1. Comprehensive Plan Update Planning and Land Development Regulation Board (PLDRB) Public Hearing February 24, 2010

2. Proposed Update is a technical exercise to update the planning horizon and population projections Update is to assist City with impacts of large scale development being proposed Proposed developments have impacts beyond current planning horizon (2020) Planning Horizon update will keep minimum 10 year long- range planning horizon Comprehensive Plan Update

3. Update at this time allows coordination with FDOT and SJRWMD as they update their long-range plans Update will not change the vision and building blocks of the comprehensive plan EAR Process will include analysis of specific issues and involve discussion of the vision, building blocks, and policy changes in the comprehensive plan Comprehensive Plan Update

4. Update of Planning Horizon & City Boundaries Update from 2020 to 2035 Update using the best available data Update affected policies Requirements of House Bill 697 (Energy-Efficiency and Greenhouse Gas Reduction) Creation of Northwest Corridor Overlay Area (NCOA)

5. Comprehensive Plan Update Data Used Population Projections – Bureau of Economic And Business Research (BEBR) Population Projections to 2035 (Medium Series Projections) * Note that DCA has advised that High Series Projections will not be accepted Historic City growth as a share of County growth. Housing Data – Shimberg Center, American Community Survey (U.S. Census Bureau) Data from various City departments: Utility, Stormwater, Recreation & Parks, Community Development Data from state agencies: SJRWMD, FDOT, Fish & Wildlife Conservation Commission, etc. Data from local agencies: Sherriff’s Office, School District, municipalities

6. Comprehensive Plan Update BEBR 2035 Medium Series Projections (County Population Projection) BEBR is conservative in terms of long-term planning horizons. BEBR historically has undercounted growth in Flagler County. City Population Projection (Share of County Population Growth)- Factors to Consider Historic trends of City capture of County Population Sufficiency of land use allocation and infrastructure Continuation of trend is consistent with vision and policy direction of Comprehensive Plan.

7. Comprehensive Plan Update Historic Trend Analysis BEBR Estimated City Share of Growth Year 2000 Population Year 2008 Population (BEBR) Difference City of Palm Coast 32,73273,91041,178 Flagler County49,38294,91045,069 Percentage Share of Growth91.4%

8. Comprehensive Plan Update Historic Trend Analysis Census Estimated City Share of Growth Year 2000 Population Year 2008 Population (Census) Difference City of Palm Coast 32,73272,31639,584 Flagler County49,38291,24741,415 Percentage Share of Growth95.6%

9. Comprehensive Plan Update Historic Trend Analysis Cumulative Share of Countywide Population City’s share has historically increased since 2000 Census Estimate DateFlagler County Countywide Population Palm Coast PopulationPalm Coast Cumulative Share of Countywide Population Apr-00498323273265.68% Apr-01530613544366.80% Apr-02567853834867.53% Apr-03615414285069.63% Apr-04696835048472.45% Apr-05786175821674.05% Apr-06890756783276.15% Apr-07935687037675.21% Apr-08955127459078.09% Apr-09949017391077.88% Average Annual Increase in Share1.36%

10. Comprehensive Plan Update Population Projections Various Techniques used to project future city share. Linear Regression of City share percentages BEBR Shift-share method (increase based on average annual increase during base period – 1.36%) BEBR Share of Growth (City’s share of growth based on share of growth during base period – 91.4%) Logistic regression (share is capped at a future level and equation adjusts growth rate in share to conform to cap) All methods project City’s share to increase over time.

11. Comprehensive Plan Update FINDINGS—POPULATION PROJECTION Using the most conservative projection, BEBR Share of Growth, City’s population share will be 85% in 2035. Other projections used indicate it occurring much sooner ExtrapolationTarget YearPalm Coast Share of Countywide Growth Linear Regression201385.15% BEBR Shift Share201586.0% BEBR Share of Growth2015 2035 80.3% 84.9% Logistic2015 2035 82.9% 85% (capped)

12. Comprehensive Plan Update FINDINGS—POPULATION PROJECTION 2035 Population is 168,112 2035 County Population is 198,000 City share of Population is 84.9% 20152035202520302035 Flagler County115,600137,500158,700178,900198,000 Palm Coast92,822112,831132,201150,657168,112 Cumulative Share of Countywide Population 80.3%82.1%83.3%84.2%84.9%

