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Published byHorace Holland Modified over 9 years ago
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Remarks by Mark Pearson Independent Community Bankers Nashville, Tennessee March 12, 2012
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Back in Production… Any Way Possible Source: Matt Leavitt
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10-Year Corn Prices Source: NASS
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Corn Use: Fuel versus Food Source: USDA ‘02 EthanolFeed 64206420 Bushels ‘03‘05‘04‘06‘08‘07‘09‘10‘11
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U.S. Corn Ending Stocks as Percentage of Use Compliments of PHI Marketing
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World Corn Ending Stocks as a Percentage of Use Compliments of PHI Marketing
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USDA Corn Supply and Use 2010/11 est. (2/9/12) 2011/2012 proj. Area Planted88.2 91.9 Area Harvested81.4 84.0 Yield 152.8 147.2 Beginning Stocks 1,708 1,128 Production 12,447 12,358 Imports 2820 Supply, Total 14,182 13,506 Feed & Residual 4,793 4,600 Food, Seed & Industrial 6,428 6,405 Domestic Use, Total 11,220 11,005 Exports 1,835 1,700 Use, Total 13,055 12,705 Ending Stocks 1,128 801 Average Farm Price $5.18 $5.80-$6.60 Compliments of PHI Marketing
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World Corn Supply and Use 2009-10 2010-11 (est.) 2011-12 (proj.) Beginning Stocks 147.54 144.18 128.83 Production 819.23 827.54 864.11 Imports 89.76 91.34 92.84 Feed 488.48 494.41 510.83 Total 822.60 842.89 867.59 Exports 96.82 90.45 94.93 Ending Stocks 144.18 128.83 125.35 Million Metric Tons Compliments of PHI Marketing
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May ’12 Corn Source: CBOT
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December ’12 Corn Source: CBOT
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Light Sweet Crude Oil Source: NYMEX
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10-Year Soybean Prices Source: NASS
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Brazil’s Big Ag Expansion 2011-21 Source: DTN 75% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% CoffeeSoybeansCotton Exports Production 24%46%36%39%48%68%
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U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks As % of Use Compliments of PHI Marketing
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World Soybean Ending Stocks as Percentage of Use Compliments of PHI Marketing
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USDA Soybean Supply and Use 2010/11 Est. (2/9/12)2011/2012 Projected Area Planted77.4 75.0 Area Harvested76.6 73.6 Yield (bushels per acre) 43.5 41.5 Beginning Stocks 151 215 Production 3,329 3,056 Imports 1415 Supply, Total 3,495 3,286 Crush 1,648 1,615 Exports 1,501 1,275 Seed 87 88 Residual 43 32 Use, Total 3,280 3,011 Ending Stocks 215275 Average Farm Price $11.30 $11.10-$12.30 Compliments of PHI Marketing
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World Soybean Supply and Use 2009/10 2010/11 (est.) 2011/2012(Proj.) 2009/10 2010/11 (est.) 2011/2012(Proj.) Beginning Stocks 42.72 59.60 68.90 Production 260.85 264.18 251.47 Imports 86.83 88.83 90.76 Crush 209.50 221.09 227.42 Total 238.25 251.74 258.05 Exports 92.55 91.97 92.79 Ending Stocks 59.60 68.90 60.28 Million Metric Tons Compliments of PHI Marketing
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May ’12 Soybeans Source: CBOT
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November ’12 Soybeans Source: CBOT
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10-Year Wheat Prices Source: NASS
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USDA Wheat Supply and Use 2010/11 (2/9/12) 2011/2012 Projected Area Planted53.6 54.4 Area Harvested47.6 45.7 Yield (bushels per acre) 46.3 43.7 Beginning Stocks 976 862 Production 2,207 1,999 Imports 97120 Supply, Total 3,279 2,982 Food 926 935 Seed 71 82 Feed & Residual 132145 Exports 1,289 1,162 Use, Total 2,417 2,137 Ending Stocks 862 845 Average Farm Price $5.70 $7.15-$7.45 Compliments of PHI Marketing
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World Wheat Supply and Use 2009/10 2010/11(est.) 2011/2012 (Proj.) 2009/10 2010/11(est.) 2011/2012 (Proj.) Beginning Stocks 167.05 202.34 200.70 Production 685.43 651.61 692.88 Imports 133.58 130.07 135.91 Feed 115.36 112.42 130.66 Total 650.14 653.24 680.48 Exports 135.80 131.82 140.25 Ending Stocks 202.34 200.70 213.10 Million Metric Tons Compliments of PHI Marketing
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U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks As % of Use Compliments of PHI Marketing
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World Wheat Ending Stocks As Percentage of Use Compliments of PHI Marketing
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May ’12 Chicago Wheat Source: CBOT
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December ’12 Chicago Wheat Source: CBOT
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10-Year Cotton Prices Source: NASS
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May ’12 Cotton Source: CBOT
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December ’12 Cotton Source: NYMEX
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10-Year Cattle Prices Source: NASS
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April ’12 Live Cattle Source: CBOT
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December ’12 Live Cattle Source: CBOT
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April ’12 Feeder Cattle Source: CBOT
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November ’12 Feeder Cattle Source: CBOT
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January Milk Cows 2002-12 Source: NASS
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April ’12 Class III Milk Source: CBOT
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December ’12 Class III Milk Source: CBOT
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10-Year Hog Prices Source: NASS
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April ’12 Lean Hogs Source: CBOT
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December ’12 Lean Hogs Source: CBOT
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Inflation Adjusted Farmland Values 1964-2010 Source: Chicago Federal Reserve
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Recovering economy Demographics will drive ag/food product demand Next world industrial expansion: Africa U.S. continues to be ag technology leader U.S., China will drive African development Infrastructure build-out continues in South America ‘Youth bulge’ means growth in Middle East, but continued destabilization following Arab Spring What’s this mean for you: Continued strong demand for U.S. agricultural commodities Globally Local World: What’s Ahead
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