1. Understanding Ecosystem Thresholds in Global Change Living with climate change: are there limits to adaptation? Tyndall Centre and GECHS 2008 Dennis Ojima Robert Corell (ojima@heinzctr.org) T HE H. J OHN H EINZ III C ENTER FOR S CIENCE, E CONOMICS AND THE E NVIRONMENT

2. Global Climate Change and Impacts Impacts to Ecosystems Adaptation Strategies OUTLINE T HE H. J OHN H EINZ III C ENTER FOR S CIENCE, E CONOMICS AND THE E NVIRONMENT

3. Warming greatest at high latitudes 5 warmest years: 1998, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 5 warmest years: 1998, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 Amplification of warming due to decrease of albedo (melting of snow and ice) Amplification of warming due to decrease of albedo (melting of snow and ice)

4. IPCC 2007

5. Signals from nature T HE H. J OHN H EINZ III C ENTER FOR S CIENCE, E CONOMICS AND THE E NVIRONMENT Lara Hansen / WWF Jeremy Little / University of Washington

6. Source: Camille Parmesan Spring comes about 2 weeks earlier Across the USA, tree swallows are nesting 9 days earlier than 40 years ago Laying date is highly correlated with May temperature

7. PINE BARK BEETLE OUTBREAK

8. (1) Predator – aggressive Bark Beetle (2) Co-evolution – host defenses Small weak predator / large dangerous prey  Mass Attack strategy (3) Required synchrony of emergence at appropriate time of year (4) No diapause – direct Temperature Control of Seasonality MPB BASIC ECOLOGY Interesting question: Focus of seasonal temperature triggers for overwintering populations and synchronous emergence without diapause J. Logan

9. Now 385 ppm Now 385 ppm 650 ppm 3.5 o C 650 ppm 3.5 o C 450 ppm 2 o C 450 ppm 2 o C 550 ppm 3 o C 550 ppm 3 o C Ocean Acidification Pine Bark Beetles Sea Level Rise Biosphere Vulnerabilities Coral Bleeching A Concept for a Adaptation/Impacts Multi-Space A framing within which coping strategies are addressed Time Scale: This Century

10. ADAPTATION DESIGN Adaptive Management practices are local and need to take into account the complex, non-linear behaviour of socio-ecological systems Use of appropriate scenarios and downscaling techniques of climate change effects Full risk/uncertainty assessments Projects need to be linked to capacity building & technology transfer Co-development of an integrative management plan should treat the system as a socio-ecological system

11. Downscale Key Parameters at needed Scale Develop the 4 Quad Scenarios with Drivers Tease out Key Projections with Multi-Stresses Set the Time Scales visa Climate Conditions Craft and Implement Long-Range Plan Frame the Downscale 4 Quad Scenarios Set Time Scale Controlling Projections Frame the Context and Scale (cities, water, etc.) 25-40 yr. Implementation Plan Key Tracking Indicators and Evaluate Progress Track Progress A Coping/Adaptation Cascade A Process to Craft a Long-Term (i.e., 25-40 years) Continuously Up-datable Adaptation Plan Focused on Climate Change with Exacerbating Stresses Problem

12. Governance and Policy Actions Socio-Environmental Processes GWG Conc. Processes Respond Rapidly These Processes Respond very Slowly Aggressive Policy Action Weak to Little Policy Action “Lots” of Luck Scenario 1.Scenario Details 2. 3.. n Easy Street Scenario 1. Scenario Details 2. 3.. n “Get with it” Scenario 1. Scenario Details 2. 3.. n “Well just Delay” Scenario 1. Scenario Details 2. 3.. n 4 Quad Scenario Framework

13. Infrastructure Household Decision-making Political Economy, Institutions Change Scenarios Climate and other Environmental Influences Land Use Economy Land Tenure Ecosystem services Cooperation/ Enabling Mechanisms Demography Mitigation Adaptation Strategies (long-term) Coping Tactics (short-term) T 1 Household goals, Initial conditions Resilience / Vulnerability Galvin et al DECISION MAKING FRAMEWORK

14. Application of Adaptation Cascade in partnership with local communities, states, and other resource management entities Development of Adaptive management strategies to deal Ecological Thresholds Developing technological, scientific, socio-economic tools for addressing adaptation needs SUMMARY T HE H. J OHN H EINZ III C ENTER FOR S CIENCE, E CONOMICS AND THE E NVIRONMENT

15. A Survey of Climate Change Adaptation Planning http://www.heinzctr.org/NEW_WEB/PDF/ Adaptation_Report_October_10_2007.pdf T HE H. J OHN H EINZ III C ENTER FOR S CIENCE, E CONOMICS AND THE E NVIRONMENT