1. Evolution of M&E from TDA/SAP to Current Country Strategies: A Science and Policy Perspective Laurence Mee

2. The challenge is how to determine whether or not our actions will bring about sustainable improvements in the state of the environment … and how cost-effective they are.

3. Contents of this talk Delivering the ecosystem approach: adaptive management and the TDA/SAP process Scientific challenges and uncertainties for nutrient reduction From outputs to outcomes, how do we measure success?

4. 1. Delivering the ecosystem approach: adaptive management and the TDA/SAP process

5. The ecosystem approach (a.k.a. Ecosystem Based Management) The comprehensive integrated management of human activities based on best available scientific knowledge about the ecosystem and its dynamics, in order to take action on influences which are critical to the health of marine ecosystems, thereby achieving sustainable use of ecosystem goods and services and maintenance of ecosystem integrity [EU-Marine Strategy, 2005]

6. Key social and ecological system properties Boundaries (defined in space and time – may be variable) Complexity, non-linearity and uncertainty Resilience (the amount of change that a system can undergo and still retain the same controls on function and structure, its capability for self organisation and its capacity for learning and adaptation) Discontinuities and thresholds Interconnectedness

7. Adaptive Management Eco/WR QOs (Typically valid for 1 decade)

8. A Systems Approach

9. The Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis (TDA) Is recommended for most OP8 and OP9 projects Is a scientific and technical fact-finding analysis It should be an objective assessment and not a negotiated document It acts as a diagnostic tool for measuring the effectiveness of SAP implementation

10. Strategic Action Programme (SAP) A SAP is a negotiated policy document It establishes clear priorities for action to resolve the priority transboundary waters problems It identifies policy, legal and institutional reforms and investments needed to address the priority transboundary waters problems The preparation of a SAP is a cooperative process among key stakeholders in the countries of the region.

11. How long to achieve environmental outcomes?

12. 2. Scientific challenges and uncertainties for nutrient reduction

13. Nutrients are transferred by complex processes Nitrogen pathways, Wade et al., 2002

14. Forsman et al., 2003 Runoff depends on multiple factors including: Fixed: Morphology Soil type Aquifer hydrology River length and flow Variable: (unmanageable) Rainfall Variable (manageable) Fertiliser application rate Crop (and/or grazing) type Farm management Waste disposal River and wetland alterations Non-agricultural sources Urbanisation

15. Garnier et al., 2002 e.g. RIVER STRAHLER, Billen & Garnier, 2000 Several alternative models for nutrient transfer

16. Processes and nutrient budgets on the Black Sea shelf

17. Strength and diversity of trophic linkages related to ‘value’ and ‘status

18. Consequences to the Black Sea

19. Application of indicators: Eutrophication System indicators Benthic mass mortality Pelagic/demersal fish catch Benthic hypoxia Trophic Transfer efficiency Fodder/non-fodder zooplankton Diatoms/non-diatoms Chlorophyll (satellite) Ratio of new/regenerated nutrients Winter nutrient stock Land-based discharge loads Complexity * *** **** *** **** ** ***** **** *** Trophic effects Pressures Major change Specificity ***** *** ***** ** **** *** ***** **** **

20. Our ability to measure success depends on being able to measure change Pristine (P) and Contemporary (C) Phosphate levels Eelgrass Zoobenthos Source: ELME 2005

21. Huge uncertainties in historical nutrient data in the Danube- Black Sea

22. 3. From outputs to outcomes, how do we measure success?

23. Outcomes of economic collapse in the Danube - Black Sea

24. 19792002 Shading of Zernov’s Phyllophora field

25. Decreasing mussel mortality = recovery Data from Shurova (unpublished)

26. Areas where change influencing eutrophication will be expected ChangeInfluenceDepends on… 1. Diffuse nutrient supply Particularly on the supply of nitrogen (but also phosphorus) Agricultural development pattern. Implementation of the CFP. Biofuels 2. Point sources of nutrients Supply of phosphorus (also nitrogen) Sewerage and waste water treatment. Intensive livestock 3. Fishing pressureTrophic cascading. Overfishing will not allow system recovery Development of effective fisheries convention and marine protected areas 1. & 2. Nutrient ratios Blooms of undesirable species Sensible balance between policies

27. Specific targets for eutrophication Long term objective (EcoQO) “to take measures to reduce the loads of nutrients and hazardous substances discharged to such levels necessary to permit Black Sea ecosystems to recover to conditions similar to those observed in the 1960s” First operational target “urgent measures should be taken in the wider Black Sea Basin in order to avoid that the loads of nutrients and hazardous substances discharged into the Seas exceed those that existed in the mid 1990s (these discharges are only incompletely known)” Memorandum of Understanding between the International Commission for the Protection of the Black Sea (ICPBS) and the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) on common strategic goals. Signed in Brussels, 26 November 2001.

28. Environmental Quality as a concept reflects human values Target values related to freshwater quality that meets with the definition under class I (sustaining the ecological function) of UN/ECE

29. Peoples values matter… Source of data: World Survey of Values, 2006

30. The Achilles Heel of Adaptive Management Eco/WR QOs (Typically valid for 1 decade)

31. How do we know when we reach institutional sustainability?

32. Two tests for project success 1. The regular and fully transparent provision of relevant, quality assured, monitoring data Data gap Commitment gap Institutional sustainability

33. Reasons given for not implementing monitoring Legitimate (GEF can help with foundational support) Lack of planning and networking Insufficient training Inadequate capital equipment Non-legitimate Institutional fragmentation Information = Power (?) Long term commitment to monitoring is politically unattractive Disputed data property rights Culture of secrecy

34. Test 2. How much reduction of nutrients can be achieved per unit cost? Complex issue requiring trade-offs and genuine international cooperation. Best practice solutions may not be replicable from country to country. Achieving sustainability is not the same as dividing investment financing equally between countries