13. Comprehensive Plan Update POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS (Since 2000) Average Household Size has remained virtually unchanged (-.02 to 2.36 persons per household) State Household Size has increased slightly +.05 to 2.51 Median Age has decreased by 10 years to median age of 41 Age Cohorts as percentage of population 20-35 (+10% to 21%) 35-65 (-3% to 35%) 65-85 (-10% to 22%)

14. Comprehensive Plan Update EMPLOYMENT AND INCOME Labor force has increased as share of population (+10% to 55.6%) Median Household Income increased by 12.2% to $46,646, however, state has increased by 25.2% to $48,637

15. Comprehensive Plan Update RESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEEDS Factors affecting land use needs: Underestimate of population through 2035 Extent vacant lands develop below maximum allowable densities due to market conditions, regulatory constraints, infrastructure limitations Extent to which landowners do not pursue development of their lands during planning timeframe Extent platted lots are passed over due to changing demographics and market preferences

16. Comprehensive Plan Update RESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEEDS - DEMAND Variables in projection: Population Projections Persons per household (2.38 from Census) Vacancy Rate  ACS does not indicate whether vacancy has increased from recession or increase in secondary home use.  Analysis will use historic vacancy rate of 12% (In 2000 City vacancy rate was 9%, in 2008 - 16%)

17. 2035 Projected Population168,112 2009-2035 Net Projected Population Growth 168,112 – 73,910 = 94,202 2009-2035 Net Projected Households 94,202/2.38 = 39,581 households 2009-2035 Net Projected Dwelling Units 39,581/.88 = 45,495 Projected Need for Dwelling Units Comprehensive Plan Update

18. RESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEEDS - SUPPLY Comprehensive Plan Update

19. RESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEEDS – ADJUSTMENTS DCA recommends a multiplier of 1.25 Multiplier is amount of land use allocation over projected demand in order to respond to supply factors (building less than maximum density, delays in development, etc.) Comprehensive Plan Update

20. RESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEEDS – MULTIPLIER SupplyDemandMultiplier (Supply/Demand) 54,254 units45,495 units1.19 56,869 units (+2,615) from projected 2035 supply 45,495 units1.25 Conclusion: There is adequate acreage to accommodate projected population. There is ability to accommodate additional allocation for residential growth. Comprehensive Plan Update

21. NON-RESIDENTIAL LAND USE-SUPPLY Comprehensive Plan Update

22. NON-RESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEEDS-EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY (DEMAND) Comprehensive Plan Update

23. Summary discussion of updated data. Update DRI name from West Palm Coast Park DRI to Palm Coast Park DRI. Clarification of Density/Intensity limits in DRI land use category. Update zoning district table under Policy 1.1.1.1 Update to new zoning districts Update limitations on densities/intensities to reflect historical trends. Comprehensive Plan Update Update of the Future Land Use Element - Summary

24. Amend policies to reflect completion of land development code. Amend reference from Planned Unit Development (PUD) to Master Planned Development (MPD) Adopt policy to maintain 5-Year and Long Range Planning Periods Delete references to Palm Coast Community Service Corporation (PCCSC) Amend policy to coordinate on a countywide strategic economic development plan. Comprehensive Plan Update Update of the Future Land Use Element - Summary

25. Use Florida Standard Urban Transportation Model Structure (FSUTMS) Standard model used throughout the State of Florida 2035 Roadway Network Variables used in transportation modeling Population Projections Employment Projections Existing Roadway Network Results of model indicate failing segments on roadway network Comprehensive Plan Update Update of the Transportation Element - Summary

26. Proposed Text Amendments: Reflect adoption of the Land Development Code, progress in implementing transportation projects Policies to address energy-efficiency and greenhouse gas reduction Findings of 2035 transportation model Comprehensive Plan Update Update of the Transportation Element - Summary

27. Comprehensive Plan Update Update of the Transportation Element - Summary

28. Historic Trend Analysis-Existing Housing 2000 Census2006-2008 ACS Housing Stock90% Single-family88% Single-family Age of HousingNearly all are less than 30 years old (built after 1970) Nearly all less than 35 years old, 50% are less than 10 years old (built after 2000) TenureOwner-Occupancy – 85% of residents Owner Occupancy – 75% of residents Comprehensive Plan Update Update of the Housing Element - Summary

