1. اپیدمیولوژی بیماری های قلبی عروقی در ایران و جهان
اپیدمیولوژی بیماری های قلبی عروقی در ایران و جهان
دکتر اکبر نیک پژوه متخصص طب پیشگیری و پشکی اجتماعی مرکز آموزشی، تحقیقاتی و درمانی قلب و عروق شهید رجایی 1392/10/21 اولین مدرسه زمستانی اپیدمیولوژی

2. تعریف اپیدمیولوژی
اپیدمیولوژی عبارت است از مطالعه توزیع و عوامل تعیین کننده حالات و یا پیشامدهای مرتبط با سلامتی در جمعیتهای معین و به کارگیری این مطالعه برای مبارزه با مشکلات بهداشتی

3. تعریف بیماریهای قلبی عروقی
براساس یکی از گزارشهای سازمان بهداشت جهانی بیماری های قلبی-عروقی شامل مجموعه اختلالات زیراست: •Hypertension (high blood pressure) • Coronary heart disease (heart attack) • Cerebrovascular disease (stroke) • Peripheral vascular disease • Heart failure • Rheumatic heart disease • Congenital heart disease • Cardiomyopathies • Deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism

4. پیشگفتار

5. پیشگفتار

6. پیشگفتار

7. پیشگفتار

8. Parts of Cardiovascular Epidemiology
1., Descriptive epidemiology:
= Describing distribution of cardiovascular disease by means of certain characteristics such as : PERSON (i.e., age, gender, ethnicity) TIME and PLACE
2., Analytic epidemiology
= Analyzing relationships between CVD and risk factors (which elevate the probability of a disease at population level), risk model and multicausal developments
3., Experimental epidemiology/Interventions
= Strategies of cardiovascular prevention (primordial, primary, secondary, tertiary; individual and community levels)

9. Descriptive Epidemiology I. Distribution Patterns in the World
In the world: CVD deaths account for one third of all deaths (25-50% depending on the level of economic development) among which 50%: coronary deaths
CVD made up 16.7 million of global deaths in 2002, among which 7 million due to coronary heart disease, 6 million due to stroke
Distribution of types of CVD in global deaths :
Global cardiovascular deaths in 2002: 16.7 million
among which: coronary heart disease 7.2 million > stroke 6.0 million > 0.9 million hypertensive heart disease > 0.4 million inflammatory heart disease > 0.3 million rheumatic heart disease > 1.9 million other CVD

10. Descriptive Epidemiology II. AGE
Question: What is the relative amount of CVD in death rates in different age groups?
- Early lesions of blood vessel, atherosclerotic plaques: around 20 years - adult lifestyle patterns usually start in childhood and youth (smoking, dietary habits, sporting behavior, etc.)
- Increase in CVD morbidity and mortality: in age-group of years

11. PROPORTION OF MORTALITY IN DIFFERENT AGE-GROUPS (MEN)

12. PROPORTION OF MORTALITY IN DIFFERENT AGE-GROUPS (WOMEN)

13. Descriptive Epidemiology III. SEX
Question: What is the relative amount of CVD in death rates in women and men?
- Widespread idea: CVD is often thought to be a disease of middle-aged men.
- Cardiovascular mortality (fatal cases) are more common among men. However, CVD affect nearly as many women as men, albeit at an older age
- Women: special case (WHO, 2004)
a., Higher risk in women than men (smoking, high triglyceride levels)
b., Higher prevalence of certain risk factors in women (diabetes mellitus, depression)
c., Gender-specific risk factors (risks for women only) (oral contraceptives, polycystic ovary syndrome)

14. Descriptive Epidemiology IV. ETHNICITY
Question: What is the relative amount of CVD in death rates in different ethnic groups?
- In the US: increased cardiovascular disease deaths in African-American and South-Asian populations in comparison with Whites
- Increased stroke risk in African-American, some Hispanic American, Chinese, and Japanese populations
- Migration: Ni-Hon-San Study: Japanese living in Japan had the lowest rates of CHD and cholesterol levels, those living in Hawaii had intermediate rates for both, those living in San Francisco had the highest rates for both

15. Descriptive Epidemiology VI. World Trends
Developed countries: decreasing tendencies (e.g, USA: 30% between , Sweden: 42%)
- improvement of lifestyle factors, for example, a decrease of smoking and a higher level of health consciousness in many developed countries
- better diagnostic and therapeutic procedures (e.g., bypass surgeries, hypertension screening, pharmacological treatment of hypertension and hypercholesterinaemia, access to health care)
Developing countries: increasing tendencies
- increasing longevity, urbanization, and western type lifestyle

