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© Experian Information Solutions, Inc. 2007. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian.

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Presentation on theme: "© Experian Information Solutions, Inc. 2007. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian."— Presentation transcript:

1 © Experian Information Solutions, Inc. 2007. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company names mentioned herein may be the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Automotive Finance Industry Trends Melinda Zabritski Director, Automotive Credit

2 © Experian Information Solutions, Inc. 2007. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. 2 Concerns in Auto Finance - Overall, the studies discovered that consumers appear to be struggling more than ever with their finances, with one survey even finding that one in four Americans missed making one or more bill payments on time last year… (Sub-prime Auto Finance News) — Consumers will owe more on their car loans than the actual value of the car at an increasing level. According to Edmunds.com, 25.6 percent of customers who traded in used vehicles in 2007 for a new one had negative equity in the transaction. (Auto Remarketing) … “The delinquency rate (30 day) on ‘indirect’ auto loans arranged through dealerships jumped in the third quarter to 2.86 percent, a 16-year high.…” – American Bankers Association

3 © Experian Information Solutions, Inc. 2007. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. 3 Automotive Trends: Data Sources  Quarterly 5% random national sample of consumer credit files  Overall trends looks at all open automotive loans as a quarterly snapshot and extrapolates u 65.9MM loans with $818 billion (3Q07)  Originations trend looks at only those loans opened within the quarter u 5.1 MM loans with $94 billion (3Q07)  AutoCount Risk Report u Loans only – no leases u Vehicle sales with automotive financing  Sourced from state title registrations

4 © Experian Information Solutions, Inc. 2007. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. 4 2007 Loan Originations CaptiveBankCredit UnionFinance 0.20% increase in loan originations -2.39% decrease in amount financed Source: Experian, 1Q2007 – 3Q2007

5 © Experian Information Solutions, Inc. 2007. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. 5 Changing credit quality in loan originations Source: Experian, 1Q2007 – 3Q2007 25% increase in highest risk category

6 © Experian Information Solutions, Inc. 2007. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. 6 Rolling Quarters: Loan Originations Source: Experian 35.5% increase in Below Subprime Market Share

7 © Experian Information Solutions, Inc. 2007. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. 7 Portfolio Snapshot More consumers are slipping into the higher risk categories: they’re coming on prime – but not staying there Source: Experian

8 © Experian Information Solutions, Inc. 2007. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. 8 Recent Delinquency: Currently 60 DPD Source: Experian 18% increase in current delinquency

9 © Experian Information Solutions, Inc. 2007. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. 9 Where are we on term? Source: Experian

10 © Experian Information Solutions, Inc. 2007. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. 10 When is Attrition Occurring

11 © Experian Information Solutions, Inc. 2007. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. 11 2007 Attrition by Term Half of all 60 MO Term loans attrite by months 34/35 8.67% of all 60 MO Term loans attrite by month 6

12 © Experian Information Solutions, Inc. 2007. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. 12 What are consumer purchasing Source: Experian Automotive, November 2007 1.6% increase in used vehicle market share over October 2007

13 © Experian Information Solutions, Inc. 2007. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. 13 New v Used Vehicle Sales Source: Experian Automotive, November 2007

14 © Experian Information Solutions, Inc. 2007. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. 14 Sales by Score Distribution Source: Experian Automotive, November 2007 27.47% of NEW vehicle loans score below 680 56.02% of USED vehicle loans score below 680

15 © Experian Information Solutions, Inc. 2007. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. 15 Captives v Non-Captive finance Source: Experian Automotive, November 2007 Over 52% of November 2007 financed vehicles

16 © Experian Information Solutions, Inc. 2007. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary. 16 In conclusion  Over -2% decrease in outstandings despite a slight increase in originations  Continued growth in both lowest and highest risk tiers  Loan quality appears to be shifting away from prime after originations  Increased occurrences of 60 day delinquency – excluding finance companies  Decreases in loan term from peak of 3Q2006  Attrition continues to plague lenders: new purchase and refinance  Growth in used vehicle financing with shifting credit quality between captives and non-captives

17 © Experian Information Solutions, Inc. 2007. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company names mentioned herein may be the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Automotive Finance Industry Trends Contact: melinda.zabritski@experian.com


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