1. Tsunami Early Warning Some thoughts and Lessons learned Jörn Lauterjung GFZ Potsdam

2. Tsunami-prone Areas Japan, 2011 Sumatra, 2004 Mentawai, 2010
Java, 2006
Chile, 2010

3. The International UNESCO Framework Intergovernmental Coordination Groups (ICG)
Schon im Januar 2005 hat die UN anlässlich einer grossen Tagung zur Katastrophenminderung in Kioto, Japan, die UNESCO beauftragt die nationalen Aktivitäten zum Aufbau von Frühwarnsystemen zu koordinieren und dafür Sorge zu tragen, dass ozeanweite Warnstrukturen aufgebaut werden. Diese Arbeit ist in sogenannten Intergovernmental Coordination Groups organisiert, die sich regelmässig treffen, Arbeitsgruppen etabliert haben, und entsprechende Absprachen und Leitlinien besprechen. In den ICG sitzen Regierungsvertreter, um den Beschlüssen entsprechendes Gewicht zu verleihen. Von deutscher Seite nimmt im Prinzip das AA diese Aufgabe war, hat aber in der Vergangenheit an BMBF bzw. GFZ delegiert.

4. General layout of warning systems
(end-to-end approach)
Sensorsystems
Seismometer
cGPS
Tide Gauge
Buoy Systems
Others
Warning Centre
Processing
Simulation
Descision-Support
Warning Message
Up-Stream
Measurement, Analysis, Decision
Dissemination
Local Communities
Down-Stream
Local Administration
Awareness, Preparedness, Reaction t

5. Realization in Indonesia
Warning Process

6. Scenarios - Source Generator
Warning Process
Patch concept: 2250 Patches of 45x15 km
Tsunamigenic zone (0-80 km depth)
Displacement model 1D layered (Wang et al.,2003)
> 3500 Scenarios in Tsunami Database

7. The Problem of Near Field Tsunami Forecasting
Warning Process
Far-field tsunami
Long tsunami travel distance compared to earthquake rupture length. In this case the rupture orientation (given by the fault orientation) is essential but details like the exact position of the rupture or slip distribution are not critical for tsunami forecast at a given coastal point.
Near-field tsunami
Tsunami travel distance in a similar order (of magnitude) of the earthquake rupture length. Exact position and parameters of the rupture plane as well as the slip distribution are essential for tsunami forecast at a given coastal point.

12. Honshu Earthquake ( )
Warning Process

13. Honshu Earthquake ( )
Warning Process

14. Multi Sensor Szenario Selection
Physical World
Quake → co-seismic deformation → Tsunamiwave → Inundation
sensor systems
SeisComp3
CGPS
Tide Gauges
Buoys
EQ parameters
Deformation vector
Ocean surface
matching
matching
matching
matching
EQ parameters
Deformation vector
Ocean surface
EQ parameters → RuptGen → TsunAWI
Numerical World

15. Decision Support System Situation and Decision perspective
Warning Process

16. Simulation and Warningprocess
Situation picture using tsunami simulation within 5 minutes:
Simulation selection from data base using many different sensors  improved situation judgement, help to overcome uncertainties
Simulation
Situation picture
Evacuation
Risk maps
Planning
2) Simulation used as tool for planning and disaster management

17. Simple rule-based decision process (decision matrix)

18. Simple decision process, based on precalculated hazard maps

19. Availability of tsunami risk assessment products sub-national scale 1 : 100 000
Warning Process
Tsunami Hazard map
Tsunami Exposure – Population map (day-, night time)
Tsunami Vulnerability map
Tsunami Risk map

20. Warning chain

21. Shelter (Banda Aceh)
Warning chain

22. Last Mile Capacity Development
Civil Protection
Hazard Mapping
“Low Tech – Method”
Science meets Politics
Padang Consultative Group
Warning Chain
Link national - local
Decision Making
“Local 24 / 7”
SOPs
Warning Dissemination
Dissemination
Technology
Local networks, FM-RDS
Evacuation
Planning
Based on Risk Analysis
Awareness Materials
Reader, Comics, Poster
Trainings
Workshops, DAPS
Checklist
Assessment, planning, monitoring 1 2 3 4
Contingency
Part of multi hazard approach

23. Reaction in affected areas
Tsunami early warning timeline for near field tsunamis T1 T2 T5 T4 T7 T3
<5min
min
> 90 min T6 T0
Local government: receiving warning, decision making whether to call for evacuation and providing guidance to community at risk
Community: reaction to the warning from BMKG & guidance from local government
(has to be done very quick as waves from local tsunamis arrive within short time)
Reaction in affected areas
Community: reaction to ground shaking
Earthquake
First Warning
Estimation of the threat
Warning 1
EQ parameter & tsunami potential and if available estimation of the threat:
Major Warning
Warning
Advisory
No threat
Warning 2
Update EQ parameter, warning levels and estimated times of arrival (ETA)
Tsunami Scenarios
Update Estimation of the threat
First Observation
End of threat
Second Observation
Further update (if any)
Third Observation
Warning 3.1
Updated EQ parameter, tsunami observation and updated warning levels
Warning 3.2
Warning 3.3
Warning 4
Tide gauge, Buoy, GPS
T0 – T4 = Critical time
Tsunami Wave 1
Tsunami Wave 2
Tsunami Wave 3
Seismic
Update on EQ parameter and warning level 23

24. Evacuation maps

25. Public information

26. The Project Documentation
TSUNAMIKit
Compilation of Project Outputs and Experiences
Background information
Checklist
Tools / Manuals / Guidelines
Fact Sheets
Further Resources
Bilingual / hard copy and digital / web-based
The Project Documentation

27. Organization and Administration
Aim: Implementation into the National Strategy, organizational and legal boundary conditions
Instruments:
Legal autorization as national task and duty, availability of institutional budgets
Clear definition of mandates for all agencies, institutions and bodies: national, governmental level, local
National Law 24/2007
New Disastermanagement Agency BNPB (2008)
Early Warning-Mandate for BMKG („BMKG“-Law, 2009)

28. Conclusion Tsunami Early warning improved remarkably in many regions
GPS improves the information situation in the early stage after an Earth quake for near field cases
There is still a long way to go to improve Early warning
More relevant information needed in the early stage after an Earth quake especially in the near field case: GPS, near real time inversion for slip distribution
Risk assessment including preparedness of local communities