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Tsunami-prone Areas Japan, 2011 Sumatra, 2004 Mentawai, 2010

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Presentation on theme: "Tsunami-prone Areas Japan, 2011 Sumatra, 2004 Mentawai, 2010"— Presentation transcript:

1 Tsunami Early Warning Some thoughts and Lessons learned Jörn Lauterjung GFZ Potsdam

2 Tsunami-prone Areas Japan, 2011 Sumatra, 2004 Mentawai, 2010
Java, 2006 Chile, 2010

3 The International UNESCO Framework Intergovernmental Coordination Groups (ICG)
Schon im Januar 2005 hat die UN anlässlich einer grossen Tagung zur Katastrophenminderung in Kioto, Japan, die UNESCO beauftragt die nationalen Aktivitäten zum Aufbau von Frühwarnsystemen zu koordinieren und dafür Sorge zu tragen, dass ozeanweite Warnstrukturen aufgebaut werden. Diese Arbeit ist in sogenannten Intergovernmental Coordination Groups organisiert, die sich regelmässig treffen, Arbeitsgruppen etabliert haben, und entsprechende Absprachen und Leitlinien besprechen. In den ICG sitzen Regierungsvertreter, um den Beschlüssen entsprechendes Gewicht zu verleihen. Von deutscher Seite nimmt im Prinzip das AA diese Aufgabe war, hat aber in der Vergangenheit an BMBF bzw. GFZ delegiert.

4 General layout of warning systems
(end-to-end approach) Sensorsystems Seismometer cGPS Tide Gauge Buoy Systems Others Warning Centre Processing Simulation Descision-Support Warning Message Up-Stream Measurement, Analysis, Decision Dissemination Local Communities Down-Stream Local Administration Awareness, Preparedness, Reaction t

5 Realization in Indonesia
Warning Process

6 Scenarios - Source Generator
Warning Process Patch concept: 2250 Patches of 45x15 km Tsunamigenic zone (0-80 km depth) Displacement model 1D layered (Wang et al.,2003) > 3500 Scenarios in Tsunami Database

7 The Problem of Near Field Tsunami Forecasting
Warning Process Far-field tsunami Long tsunami travel distance compared to earthquake rupture length. In this case the rupture orientation (given by the fault orientation) is essential but details like the exact position of the rupture or slip distribution are not critical for tsunami forecast at a given coastal point. Near-field tsunami Tsunami travel distance in a similar order (of magnitude) of the earthquake rupture length. Exact position and parameters of the rupture plane as well as the slip distribution are essential for tsunami forecast at a given coastal point.

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12 Honshu Earthquake ( ) Warning Process

13 Honshu Earthquake ( ) Warning Process

14 Multi Sensor Szenario Selection
Physical World Quake → co-seismic deformation → Tsunamiwave → Inundation sensor systems SeisComp3 CGPS Tide Gauges Buoys EQ parameters Deformation vector Ocean surface matching matching matching matching EQ parameters Deformation vector Ocean surface EQ parameters → RuptGen → TsunAWI Numerical World

15 Decision Support System Situation and Decision perspective
Warning Process

16 Simulation and Warningprocess
Situation picture using tsunami simulation within 5 minutes: Simulation selection from data base using many different sensors  improved situation judgement, help to overcome uncertainties Simulation Situation picture Evacuation Risk maps Planning 2) Simulation used as tool for planning and disaster management

17 Simple rule-based decision process (decision matrix)

18 Simple decision process, based on precalculated hazard maps

19 Availability of tsunami risk assessment products sub-national scale 1 : 100 000
Warning Process Tsunami Hazard map Tsunami Exposure – Population map (day-, night time) Tsunami Vulnerability map Tsunami Risk map

20 Warning chain

21 Shelter (Banda Aceh) Warning chain

22 Last Mile Capacity Development
Civil Protection Hazard Mapping “Low Tech – Method” Science meets Politics Padang Consultative Group Warning Chain Link national - local Decision Making “Local 24 / 7” SOPs Warning Dissemination Dissemination Technology Local networks, FM-RDS Evacuation Planning Based on Risk Analysis Awareness Materials Reader, Comics, Poster Trainings Workshops, DAPS Checklist Assessment, planning, monitoring 1 2 3 4 Contingency Part of multi hazard approach

23 Reaction in affected areas
Tsunami early warning timeline for near field tsunamis T1 T2 T5 T4 T7 T3 <5min min > 90 min T6 T0 Local government: receiving warning, decision making whether to call for evacuation and providing guidance to community at risk Community: reaction to the warning from BMKG & guidance from local government (has to be done very quick as waves from local tsunamis arrive within short time) Reaction in affected areas Community: reaction to ground shaking Earthquake First Warning Estimation of the threat Warning 1 EQ parameter & tsunami potential and if available estimation of the threat: Major Warning Warning Advisory No threat Warning 2 Update EQ parameter, warning levels and estimated times of arrival (ETA) Tsunami Scenarios Update Estimation of the threat First Observation End of threat Second Observation Further update (if any) Third Observation Warning 3.1 Updated EQ parameter, tsunami observation and updated warning levels Warning 3.2 Warning 3.3 Warning 4 Tide gauge, Buoy, GPS T0 – T4 = Critical time Tsunami Wave 1 Tsunami Wave 2 Tsunami Wave 3 Seismic Update on EQ parameter and warning level 23

24 Evacuation maps

25 Public information

26 The Project Documentation
TSUNAMIKit Compilation of Project Outputs and Experiences Background information Checklist Tools / Manuals / Guidelines Fact Sheets Further Resources Bilingual / hard copy and digital / web-based The Project Documentation

27 Organization and Administration
Aim: Implementation into the National Strategy, organizational and legal boundary conditions Instruments: Legal autorization as national task and duty, availability of institutional budgets Clear definition of mandates for all agencies, institutions and bodies: national, governmental level, local National Law 24/2007 New Disastermanagement Agency BNPB (2008) Early Warning-Mandate for BMKG („BMKG“-Law, 2009)

28 Conclusion Tsunami Early warning improved remarkably in many regions
GPS improves the information situation in the early stage after an Earth quake for near field cases There is still a long way to go to improve Early warning More relevant information needed in the early stage after an Earth quake especially in the near field case: GPS, near real time inversion for slip distribution Risk assessment including preparedness of local communities


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