29. Historic Trend Analysis-Existing Housing 2000 Census2006-2008 ACS Affordability40% of renters spend at least 30% of income on housing 65% of renters spend at least 30% of income on housing Median Value$150,000$230,300 Median Rent$814$1,074 Comprehensive Plan Update

30. Historic Trend – Percentage of Households by Income Group Percentage of Households by Income Group Source: Shimberg Center for Housing Data Comprehensive Plan Update

31. Table 3.20a - Total Housing Needed by Number and Type *Housing units assume a split of 85% Single-Family Units and 15% Multi-family Units. This split is consistent with 2008 Shimberg Center data which indicates an 88% single-family and 12% multi-family unit split. Dwelling unit figures are from 2006-2008 ACS update. Source: Shimberg Center for Housing Studies Comprehensive Plan Update

32. Table 3.25a- Housing Construction Needs (Shimberg Center) Comprehensive Plan Update

33. Type2009-2015Annual2015- 2020 Annual2020- 2025 Annual2025- 2030 Annual2030- 2035 Annual Population Growth18,9113,15220,0094,00219,3713,87418,4573,69117,4553,491 New Household Formations (2.38 persons/household)7,9461,3248,4071,6818,1391,6287,7551,5517,3341,467 Single-Family Units (80%)6,3571,0596,7261,3456,5111,3026,2041,2415,8671,173 Multi-Family Units (20%)1,5892121,6813361,6283261,5513101,467293 Total # of Units With Vacancy Rate of 12%9,0301,5059,5531,9119,2491,8508,8131,7638,3341,667 Housing Construction Needs (BEBR Projections) Comprehensive Plan Update

34. Summary discussion of updated data. Add term “extremely low” as a household category Add reference to joint County-City housing program Add reference to new housing programs such as Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP). Objective and Policy related to energy-efficient homes Renumber various objectives and policies Make policies more inclusive of other housing programs Comprehensive Plan Update Update of the Housing Element - Summary

35. Allocation of Recreation and Open Space Area Comprehensive Plan Update Update of the Recreation & Open Space Element - Summary

36. *Note: Negative Numbers indicate surplus RECREATION & OPEN SPACE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS Comprehensive Plan Update

37. Summary discussion of updated data Change Table 4.1 Inventory of Parks Update Policy 4.2.2.1 to reflect completion of various projects Delete outdated references Comprehensive Plan Update Update of the Recreation & Open Space Element - Summary

38. Update of the Infrastructure Element - Summary Comprehensive Plan Update Overall Changes Projected demand on public facilities in 2035, Recognition that the City is the provider of water and sewer services, Recognition that maintenance of stormwater facilities is under jurisdiction of the City Updated Water Supply Facilities Work Plan Reflect adoption of the LDC

39. Chapter 5 - Infrastructure Overall Changes Projected demand on public facilities in 2035, Recognition that the City is the provider of water and sewer services, Recognition that maintenance of stormwater facilities is under jurisdiction of the City Updated Water Supply Facilities Work Plan

40. Chapter 5 – Infrastructure Potable Water Meeting the Needs through 2035 Consumptive Use Permit Modification Water Treatment Plant #3 Long-Term Coquina Coast Desalination Project Updated in 2008 for Adoption of Water Supply Facilities Work Plan Policy Changes to Reflect Adoption of LDC Policy Changes to Rename Xeriscape Policy Changes to Reflect Coquina Coast Project

41. Chapter 5 – Infrastructure Water Supply Facilities Work Plan Updated Population Projection and Water Demand Projections Updated Project Lists Consistent with Adopted Capital Improvements Element Reuse and Conservation Practices Remain Long-Term Focus Continues to be Development of Desalination Alternative Water Supply Source (Coquina Coast)

42. Chapter 5 – Infrastructure Sanitary Sewer Meeting the Needs through 2035 Wastewater Treatment Plant #2 Policy Changes to Reflect Updated Information Policy Changes to Reflect Acquisition of Utility Policy Changes to Reflect Adoption of LDC

43. Chapter 5 – Infrastructure Stormwater Management Meeting the Needs through 2035 Continued Ongoing Maintenance Policy Changes to Reflect Palm Coast Community Service Corporation Unification Policy Changes to Extend Timeframe for Stormwater Master Plan Completion

44. Chapter 5 – Infrastructure Aquifer Recharge Protection Policy Changes to Rename Intermediate Aquifer to Confined Surficial Aquifer Policy Changes to Reflect Coquina Coast Project Policy Changes to Reflect Adoption of LDC

