1. World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water New Terminal area Weather Forecast CAeM-XIV TECO February 6, 2010 Cyndie Abelman, Stéphanie Desbios CAeM-XIV TECO Feb 6, 2010www.wmo.int WMO

2. 2/2CAeM-XIV TECO New Terminal Forecast Outline WMO Background International Trend Expert Team on New Terminal Forecast and progress update Proposed prototype templates

3. 3/2CAeM-XIV TECO New Terminal Forecast Background WMO ATM user expectationATM user expectation –hazardous wx (thunderstorm, crosswind, low vis, icing, turb, etc.) impact on airport capacity and flight routes wx related delays  extra fuel  increase cost to airlines impact on ATM procedures, especially when below wx minima. –complex ATM decision-making  needs more precise wx info and forecast, in both time and space, need for sharing same wx info –Increasing air traffic  route, approach and aerodrome capacity  push to limits –Aviation users (airlines) started to experiment/use probabilistic forecasts for decision making

4. Background Existing MET servicesExisting MET services –Standard products: TAF, TREND, take-off forecast etc.  Annex 3 standard – focused on the needs of airlines/pilots and ATS (address mainly ATC needs but not ATM/ATFM ones) –Limitations and gaps (not currently addressed by any regulated ICAO products): Significant convection impacting approach areas, corner points and fixes  significant impact to ATM operations. Crosswind, winter conditions… not included TAF - limited for aerodrome area, not sufficient for ATM requirement. Ascent and descent weather not addressed by TAF –not sufficient to support complex ATM decision making

5. International trend Different countries develop different products -to cater for the gap -to address national users needs with products of the highest scientific level

6. International trend Automated Thunderstorm Alert Service (Australia) )

7. International trend MIT Lincoln Lab Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT) Operational at New York since 2002. Integrated into FAA Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) An automated decision support tool (DST) intended to help air traffic controllers and airline dispatchers determine the specific departure routes and departure times that will be affected by operationally significant convective weather.

8. International trend TC Forecast Tracks Strike probability Pilot Project lead by the Hong-Kong Observatory

9. International trend Forecasting board (France): Tabular form with alerting thresholds

10. International trend Colour coded ATMetC capacity forecast Japan ATMetC time series forecast from NWP model Colour coded ATMetC capacity forecast Ensemble and Deterministic Forecasts for Canadian airports issued by the CMC

11.  Similarities ! –More details between 0-2 hours  nowcasting products –Probabilistic forecast –Use of graphical/tabular form with alerting criteria –Lead times exceed the 2-hour limitation of TREND forecast –Weather briefing in plane language –Collaborative Decision Making products (all partners share the information)  costly parallel development of similar products  high risk of confusion between similar products using different ways of textual or graphical presentation to users International trend

12. Expert team on New Terminal Forecast CAeM 2006  Set up Expert Team on New Terminal area weather Forecast (ET/NTF) Australia, Canada, China, France [co-chair], Hong-Kong, China, USA [co-chair] With the task to - develop, harmonize and promote a prototype of a forecast for the wider terminal area intended * mainly for ATM/ATC and operations staff * for used at terminal with high traffic density - work with ATM to ensure it address needs - work with ICAO to establish a standard/recommended practice

13. User requirements - ICAO-WMO Working Arrangements - ICAO  define user requirements following an extensive, multi-stage consultation process with all stakeholders Regional  MET/ATM TF Global  AMOFSG  ad hoc working group comprising experts from WMO, Eurocontrol and the USA to coordinate user input and guide the work of the WMO Expert Team from the requirements perspective.

14. User requirements Initial ET/NTF Meeting in Hong Kong, March 2007 - User Discussion and Gap analysis Agreed on existing gap between en route aviation weather and aerodrome weather Critical weather information need for the last 20-25 minutes of approach - Weather elements of particular importance Icing Snow removal Low level and surface wind Convection Low ceiling and visibility Turbulence Wake vortices

15. The group agreed that the definition of the “ terminal area ” should be that of IATA (ATM Implementation Roadmap – Short and Medium Term (release version 1.0 2004-10-15): The Terminal Area is defined as that portion of the airspace within the proximity of a controlled aerodrome within which arriving and departing aircraft are managed to provide separation, assurance, appropriate arrival spacing, appropriate departure spacing and final approach sequencing. Expert team on New Terminal Forecast

16. Example of Terminal Area : IAF : Initial Approach Fix FAF : Final Approach Fix

17. ET/NTF progress update Expert Team 2 nd Meeting in Montreal, September 2008 - Focus on a few elements Convection Surface wind Winter weather - Formulate work plan for prototype in 2013 Prepared documents describing existing capabilities for the wind and convection parameters Proposed prototype solution set for wind and convection based on current efforts at a number of regions

18. New Terminal Forecast - Provide critical weather information for terminal area - Have a common look and feel - Be used at terminals with high traffic density - Not all terminals will have this new forecast - TAF should be consistent with NTF

19. Prototypes : convection Three timeframes –Nowcast –Short-term forecast –Outlook

20. Convection / nowcast Based upon radar 0-1 hour, 6-minute forecasts Within 100 km of aerodrome Gridded coverage 3 to 5-level depiction of convection Polygon shows expected movement with arrow and speed Time series for user-defined information Text description

21. 0-6 hours Hour or less forecast Within 300 km of aerodrome Updated every 3 hours Gridded coverage –Polygon shows expected movement with arrow and speed –Time series for user-defined information Convection / short-term forecast

