1. Prof Jan Van Dijk Household Security and European Trends in Burglary Copenhagen, March 20, 2013

2. “An open door may tempt a saint”

3. Burglary victimization rate, ICVS 2005 3

4. Trends in rates of victimization by burglary in five european countries (national surveys) 4

5. The Danish exception Over the past ten years household burglaries have been decreasing across the Western world according to police records and surveys But not in Denmark ! The Danish rate of police-recorded burglaries of 1.939 per 100.000 in 2009 is the highest rate ever recorded by UNODC anywhere in the world

6. The crime boom and bust cycle 6 Van Dijk (2008)’

7. Diagnosing the Danish exception Most Western countries have by 2005 come full circle: greater opportunities led to higher burglary rates, led to more fear of burglary, led to improved security, led to reduced opportunities, led to lower burglary rates (led to reduced fear……..). Hypothesis: In Denmark the spontaneous feedback loop of improved security has been relatively slow 7

8. % of public thinking a burglary in their house in the coming year is likely 8

9. Risk assessment of the public and actual victimization rates in 2004 9

10. Not a Care in the World Considering the actual burglary risks in Denmark, concern about burglary should have been two times more common than it is. Lack of concern prevents Danish households from investing in their security? 10

11. % households with security locks 11

12. LEVELS OF HOME SECURITY IN EIGHT WESTERN NATIONS in 2004 High-grade door locks, 2004 (%) Burglar alarm, 2004 (%) England and Wales 6041 Netherlands 7815 Canada 4828 Germany 6314 Sweden 4616 Estonia 407 Switzerland 295 Denmark 329 3 oktober 201512

13. Rates of home security in 2004 and burglary victimization trends between 2004 and 2010 in eight countries High-grade door locks, 2004 (%) Burglar alarm, 2004 (%) Burglary rate,2004 (%) Burglary rate, 2010 (%) Change burglary rate (%-point) England and Wales 60413.51.5- 2.0 Netherlands 78151.30.8- 0.5 Canada 48282,01.3- 0.7 Germany 63140.91.2+0.3 Sweden 46160.71.0+0.3 Estonia 4072.53.0+0.5 Switzerland 2951.11.9+0.8 Denmark 3292.73.6+0.9 3 oktober 201513

14. Levels of household security in 2004 (high grade locks and alarms) and changes in burglary rates between 2004 and 2010 3 oktober 201514

15. The crime and security loops 3 oktober 201515

16. Trends in the use of burglar alarms and trends in burglary vicimization since 1992 by income quartiles in twelve Western nations (ICVS 1989- 2005) percentages secured percentages victimised 3 oktober 201516

17. Policy interventions Why are Dutch houses the best secured in Europe ? Regulatory securitization: 1. Security certification since 1990 promoted by police (Politie Keurmerk) 2. Mandatory security standards incorporated in national Building Code in 1999 17

18. Security certification of housing situation At the initiative of the police both existing and newly built houses can be certified, looking at: Urban environment (recreational facilities, routing) Immediate environment (lightening) Building (preferably not more than 5 levels, surveillance) Dwelling (security locks, fire alarms) 18

19. Effectiveness More than 500.000 housing units have been certified (50.000 per year) Burglary risk per unit was reduced by 90% Source: De Effectiviteit van het PKVW, DSP Group, 2004 Reduced fear of burglary Reduced insurance premiums 19

20. Change in building regulations in the Netherlands in 1999 All new-built homes must have burglary-proof windows and doors, regardless of their vulnerability 20

21. Natural experiment in regulation of built-in security Homes built under old Building Code Transition period Homes built under new Building Code Year of construction of the home Homes meeting new regulations (%) COMPARE

22. The impact of mandatory security on domestic burglary in NL ; source: Vollaard & Van Ours, 2010 3 oktober 201522

23. Benefits outweigh costs Benefits over lifespan of home: €560 p/h (less losses, less expenses for police etcetera) Costs of measures+ enforcement: €430 p/h Benefits far exceed the costs A country which introduces mandatory security standards increases its welfare Such country will also reduce widening security gap between income groups 23

24. A lesson for Denmark? Security feedback loop in Denmark is falling behind Certification and national regulation of household security is indicated It would be even more cost effective than in NL because of higher burglary rates 24