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U.S. Nuclear Program – A Status Report APPA Board of Directors Meeting Marvin S. Fertel President and Chief Executive Officer September 14, 2010
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Sustaining Excellent Reactor Performance Record electricity production in recent years Produces 20% of electricity with 10% of U.S. capacity Nuclear energy dominates CO 2 -free electricity portfolio Most reliable electricity producer at 90% capacity factor 2009: 799 billion kilowatt-hours 2009: 90.5% capacity factor
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Strong Public Support Continues 74% Favor Use of Nuclear Energy 87% Favor Renewing Licenses 87% Important for Our Energy Future 70% Definitely Build New Reactors 77% Acceptable at Nearest Site Source: Bisconti Research Inc./Gfk Roper March 2010 poll of 1,000 U.S. adults; margin of error is +/- 3%
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U.S. Public Opinion 1983 – 2010: Favorability to the Use of Nuclear Energy for Electricity Annual Averages Until 2010, Percentages Bisconti Research, Inc. survey of 1,000 U.S. adults; margin of error +/- 3 percentage points
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U.S. Public Opinion: Acceptability of Adding a New Reactor Next to Nearest Operating Nuclear Power Plant (2005 – 2010) Percentages Bisconti Research, Inc. survey of 1,000 U.S. adults; margin of error +/- 3 percentage points
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Source: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Nuclear Plant Uprates Uprate Highlights 5,744 MW of power uprates approved since 1977 3,526 MW of uprates under review and expected to be implemented by 2014 Plant Completions Watts Bar 1123 Mwe (under construction) Bellefonte Unit 1 & 2 1256 Mwe (construction suspended – being considered)
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59 Granted 18 Under NRC Review 21 Intend to Renew Source: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission 6 Unannounced Preparing for Longer-Term Operation DOE and EPRI collaborating on extended operation Industry investing in extended operation through replacements, upgrades and uprates EIA’s 2010 Annual Energy Outlook reference case assumes 41 nuclear units will operate beyond 60 years License Renewals Continue...
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Obama Administration Actions That Support Nuclear Energy Expansion Significantly improved and expanded the loan guarantee program – Announced $8.3 billion loan guarantee for Southern Co.’s $2.0 billion for AREVA Uranium Enrichment Plant – $36 billion increase in loan volume in FY 2011 budget $73.8 million in clean energy manufacturing tax credits awarded too nuclear manufacturers Nominated three qualified candidates for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
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22 reactors under active review at NRC – First licenses late 2011, early 2012 Nuclear plant design certification – Three design certifications in progress – Two previously certified designs being updated First movers have started site preparation, ordered long-lead components Expect four to eight reactors in commercial operation 2016-2018 U.S. manufacturing supply chain growing Snapshot of New Nuclear Plant Development
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Cost of Electricity from Nuclear and Gas-Fired Capacity TechnologyNuclear Gas (Combined Cycle) Project Structure PF with LG 80% Debt 20% Equity RB with CWIP 50% Debt 50% Equity PF 50% Debt 50% Equity EPC Cost ($/kWe) $4,000 - 4,500$1,000 Total Cost ($/kWe) $5,500-$6,100$4,800-$5,400$1,200 Fuel Cost (nuclear - $/MWh) (coal/gas - $/mmBtu) $7.50$4.00$7.00$10.00 Capacity (MWe) 1,400400 First Year Busbar (2009 $/MWh) $75 - 81$106 - $116$56$76$97 Levelized Busbar (2009 $/MWh) NA$80 - $86NA Impact of C0 2 Price at $30/Ton (2009 $/MWh) NA Add $18.00 Source: NEI Financial Model PF – Project Finance, RB – Rate Base, CWIP – Construction Work in Progress, LG – Loan Guarantee
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100% 94% 82% 80% 63% Construction Cost (% of First of a Kind ) Construction Duration (Months) 1995 19982002 2004 2010 ~ 2011 63% Learning Curve Opportunity – Korean Example 39 Goal Yonggwang 3, 4 Ulchin 3, 4 Shin Wolsong 1, 2 Yonggwang 5, 6 Ulchin 5, 6 Shin Kori 1, 2
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Reactors Under Construction and Planned Worldwide Sources: International Atomic Energy Agency for units under construction and World Nuclear Association for units on order or planned. *Chart includes only countries with units under construction. **Countries planning new units are not all included in the chart. Planned units = Approvals, funding or major commitment in place, mostly expected in operation within 8-10 years. Updated: 8/10 Totals: 61 units under construction* 149 units on order or planned**
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Advanced Reactor Technologies Small modular reactors (25-350 Mwe) – Light water, high temperature and fast reactors – Generation, process heat and improve fuel use – Could be under construction in 10 years – Built in modules at a factory and shipped to site – T&D planning activities reduced – Potential replacements for old inefficient coal plants – Time to market -- six years assuming an ESP – Need more design information before economic assessments can be completed
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Summary of Studies on Climate Change Mitigation New Nuclear Generation Capacity Required SourceStudy /Analysis Number of new reactors* GigawattsTimeframe Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook 2010682035 Kerry/Lieberman, American Power Act (2010) 52722035 Waxman/Markey (2009)69962030 Lieberman/Warner (2008)1912682030 Environmental Protection Agency Kerry/Lieberman, American Power Act (2010) 1812532050 Waxman/Markey (2009)1872622050 Lieberman/Warner (2008)1792502050 National Academy of Sciences America’s Energy Future: Technology and Transformation (2009) 771082035 Electric Power Research Institute Prism/Merge Analyses: 2009 Update46642030 McKinsey & Company U.S. Greenhouse Gas Abatement Mapping Initiative - Mid-Range Case (2007) 18252030 *Based on a 1,400 MW average nuclear plant.
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Administration terminating the Yucca Mountain project – Blue ribbon commission to develop recommendations on used fuel management Interim storage safe, secure for indefinite period of time Used fuel issues not an impediment to operating reactors or new plant development Used Nuclear Fuel: The New Reality On-site storage for used fuel at the Surry station in Virginia
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Political Agenda Relationship strengthening/building and education NRC Commissioners Nomination/Confirmation Energy Policy Positions – Financing platform – Tax issues – Licensing clarifications Nuclear Waste Policy Act
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Political Agenda Oppose imposition of inappropriate new costs – D&D tax – Increase in decommissioning fund tax rate NRC oversight
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Conclusions Current 104 units sustained good performance Industry pursuing plant uprates ~ 3500 MW’s+ Industry pursuing license renewal – all 104 units – Greater than 60 years operation being explored New plants – 4-8 reactors in commercial operation 2016 – 2018 New small modular reactors being developed Significant expansion of nuclear necessary to meet 80 percent CO₂ reduction by 2050
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