1. ENSEMBLES GA Prague Center for Environmental Systems Research University of Kassel Joseph Alcamo & Martina Weiß

2. Joseph Alcamo & Martina Weiß Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany Who we are / what we do Current status / recent progress Plans for the next phase / contributions to deliverables and milestones

3. Joseph Alcamo & Martina Weiß Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany Who we are / what we do Center for Environmental Systems Research at the University of Kassel WaterGAP – a global model of water availability and water uses European-wide probabilistic assessment of climate change impacts on river discharge (18 catchments)

4. Joseph Alcamo & Martina Weiß Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany Current status / recent progress Response surface method Impact of climate change (T and P) on river discharge Change in T and P uniform over time Change in T and P differs with seasons (critical seasons)

5. Joseph Alcamo & Martina Weiß Elbe Po Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany Current status / recent progress perturbed physics experiment of the Hadley Centre 1990 – 2010 2080 – 2100

6. Joseph Alcamo & Martina Weiß Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany Points of concern

7. Joseph Alcamo & Martina Weiß Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany Points of concern Aggregate climate info to basin size Need climate info to adjust response surfaces (extend study / zoom in) Difference to multi model simulations: seasonality (JJA vs. individual months) Elbe

8. Joseph Alcamo & Martina Weiß Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany Plans for the next phase / contributions to deliverables and milestones D6.13: Methodological report on the linking of preliminary probabilistic projections from the Ensemble Prediction System to impact models. + Month 42 D6.19: Report on the assessment of changes in regional weather and climate and their impacts in East Mediterranean. Month 46 with RT2B = D2B.26 Month 48 with RT2B D6.14: Joint WP 6.2 paper on the use of probabilistic climate projections in assessing the risk of impacts in Europe. Month 54

9. Joseph Alcamo & Martina Weiß Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany Plans for the next phase / contributions to deliverables and milestones M6.14: Completion of preliminary probabilistic assessments of climate change impacts using calibrated impact models: Month 42 Major milestone 6.4: Completion of probabilistic assessments of climate change impacts, and impacts at seasonal to decadal timescales for the core activities: crops, water resources, forests, energy, insurance and human health. Month 48

10. Joseph Alcamo & Martina Weiß Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany Thank you!

11. Joseph Alcamo & Martina Weiß Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany WaterGAP Water use model model Hydrology model Land CoverLand Cover ClimateClimate PopulationPopulation IncomeIncome TechnologyTechnology ClimateClimate Water Availability (by 0.5° grid-cell) RunoffRunoff RechargeRecharge Water Withdrawals Domestic(by country) Domestic(by country) Industrial (by country) Industrial (by country) Irrigation (by grid-cell) Irrigation (by grid-cell) Livestock (by grid-cell) Livestock (by grid-cell) Watershed Water Stress Watershed

12. Joseph Alcamo & Martina Weiß Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany WaterGAP Daily water balance per grid cell