1. Do Now: Review
In Birthday Gifts, Brier and Rogers found that 71% of married men will get flowers or buy jewelry for their wives on their birthdays. Fifty-eight percent of married men will buy jewelry and 39% of married men will buy flowers for their wives. What is the probability that a married man will buy flowers and jewelry for his wife’s birthday?
3 minutes

2. Conditional Probability
Unit 3: Probability

3. Objectives Calculate the probability of conditional events. GRIT
Works independently with focus
RESPECT
Knows when and how to include others
RESPONSIBILITY
Gets to work right away rather than procrastinating
LOVE OF LEARNING
Is eager to explore new things

4. Conditional Probability
Mutually Exclusive Events
Independent Events
Conditional Events
Probability of A given B
P(A│B)

5. Check for Understanding
Male
Female
Total
Democrat 47 13 60
Republican 36 4 40 83 17
100
What is the probability of a randomly selected house of representative being female?
What is the probability of a randomly selected house of representative being a female, given they are a democrat?

6. 41 40 42 43 45 44 39 38 33 32 34 35 37 36 46 47 56 55 57 58 60 59 54 53 49 48 50 51 52 31 30 9 8 10 11 13 12 7 6 1
End 2 3 5 4 14 15 25 24 26 27 29 28 23 22 17 16 18 19 21 20
Your Understanding
Andrea is a very good student. The probability that she studies and
passes her mathematics test is 17/20. If the probability that Andrea
studies is 15/16, find the probability that Andrea passes her
mathematics test, given that she has studied.

7. Independent Practice and Homework
Khan Academy: “Identifying Independent and Dependent Events” and “Dependent Probability” due for HW Monday
Gall-up Poll Project Check-in: Topic and Survey Questions to be ed to by Friday 2/13.