1. Evaluating the impacts of climate change on hydrology and water resources Phil Graham Fredrik Wetterhall Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Norrköping

2. What are our main objectives? investigate impacts of climate change on stream discharge by transferring the climate change signal from RCMs to hydrological rainfall-runoff models identify areas at risk to both changes in flooding and drought conditions conducted in the Nordic Region at varying scale – continental scale: entire Baltic Sea Basin – regional scale: entire national territory of Sweden – basin scale: individual drainage basins in Sweden

3. Studies at Varying Scales

4. Link to work package objectives? Response surfaces for selected applications Direct use of multiple regional model projections Comparison of outcomes from the two methods

5. What have we achieved?

6. Response Surfaces - Runoff Lake Mälaren Lule River

7. RS - Flood Frequency Lake Mälaren Lake Vänern

8. RS - Lake Levels Lake Mälaren Low levels

9. RS - Extended Period with Maximum Discharge Lake Vänern Current regulation rulesProposed regulation rules (earlier releases)

10. WP 6.2 Tasks 6.2.8 construction of response surfaces 6.2.9 scenario impacts and risk assessment 6.2.11 application of Ensembles Prediction System D6.7 & D6.13

11. Questions for Discussion How should we deal with seasonality using the response surface approach? What is the proper level of detail for critical thresholds? What will we actually get from the climate models (i.e. probabilistic info.) ? How to choose which transient simulations to use with direct impacts simulations?

12. Questions for Discussion Creating seasonally dependent sensitivity surfaces? PrecipitationTemperature

13. Questions for Discussion Creating seasonally dependent sensitivity surfaces? PrecipitationTemperature

15. Continuous Simulations (transient) 1961-2100 Change in river flow (10-yr running mean) compared to 1961-1990 RCA3 sres-A2

16. Continuous Simulations (transient) 1961-2100 Change in river flow (10-yr running mean) compared to 1961-1990 RCA3 sres-A2

17. Continuous Simulations (transient) Work in Progress! 1961-2100 Change in river flow (10-yr running mean) compared to 1961-1990 RCA3 sres-A2 sres-B2

18. Modelled Change in Hydropower Potential for the Lule River 2071-2100 compared to 1961-1990

19. Modelled Change in Hydropower Potential in Sweden 2071-2100 compared to 1961-1990