1. Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute of Agricultural Sciences ENSEMBLES Tove Heidmann & Jørgen E. Olesen, DIAS

2. Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute of Agricultural Sciences Main objectives of our study To construct impact response surfaces from sensitivity analyses of the DAISY models To estimate the likelihood of exceeding critical thresholds of impacts related to crop production and nitrogen leaching using probabilistic information about future climate

3. Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute of Agricultural Sciences What have we achieved so far We have made som preliminary sensitivity analyses from different sites in Europe (response surfaces, temperature, precipitation) We have not yet combined the sensitivity analyses with probabilistic information about future climate

4. Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute of Agricultural Sciences WP6.2 tasks, milestones Task 6.2.8: Construction of impact response surfaces for selected impact models of crops, soil carbon and nitrogen, and water resources Task 6.2.11: Application of preliminary results from the Ensembles prediction System to impact models for estimating risks of extremes and risk of impacts Milestone 6.12: Work Package 6.2 meeting to report progress in applying probabilistic information to impact models and to agree on common approaches and reporting of result (April, 2007) Milestone 6.14: Completion of preliminary probabilistic assessments of climate change impacts using calibrated impact models (February, 2008)

5. Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute of Agricultural Sciences WP6.2 Deliverables Deliverable 6.7: Preliminary report on a comparative study of response surface and multiple scenario approaches to assessing risks of impact using selected impact models (Contribution to the report, results from simulations with the Daisy model, February, 2007) Deliverable 6.13: Methodological report on the linking of preliminary probabilistic projections from the Ensemble prediction system to impact models (Contribution to the report, February, 2008)

6. Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute of Agricultural Sciences Main questions requiring discussion How and when do we get the climate data? How do we investigate the combined response of changes in temperature, summer rainfall, winter rainfall and CO 2 concentration (multidimensional response surfaces) Common thresholds in similar studies?

7. Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute of Agricultural Sciences Discussion The seasonal variation in changes in temperature and precipitation may be more important than the total yearly change Sensitivity analyses with the impact model –effect of the seasonal climate on crop growth and leaching Analysis of climate data –try to reduce the response surface to two- dimensional, find relationships between the climate factors

8. Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute of Agricultural Sciences Kimmo Ruosteenoja, Timothy R. Carter, Kirsti Jylhä and Heikki Tuomenvirta (2003): Future climate in world regions: an intercomparison of model-based projections for the new IPCC emissions scenarios. Finnish Environment institute

9. Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute of Agricultural Sciences Discussion