediterranean extremes WP6.2 –Web site –Review of models

3. DeSurvey Data may be of use in WP6.2 –ERA-40 on 1 degree grid over Mediterranean Standard variables 6-hourly 1958-2002 –Downscaling to 1 km resolution Weighted by topography Most of Spain and mainland Greece done Based on above ERA-40 data

4. RT 8: Public web site (1) Two sections –ENSEMBLES –Climate change Need contributions –Particularly on climate change part –url: www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~tomh/ensemblespublic

5. RT 8: Public web site (2)

6. RT 8: Public web site (3)

7. RT 6.2 Web site

8. Setting the scene: labour Agricultural labour as % of total labour 1961-2004

9. Setting the scene: irrigation % of crop land under irrigation 1961-2003

10. Setting the scene: meat production Meat production (tonnes) 1961-2005

11. Setting the scene: exports Food exports as % of total exports 1962-2002

12. Chickens (1961-2005)

13. Chickens: climate vulnerabilities Temperature –>25 deg C: loss of appetite, lower egg production –>30 deg C: illness Water –Up to 0.3 litres/day –3-4 times that on hot days

14. HadCM3 (A2a) annual total number of days with tmax>25 deg C 1961-1980 2041-20602081-2100 2001-2020

15. HadCM3 (A2a) annual total number of days with tmax>30 deg C 1961-1980 2041-20602081-2100 2001-2020

16. Sheep (1961-2005)

17. Sheep: climate vulnerabilities Temperature –>30 deg C: decline in milk yield and fat content even with low humidity –>32 deg C: reproduction declines, rams can become impotent for 2-3 months Water –3.6 litres/day in winter, 14 litres/day in summer –more on very hot days

18. HadCM3 (A2a) annual total number of days with tmax>32 deg C 1961-1980 2041-20602081-2100 2001-2020

19. Tourism receipts (billion $, 1990- 2001)

20. Tourism Problems making links with climate data –Too many other variables? –Numbers of tourists might be more appropriate statistic than income from tourists Lack of good data available free –Europe is trying but is not there yet

21. Agricultural models The following climate vulnerability models have been developed and can be done for all Europe (where relevant!) –Wheat –Potatoes –Chickens –Sheep –Cattle –Citrus –Olives –Grapes

22. D6.8 (1) Preliminary report on changes in climate extremes and their relation to flood risk, agriculture, forest and property damage –Requires models on: Human health Flooding Drought Wind storm Forest damage Agriculture (not clearly specified in the DoW)

23. D6.8 (2) UEA has models on: Human health –heat stress –Atmospheric pollution Drought –What impacts? Agriculture + a small contribution to wind storm and flooding return period modeling and probabilities of extremes –Other partners are also contributing to human health and agriculture.