16. Analytic Epidemiology II. Classification of Risk Factors

18. Estimated 10-Year CHD Risk in
55-Year-Old Adults According to Levels of Various Risk Factors Framingham Heart Study
A B C D
Blood Pressure (mm Hg) 120/80 140/90 140/90 140/90
Total Cholesterol (mg/dL)
HDL Cholesterol (mg/dL)
Diabetes No No Yes Yes
Cigarettes No No No Yes
mm Hg = millimeters of mercury
mg/dL = milligrams per deciliter of blood
Source: Circulation 1998;97:

19. Estimated 10-Year Stroke Risk in 55-Year-Old Adults According to Levels of Various Risk Factors Framingham Heart Study
A B C D E F
Systolic BP*
Diabetes No No Yes Yes Yes Yes
Cigarettes No No No Yes Yes Yes
Prior Atrial Fib. No No No No Yes Yes
Prior CVD No No No No No Yes
*BP in millimeters of mercury (mmHg)
Source: Stroke 1991;22:

20. A B C D E F
Systolic BP*
Diabetes No No Yes Yes Yes Yes
Cigarettes No No No Yes Yes Yes
Prior Atrial Fib. No No No No Yes Yes
Prior CVD No No No No No Yes
*BP in millimeters of mercury (mmHg)
Estimated 10-year stroke risk in 55-year-old adults according to levels of various risk factors (FHS). Source: Wolf et al., Stroke.1991;22:

21. Offspring CVD Risk by Parental CVD Status: Framingham Study
Parental CVD <55 men, <65 Women
Risk Ratio
2.2
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.0
1.0
Adjusted for: age, total/HDL Chol. ratio, SBP, smoking, diabetes, BMI

22. Risk of Coronary Heart Disease by Serum Cholesterol
30-Year Follow-up, The Framingham Study
Age-Adjusted Annual Rate per 1000
Serum Cholesterol
Age: 35-64*
Age: 65-94
Men
Women
Men+
Women*
84-204 8 4 22 11 13 5 24 15 14 26 17 7 23 10 38 32
*Trends Significant at P P.07.

23. Correlation Between Serum Cholesterol and CVD Mortality
Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial (MRFIT) N=325,346 30
Untreated Patients 25
55-57 years 20
50-54 years
6-Year CVD Death Rate Per 1000 15
45-49 years 10
40-44 years
35-39 years 5 Q1
(<182) Q2
( ) Q3
( ) Q4
( ) Q5
(>244)
Serum Cholesterol Quintile (mg/dL)
Q = serum cholesterol quintile. Kannel WB et al. Am Heart J. 1986;112:

24. Lifetime Risk of CHD Increases with Serum Cholesterol
_______________________________________________________________________________
Lifetime Risk of CHD Increases with Serum Cholesterol
___________________________________________________________________________
Cholesterol 57 44 33 34 29 19
Framingham Study: Subjects age 40 years
DM Lloyd-Jones et al Arch Intern Med 2003;

25. Age-adjusted prevalence of Adults age 20 and older with LDL cholesterol of 130 mg/dL or higher, by race/ethnicity and sex (NHANES: ). Source: NCHS and NHLBI. NH – non-Hispanic.

26. Age-adjusted prevalence of Adults age 20 and older with HDL cholesterol <40 mg/dL, by race/ethnicity and sex (NHANES: ) Source: NCHS and NHLBI. NH – non-Hispanic.

27. Trends in mean total serum cholesterol among adults age 20 and older, by race/ethnicity, sex and survey (NHANES : , and ). Source: NCHS and NHLBI. NH – non-Hispanic.

28. Trends in mean total blood cholesterol among adolescents ages by race, sex, and survey (NHES: ; NHANES: and ). Source: NCHS and NHLBI.

