1. Can Mobility Management have a Serious Impact on Climate Change? Viewpoints by Raf Canters and Jan Christiaens (Mobiel 21) Moderated by Graham Lightfoot (Mendes GoCar Limited) ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London

2. Introduction Graham Lightfoot (Mendes GoCar Limited) ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London

3. 3 Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London www.eltis.org Todays interactive session welcome & method (5) short round on viewpoints (2x15) discussion round 1 (20) changeover (5) discussion round 2 (20) wrap up and general conclusions (10)

4. 4 Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London www.eltis.org -The ELTIS Café wants to boost dialogue and exchange experience and ideas in small but inspiring groups. -The ELTIS Café aims to further encourage the exchange of ideas and experiences in a less formal but still unconventional way. -To do this, ELTIS organises several sessions at various events where participants sit together at small tables as in a café. -Brief presentations by proponents of different viewpoints on the same topic are made and then two rounds of discussion are held. Introduction and goal

5. 5 Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London www.eltis.org What is ELTIS? The European Local Transport Information Service (ELTIS) is Europes number one web portal on urban transport and mobility It is an initiative of the European Commission's Directorate General for Energy and Transport

6. 6 Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London www.eltis.org ELTIS aims to: Provide information and support the exchange of experience in the field of urban and regional transport in Europe.

7. 7 Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London www.eltis.org On-line contents News Events Calls and tenders Tools for practitioners EU initiatives and policies Case studies Links User association Vote & win

8. Todays viewpoints Raf Canters and Jan Christiaens (Mobiel 21) ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London

9. A Serious Impact on Climate Change? Raf Canters (Mobiel 21) ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London

10. 10 Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London www.eltis.org -TERM 2007 report: performance of the transport sector towards future targets for emission reductions. Previous and current EU policies have mainly focused on improving vehicle technology and fuel quality to reduce pressures on the environment. Trends and projections show that these policies have not been enough to reach the targets. Short-term projections indicate that emissions from transport will increase in almost all EU-27 Member States (exception: Germany). Technology measures are and will be insufficient to meet the targets. Climate for a transport change?

11. 11 Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London www.eltis.org -The main messages are clear: Implementation of non-technical measures, including behavioural change, must continue and if possible be intensified. If the increase in transport volumes is not limited, other measures will not be enough to achieve a sustainable transport system and give the necessary contribution to limiting climate change. Transport demand measures and policy instruments must be implemented in sectors other than transport and thus must be addressed by policies other than transport policy. -But messages & reality: different things… Climate for a transport change? (2)

12. 12 Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London www.eltis.org Lets face it: transport grows

13. 13 Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London www.eltis.org Lets face it: transport grows (2) -Increased car usage and a reduced number of passengers per car negate the emissions improvements gained from vehicle efficiency. -The number of passenger kilometres grew every year between 1990 and 2004. * air +49% * car +18% (2004 = 74% of all passenger transport) * rail EU 15 +17%, NMS -49% * bus EU 15 +10%, NMS -11% * cycling, walking …? [wait for sustainable mobility observatory] -Alternative fuels policy is starting to take effect, but is this good? -Market shares of road and air travel are continuing to grow. -Access to many basic services is dependent on car use. -Present price structures are favouring individual transport. -Infrastructure - in particular road and high-speed rail - expands.

14. 14 Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London www.eltis.org Lets face it: transport grows (3) A serious impact? Lets be modest on the impact of MM -Look out the window: mobility management is still a niche within the transport sector and transport policy. -Considering the scope of transport we often dont manage mobility, we manage the mobility others allow us to manage, something to play with.

15. 15 Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London www.eltis.org Climate change and transport -Transport globally accounts for 14% of greenhouse gas emissions (fuel based, not taking into account production). -A lot of ideas on how transport- related emissions might be reduced, foremost by combination of strong technological innovation and behavioural change. -To a large degree these reductions are offsetting future growth rather than absolute reductions!

16. 16 Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London www.eltis.org Climate change and transport (2) -MM does not target industry or building solutions. It is targeted at transport (reducing car use, better public transport) urban planning (stop sprawl in your community) and policy (opportunities that make economic and environmental sense) solutions. -Climate change might be countered in many different ways. Most solutions involve increasing the efficiency of our energy use to reduce fossil fuel demand, while maintaining (or improving) our lifestyles.

17. 17 Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London www.eltis.org Climate change and transport (3) A serious impact? -Our lifestyles have changed. Early 20 th Century President Herbert Hoover promised "a chicken in every pot and a car in every garage." -In 2008 some are having second thoughts about all those cars. It seems they should instead be worrying about the chickens. -2007 United Nations report on livestock and the environment indicated insights that suggest that the environmental community has focused its efforts almost exclusively on abating carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. -Data published by Dr. James Hansen and others show that CO 2 emissions are not the main cause of observed atmospheric warming. James Hansen….Is he another global warming sceptic?

