1. Workshop on Future Water Supplies in Arizona June 21, 2006 1 Political Hurdles & Major Policy Issues Future Water Supplies for Central Arizona By Guy W. Carpenter

2. Workshop on Future Water Supplies in Arizona June 21, 2006 2 What did last visionaries think about? CopperCopper CattleCattle CottonCotton CitrusCitrus Colorado RiverColorado River CaliforniaCalifornia

3. Workshop on Future Water Supplies in Arizona June 21, 2006 3 We will not do things the same way, because our concerns and needs are not the same

4. Workshop on Future Water Supplies in Arizona June 21, 2006 4 What do today’s visionaries need to think about? Conjunctive MgmtConjunctive Mgmt Climate changeClimate change PowerPower NEPANEPA Highest & Best UseHighest & Best Use Balanced Use (allocation)Balanced Use (allocation) International relations (Mexico)International relations (Mexico)

5. Workshop on Future Water Supplies in Arizona June 21, 2006 5 What Drives Us? Response to GrowthResponse to Growth Legal frameworkLegal framework AvailabilityAvailability ReliabilityReliability Water qualityWater quality ConstructabilityConstructability –Implementation –ROW –Cost Social Acceptance of UseSocial Acceptance of Use ExchangeabilityExchangeability UsesUses

6. Workshop on Future Water Supplies in Arizona June 21, 2006 6 What Drives “Them”? Relatively lower housing pricesRelatively lower housing prices Good economic outlookGood economic outlook Air ConditioningAir Conditioning Open Space – Boating - FishingOpen Space – Boating - Fishing Intel/Motorola – Town Lakes – AerospaceIntel/Motorola – Town Lakes – Aerospace Golf & ResortsGolf & Resorts Market reflects values, visions, & desires (not needs)Market reflects values, visions, & desires (not needs)

7. Workshop on Future Water Supplies in Arizona June 21, 2006 7 What do we know? Growth will continueGrowth will continue –Doubling population in 30 years Water is available for millions more peopleWater is available for millions more people Less elasticity when a drought happensLess elasticity when a drought happens Tension exists outside the water arenaTension exists outside the water arena –Transportation –Air Quality –Public Lands –Education Doing “nothing” is not a viable alternativeDoing “nothing” is not a viable alternative

8. Workshop on Future Water Supplies in Arizona June 21, 2006 8 What is our role? Simply respond to demand that “other people” determine OR Provide input and advice

9. Workshop on Future Water Supplies in Arizona June 21, 2006 9 Major Policy Issues Predicting development patterns & populationsPredicting development patterns & populations –Bring water in (Expand in historical pattern) –Go to water (Metroplex not important) –Go to where there is no infrastructure –Economy impacts – We do have some control

10. Workshop on Future Water Supplies in Arizona June 21, 2006 10 Major Policy Issues Why are we conserving?Why are we conserving? –Every water provider’s reason and method for conserving is different because of its water portfolio, community goals, and finances. –Can you achieve conservation through market methods? like SO2 creditslike SO2 credits Get paid for savingGet paid for saving

11. Workshop on Future Water Supplies in Arizona June 21, 2006 11 Major Policy Issues CAGRDCAGRD –Should it be just a bridge or a permanent supply –Has become the “means”, not the “bridge” –Should CAGRD be expanded and strengthened, OR should it be limited? –How should the governance issue be dealt with?

12. Workshop on Future Water Supplies in Arizona June 21, 2006 12 Major Policy Issues Address the disconnect between adequacy and growthAddress the disconnect between adequacy and growth Address the loop holesAddress the loop holes Exempt wellsExempt wells Lot splitsLot splits

13. Workshop on Future Water Supplies in Arizona June 21, 2006 13 Major Policy Issues Bringing in new suppliesBringing in new supplies –Are we going to build a lot of individual projects –Consolidate the projects into one plan and effort –High competition –NEPA –Use Federal dollars? one Congress, many entitiesone Congress, many entities –Avoid Federal dollars?

14. Workshop on Future Water Supplies in Arizona June 21, 2006 14 Major Policy Issues Allocation of waterAllocation of water –Balance projected market forces with public policy interests M&I (growth = $$$)M&I (growth = $$$) Agriculture (might be good in post-911 era to keep some)Agriculture (might be good in post-911 era to keep some) Environment & Recreation (quality of life)Environment & Recreation (quality of life) Can there be Statewide vision for the fate of mainstem Colorado River water?Can there be Statewide vision for the fate of mainstem Colorado River water? –Way of life –3 rd party impacts –Do we allow market forces

15. Workshop on Future Water Supplies in Arizona June 21, 2006 15 Major Policy Issues Regional or statewide water collaborationRegional or statewide water collaboration –Are existing tensions productive? –Should the environment have a water right? –Financing ability –Plan for climatic variability –MUST examine the trade-offs

16. Workshop on Future Water Supplies in Arizona June 21, 2006 16 Political Hurdles How do we devise a system that can serve all the state’s water needs?How do we devise a system that can serve all the state’s water needs? –Municipal –Agricultural –Environmental Are our water management institutions equipped for the challenges we face?Are our water management institutions equipped for the challenges we face? Do new institutions need to be established?Do new institutions need to be established? Can a common vision be established for Arizona?Can a common vision be established for Arizona?

17. Workshop on Future Water Supplies in Arizona June 21, 2006 17 As you move through today’s exercises, consider these public policy issues