1. 1 TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005 Is the Gautrain the solution? Romano Del Mistro TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005

2. 2 Six objectives To promote economic growth, job creation and SMMEs To relieve congestion To demonstrate government’s commitment to public transport To restructure the apartheid city To give expression to an integrated transport plan To improve environmental conditions

3. 3 TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005 Public debate… Good public participation programme, became focussed on NIMBY Alternative modes were not debated sufficiently The best alternative needs to be shown to be the best

4. 4 TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005 Inadequate debate leads to … Incorrect public perception of professional competence –Loss of public credibility in and support for future initiatives aimed at sustainable transport Waste of resources

5. 5 TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005 Contents Looking for an alternative Some details A question of scale

6. 6 TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005 Public transport alternatives Not limited to current experience

7. 7 TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005 This is also a bus service Seoul Forty kilometres of dedicated median lanes on major trunk lines ITDP, June2005; Seoul

8. 8 TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005 This is also a bus service Jakarta 6,000 pass/h per direction. Articulated buses can boost capacity to 9,600 ITDP, January2005; Jakartal

9. 9 TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005 This is also a bus service Mexico City –250 000 daily passengers

10. 10 TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005 This is also a bus service Bogota By 2015, TransMilenio: 5 million pass / day 388 km of busways 37 km of trunk lines 57 stations 28 pedestrian overpasses 4 terminals of integration Control centre Total cost US$ 198.8 million

11. 11 TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005 This is also a bus service Curitiba

12. 12 TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005 This is also a bus service Eindhoven –Phileas

13. 13 TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005 Choosing an alternative Capacity Cost per passenger Capital cost Speed Appropriate technology Safety Comfort Convenience Image –National Pride –To attract car user –To promote public transport

14. 14 TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005 Choosing …. Capacity (Pk hr/direction) Maximum link volume –7400 (2000) –13800 (2016) Ex Brocklebank et al (2001) –Estimated at: – 5000 (2005) – 5400 (2010) Ex Corporate.gautrain.co.za Minibuses 5400 / 15 seats = 367 trips Buses 5400 / 50 seats= 110 trips

15. 15 TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005 Choosing …. Capacity (Pk hr/direction) Lloyd Wright, 2003 I will come back to passenger estimate

16. 16 TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005 Choosing …. Cost/passenger Subsidy = Cost - fare Additional subsidy = (R51-R36) *5400/.11*250 = R184 million /year (R331m?)

17. 17 TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005 Choosing…. Capital cost HIGHER RISK WHEN INVESTING IN RAIL Used this value; not R7, R8-, R12-, R20-, or R24- billion)

18. 18 TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005 Choosing…. Speed High speed rail –62 km –35 minutes, plus –10 minutes to station – 5 minutes wait –10 minutes to work = 60 minutes Slower mode: –62 km –44 minutes, plus –10 minutes to station – 5 minutes wait –10 minutes to work = 69 minutes IS IT WORTH IT?

19. 19 TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005 Some details… Estimating the trips Peak hour passengers/ direction (1+1+1+1)*800 +(3+2)*2200 = 14200 cars 1,3 pass/vehicle and 20% to Gautrain = 3692 pass/hr High values require more explanation of modelling ? 1 1 1 3 2 1

20. 20 TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005 Some details…. Capital paid “Generally the capital costs are paid by government, therefore only operating costs should be considered in selecting the mode.” A political decision to pay for some of the capital costs. But we (passengers or citizens) pay for all the costs; either as fares or as taxes.

21. 21 TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005 A question of scale To ensure ridership –Densify corridor wrt housing and employment? –Delay new freeway construction? Buses can carry over 20 000 peak hour pass/direction Creates a precedent for longer travel distances. –Average = 20 km Website –Average = 35 km Brocklebank et al (2001 )

22. 22 TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005 A question of scale What if only 2200 peak hour pass/direction? –(114-56) *2200 /.11*250 = R290 million/year (or R430million/year) –R 321 million/year subsidy for 16000 peak hour bus passengers / direction in Greater Johannesburg. What percentage risk in a Public Private Partnership is fair to government? –R18b / R20b?; R10b/ R20b?; R5b/R20b?

23. 23 TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005 A question of equity. R12 billion plus on the relatively more affluent. What is being spent on the deteriorating rail network ?

24. 24 TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005 A question of objectives Define objectives –National pride –Reviving inner city property values –Greater development plans? –Region must have its train! –Degree of mobility Shanghai MagLev

25. 25 TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005 A question of open debate Test modelling assumptions in open debate –Alternatively, ask the private sector what it will ask for it to take 100% of the risk.

26. 26 TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005 A question of alternatives Test transport alternatives –Rail high speed –Integrated Rail SA –At-grade bus Can always be upgraded –Mixed grade bus Even revisit corridor development goals

27. 27 TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005 Conclusion Public transport services that are –Safe, convenient, reliable, accessible and affordable Must consider all alternatives to implement the best solution Gauteng to follow up Car Free Day with indaba Saturday October 22, 2005 09:16 - (SA) Gauteng transport MEC Ignatius Jacobs will follow up Car Free Day with a commuter indaba as a step to champion commuter rights, his office announces ………………

28. 28 TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005 Thank you OR O

29. 29 TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005 Thank you OR O

30. 30 TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005 Total cost/passenger (R/trip)

31. 31 TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005 Operating Cost/passenger (R/trip)