29. Prevalence of high blood pressure in Adults by age and sex (NHANES: ). Source: NCHS and NHLBI.

30. CHD Risk by Cigarette Smoking. Filter Vs. Non-filter. Framingham Study
CHD Risk by Cigarette Smoking. Filter Vs. Non-filter. Framingham Study. Men <55 Yrs.
14-yr. Rate/1000
210
206
210
119
112 59

31. Risk Factor Sum and Obesity
Framingham Study
( ) and ( ) 3
2.4
(1971)
(1989)
Risk factors accumulate with weight gain
1.8
Risk Factor Sum
1.2
Wilson PWF, & Kannel WB Nutr Clin Care 1999; 1:44-50
0.6
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Overall
Thin
Obese
Risk variables include bottom quintile for HDL-C and top quintiles for cholesterol, SBP, triglycerides and glucose

32. Trends in prevalence of overweight among U. S
Trends in prevalence of overweight among U.S. children and adolescents by age and survey (NHANES, , , and ). Source: Health, United States, 2006, unpublished data. NCHS.

33. Analytic Epidemiology II. Classification of Risk Factors
- Systolic blood pressure >140 Hgmm and/or a diastolic blood pressure > 90 Hgmm
- Free of clinical symptoms for many years (screening)
- In most countries, up to 30 percent of adults suffering, increasing with age in civilized countries
- Positive family history
- Dietary habits (a high intake of salt, processed food, low levels of water hardness, high thyramine content of food, alcohol use)
- Modern lifestyle (increased sympathetic activity, psychosocial stress, leading position in job)

34. Analytic Epidemiology IV. Rheumatic Fever and Rheumatic Heart Disease
Development: Rheumatic fever usually follows an untreated beta-haemolytic streptococcal throat infection in children
As a consequence, the heart valves are permanently damaged which may progress to heart failure
Today mostly affects children in developing countries, linked to poverty, inadequacy of health care access
Occurrence: 12 million people currently affected by rheumatic fever and RHD, two-thirds are children (5-15 years), for example: approx in Sub-Saharan Africa, in South-Central Asia, in China, in North Africa, in Eastern Europe (!)

35. Analytic Epidemiology V. Abnormal Blood Lipids
- Se cholesterol: structure and functioning of blood vessels, atherosclerotic plaques
- Altering functions of cholesterol fractions (LDL: risk, HDL: protection)
- Estrogen: tends to raise HDL-cholesterol and lower LDL-cholesterol, protection for women in reproductive age
- Partially genetic determination of metabolism, partially dependent of nutrition (egg, meats, dairy products)

36. Analytic Epidemiology VI. Tobacco Use
- The link between smoking and CVD (mainly CHD) was identified in 1940
- Passive smoking: additional risk
- Women smokers: are at higher risk of CHD and CVD than male smokers
- Several mechanisms: damages the endothelium lining, increases atherosclerotic plaques, raises LDL and lowers HDL, promotes artery spasms, raises oxigen demand of the heart muscle
- Nicotine accelerates the heart rate (HR), and raises blood pressure

37. Analytic Epidemiology VII. Physical Inactivity
- Regular physical activity: protective factor
- Intensity and duration (150 minutes/week intermediate or 60 minutes/week heavy)
- Modernization, urbanization, mechanized transport: sedentary lifestyle (60% of global population)
- Raises CVD risk and also the development of other risk factors (glucose metabolism, diabetes mellitus, blood coagulation, obesity, high blood pressure, worsening lipid profile)
- Physical activity: helps reduce stress, anxiety and depression

38. Analytic Epidemiology VIII. Obesity, Diabetes Mellitus, Unhealthy Diet
- Body Mass Index: > 25: overweight, > 30: obesity
- A modern ”epidemic”: More than 60% of adults in the US are overweight or obese, in China: 70 million overweight people
- Elevates the risk of both CVD and diabetes mellitus
- Diabetes mellitus: damages both peripheral and coronary blood vessels
-Unhealthy diet: low fruit and vegetable, fiber content, and high saturated fat intake, refined sugar

39. Analytic Epidemiology IX. Psychological and social factors
- Psychological factors (Type A behavior, hostility)
- Depression and CVD: bidirectional link
a., depression may increase the risk of CVD and worsen recovery process
b., CVD may induce depression
- Low socioeconomic status (SES):
a., in developed countries: less educated and lower SES groups (accumulation of risk factors)
b., in developing countries: more educated and higher SES groups (western lifestyle)

40. FIGURE 1-1 Changing pattern of mortality, 1990 to 2001.
CMPN = communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional diseases
CVD = cardiovascular disease
INJ = injury
ONC = other noncommunicable diseases.
(From Mathers CD, Lopez A, Stein D, et al: Deaths and disease burden by cause: Global burden of disease estimates for 2001 by World Bank Country Groups, Disease Control Priorities Working Paper 18 [