18. 18 Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London www.eltis.org Climate change and transport (4) Lets be more modest on the transport impact in general -Hansen is Director of NASAs Goddard Institute for Space Studies who has been called a grandfather of the global warming theory. -Its true that human activity produces vastly more CO 2 than all other greenhouse gases put together. However, this does not mean it is responsible for most of the earths warming. -This result is not widely known in the environmental community, due to a fear that polluting industries will use it as an excuse. -The fact remains that sources of non-CO 2 greenhouse gases are responsible for virtually all the global warming were seeing and are going to see for the next fifty years. If we wish to curb global warming we must look at strategies to address non-CO 2 emissions. The strategy with the most impact is becoming a vegetarian…

19. MM as a catalyst in tackling climate change Jan Christiaens (Mobiel 21) ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London

20. 20 Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London www.eltis.org Doomsday scenario? -TERM 2007: Transport grows -Scepticism about effectiveness of ongoing measures and policies - Scepticism about role of GHG in climate change

21. 21 Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London www.eltis.org Doomsday scenario? (2) -Mid-term Review of White Paper: Transport grows

22. 22 Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London www.eltis.org Doomsday scenario? (3) -Scepticism about effectiveness of ongoing measures and policies -Main focus on vehicle technology and fuel -Trends and projections show that these policies have not been enough to reach the targets. -Main offender is growing transport demand.

23. 23 Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London www.eltis.org Doomsday scenario? (4) -Scepticism about role of GHG in climate change -The Global Warming Swindle -Dr. Jansen of NASA -Public opinion is confused

24. 24 Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London www.eltis.org MM as a catalyst Mobility paradox Growing transport and failing policies do not have to cause doubts about the role of MM. On the contrary, growing transport demand and failing technological measures will cause an increasing demand for mobility management. Lets be ready for it!

25. 25 Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London www.eltis.org MM as a catalyst (2) Effectiveness of mobility management Impact assessment of various policy scenarios to reduce CO2- emissions from passenger cars (Report by Centre for European Economic Research 2006) 3 scenarios Scenario 1:baseline Scenario 2: 120 g CO2/km by 2020 Scenario 3A: 125 g CO2/km by 2020 Scenario 3B:125 g CO2/km + information, taxation and management measures

26. 26 Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London www.eltis.org MM as a catalyst (3)

27. 27 Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London www.eltis.org MM as a catalyst (4)

28. 28 Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London www.eltis.org MM as a catalyst (5) Conclusion? -Scenario 2 and 3B generate comparable results in spite of higher permitted baseline-emission in 3B Moreover: 3B does even better ! - MM fortifies the effects of measures on vehicle technology and energy-efficient use of passenger cars.

29. 29 Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London www.eltis.org MM as a catalyst (6) Success stories (report of EEA 2008, conducted by the Transport Research Laboratory) -6 major cases reviewed -Cases with quantitative measurements on CO2-reduction -Wide scope of measures

30. 30 Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London www.eltis.org MM as a catalyst

31. 31 Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London www.eltis.org MM as a catalyst (8) Success stories Ecodrive programme in the Netherlands: 222.000 tonnes Speed control in Rotterdam: 1.000 tonnes (15%) Congestion charging in London: 16,4 % Evironmental Zone in Prague: 1.650 tonnes Freight Consolidation Centre in London: 75 % Teleconferencing in UK(BT): 100.000 tonnes

32. 32 Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London www.eltis.org MM as a catalyst (9) Conclusions - Transferability: schemes are transferable and are already being implemented in other cities and regions as we speak - Implementation:stakeholder involvement is crucial - Co-benefits: air quality, reduced noise, reduced congestion, improvements in traffic safety

33. 33 Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London www.eltis.org MM as a catalyst (10) Conclusions - Economic benefits:technology adaptations tend to generate net costs BUT behavioural changes tend to generate net benefits ! - Success factors: implementation of accompanying measures (mobility management), strong leadership and awareness raising In other words: MM is a catalyst in achieving good results for measures in planning, regulation and economical measures.

34. 34 Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London www.eltis.org MM as a catalyst (10) Conclusion -Growing transport = growing share of transport in GHG-emissions (from 14 % in 2006 to 21 % in 2008 according to EEA) -Growing transport and travel demand together with EU-objectives to counter climate change will cause an increase in demand for mobility measures in planning, regulation, economical situations and information. To maximize the success of implemented measures mobility management, awareness raising, stakeholder involvement and strong leadership are crucial.

35. 35 Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London www.eltis.org Last but not least... Who has yet to be convinced of the destructive role of GHG in Climate Change? - IPCC is formal about impact of GHG - ECCP (European Climate Change programme) - Dr Jansen: rebel without a cause? - Controversial opinions stick out of course, but the worldwide consensus among scientists has never been greater!

36. Questions - Discussion Graham Lightfoot (Mendes GoCar Limited) ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London

37. 37 Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London www.eltis.org Questions round 1 (+/-20 minutes) 1.What are the strengths/weaknesses of MM with regard to climate change? 2.What are the opportunities/threats for MM with regard to climate change?

38. 38 Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London www.eltis.org Questions round 2 (+/-20 minutes) Building on the strengths and opportunities: How do we accelerate the implementation of Mobility Management measures? How do we better communicate Mobility Management measures to key stakeholders?

39. 39 Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London www.eltis.org Conclusions and wrap up (+/-10 minutes) - collection of notes from the different hosts - the different ideas and solutions are compiled

40. 40 Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London www.eltis.org Thank you for your contribution! Well meet again @ www.eltis.org