22. 6 hours to 2 days 3-hourly forecasts 300 km from aerodrome Updated every 12 hours Snapshot of forecast convection Convection / outlook

23. Prototypes : wind Elements : 4-dimensional gridded wind 2-dimensional profiles 100km/300 km around aerodrome Objects enhancing gridded data High horizontal resolution (0.2° or less...) Each FL FL100 to FL530 Several height levels below FL035 Hourly or more forecasts for 0-6 hours 3-hourly forecasts for 6-24 hours out to 2 days

24. Wind / gridded data Medium term wind forecast : 300km/100NM around aerodrome 0.25° resolution NWP data Thresholds/colours Short term wind forecast : 100km/50NM around aerodrome High resolution (0.1°) NWP data Thresholds/colours

25. Wind / gridded data Short term wind forecast : 100km/50NM around aerodrome High resolution NWP data Thresholds/colours

26. Wind / profiles 2D-wind profile along approach path Crosswind intensity along approach path -15NM -10NM -5NM XXXX 5NM 10NM 15NM -30NM -20NM -10NM XXXX 10

27. Wind / time series - objects Time series Wind probability forecast Wind objects

28. Wind / probabilistic forecast Gridded probabilistic forecast of wind speed over certain threshold Area Of Interest (see 1) /Forecast time HHMM +1hour HHMM +2hours --- HHMM+6ho urs HHMM +9hours --- HHMM+21ho urs HHMM+24ho urs XXXX airport 26KT 280°28KT 290° --- 22KT 280°20KT 300° --- 15KT 320°15KT 330° Way point 1 28KT 280°30KT 290° --- 25KT 300°20KT 300° --- 15KT 320°15KT 330° Way point 2 28KT 280°30KT 290° --- 25KT 280°20KT 300° --- 12KT 320°12KT 330° FAF1 15KT 220°20KT 260° --- 28KT 280°20KT 300° --- 15KT 300°15KT 330° FAF2 20KT 270° --- 30KT 280°20KT 300° --- 15KT 320°15KT 330° YYYY airport26KT 280°28KT 290°---22KT 280°20KT 300°---15KT 320°15KT 330°

29. Integrated display To facilitate users to have full situational awareness of all weather elements of significance to their operational decision- making a “one-stop shop” integrated display for NTF Icons/buttons for the various elements being forecast Graphical display/window for the elements discussed above Time series in tabular form with colours indicating the severity/probability Textual display showing a summary of the synopsis Display of other additional/supplementary information, e.g. history of actual observations, PIREPs, AMDAR, etc could be user-selectable. Other information

30. Integrated Display http://www.ntwf.weather.gov.hk/

31. Graphical, tabular form = Add-on to data- oriented information Keep the human operators well-informed of the data exchange between the relevant systems of data producers and users Facilitate users to understand, monitor, and where necessary, provide forecasters’ input, as a basis for operational decisions. New Terminal Forecast prototypes

32. HK, China, sets up ET/NTF website (www.ntf.weather.gov.hk) for sharing of information and facilitate users’evaluationwww.ntf.weather.gov.hk New Terminal Forecast

33. Continue to Engage User Community for feedback –- IATA Washington, October 2009 –- ASIA/PACIFIC MET/ATM TF/1 Bangkok, Thailand, 2 – 4 December 2009 –- METATM TF Paris, France, January 2010 –- CAeM XIV Hong Kong, February 2010 –- AMOF SG Melbourne, Australia, February 2010 Next steps

34. Important to get your views on this ! http://www.ntwf.weather.gov.hk/ Login caem_ntf Password caemcaem Prototypes and questionnaire to collect feedback

35. Next steps –Low level windshear and turbulence (2015) –Icing in terminal area (2015) –Runway conditions forecast (winter weather types) (2015) –Wake turbulence (2016) –Noise abatement and air quality forecast (2016) –Probabilistic forecasts of convection, ceiling and visibility, wind (2018) –Verification

36. Thank you ! New Terminal Forecast

37. forecast for the next few hours based on extrapolation (e.g. radar echo movement) –include some growth and decay element –still have limitation because of rapid changes of small scale weather systems Numerical weather prediction model –Improvements so far higher resolution, higher computing power, more observation data –Limitations initial state – not fully known small scale systems – too fine to be fully represented forecast accuracy depends on spatial scale of weather system –large scale (e.g. cold front) – more predictable –small scale (e.g. thunderstorms) – more uncertain forecast accuracy depends on temporal scale –longer lead time – more uncertain Forecast cannot be 100% correct Techniques available: Uncertainty in weather forecast

38. NWP verification Monitoring and verification of numerical model

39. Nowcasting techniques –forecast for the next few hours based on extrapolation (e.g. radar echo movement) –include some growth and decay element –still have limitation because of rapid changes of small scale weather systems Uncertainty in weather forecast Techniques available:

40. 15:30 HKT 16:00 HKT 16:30 HKT HKIA Uncertainty of arrival time of rapid- developing thunderstorms Uncertainty in weather forecast

41. Initiatives –- probabilistic forecast –- real-time verification info in forecast products –…..  Facilitate ATM to adjust how much trust to be put on the product at the time Uncertainty in weather forecast

42. probabilistic forecast + real-time verification results Sample in the U.S. – Convective Weather Forecast for Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) and Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) Or Confidence level Uncertainty in weather forecast

43. Expectation in weather forecast

44. Communicate scientific limitation Based on science and technology Expectation in weather forecast