45. Chapter 5 – Infrastructure Solid Waste Meeting the Needs through 2035 Contract with Volusia County through 2026 Policy to Evaluate Options by 2016 Policy Changes to Reflect Requirement of Waste Haulers to Offer Recycling Policy Changes to Reflect Waste Pro, Inc. as Residential Waste Hauler Policy Changes to Reflect Adoption of LDC

46. Comprehensive Plan Update Amend Policies to reflect: Purchase of Florida Water Service Palm Coast Community Service Corporation (PCCSC) dissolved and assets transferred to the City of Palm Coast Adoption of Land Development Code (LDC) Reclassification of certain listed species Update references to different agencies Update from results of different studies Recreation and Parks Facilities Master Plan Wetland Mitigation Bank Feasibility Study Energy Conservation Element Map is being developed as part of comprehensive evaluation of HB 697 City’s “Green” Programs Conservation & Coastal Management Update of the Conservation & Coastal Management Element - Summary

47. Updates resulting from LDC Thirty-two (32) Policies updated to reflect consistency with the Unified Land Development Code (LDC). Of these Policies, one (1) removed Policy 6.1.11.4: Addresses LDC standards for Index Tree List, replacement and quantity requirements. Data & Analysis reflects satisfaction of the Policy by Tree Replacement Standards (Section 11.02.06, LDC).

48. Updates resulting from LDC Additional Examples: Listed Species Protection and Application Study – LDC requires “all applications for preliminary plats or site plans shall include a listed species study.” (10.04.03.A). Marina regulations – Section 4.16, LDC. Wellfield Protection Standards – Section 10.03, LDC and Water Conservation Policy Ordinance 2009-15.

49. Soil resources inventoried and Findings amended Listed Species reclassified Bald Eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) Gopher Tortoise (Gopherus Polyphemus) Agency references updated to reflect following Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) Fish and Wildlife Research Institute (FWRI) Northeast Florida Regional Council (NEFRC) “Firewise” communities increase; Findings amended Update in data & analysis

50. Updates resulting from projects Recreation and Parks Facilities Master Plan Inventoried facilities including boat launching facilities and other water- based opportunities Wetland Mitigation Bank Feasibility Study To provide regulatory guidance and GIS resources for effective planning and evaluation of wetland mitigation needs and opportunities for the City of Palm Coast City-maintained wetland layer utilized for study findings NEFRC continues to update Statewide Evacuation Study

51. Updates resulting SB 697 Chapter 163.3177(6)(d), F.S. amended to incorporate environmental resources “including factors that affect energy conservation.” Developed Policies and Objectives to target energy demand reduction of public facilities and services. Green Resolution 2008-75 (Leading by Example) Green Development Incentive Ordinance 2009-22 Energy Conservation Element Map is being developed as part of comprehensive evaluation of SB 697.

52. Add Intergovernmental Agreements since 2004 Joint Water Supply Settlement Agreement Joint County-City Housing Program Coquina Coast Desalination Plant Study Interlocal Agreement for School Facility Planning Delete references to Palm Coast Community Service Corporation (PCCSC), Florida Water Service (FWS) Amend reference from Dayton Beach Community College to Daytona State College Amend reference from NEFRPC to NEFRC Comprehensive Plan Update Update of the Intergovernmental Coordination Element - Summary

53. Add Intergovernmental Agreements since 2004 Joint Water Supply Settlement Agreement Joint County-City Housing Program Coquina Coast Desalination Plant Study Interlocal Agreement for School Facility Planning INTERGOVERNMENTAL COORDINATION ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS Comprehensive Plan Update

54. Delete references to Palm Coast Community Service Corporation (PCCSC), Florida Water Service (FWS) Amend reference from Dayton Beach Community College to Daytona State College Amend reference from NEFRPC to NEFRC INTERGOVERNMENTAL COORDINATION ELEMENT – GOALS, OBJECTIVES, & POLICIES Comprehensive Plan Update

55. Update of the Capital Improvements Element - Summary Policy Changes to Reflect Adoption of LDC Policy Changes to Reflect Palm Coast Community Service Corporation Unification Policy Changes to Reflect Completion of Palm Coast Parkway PD&E Policy Changes to Reflect State Statutes for SIS Level-of- Service Requirements

56. Comprehensive Plan Update Update of the Public School Facilities Element - Summary Element Adopted in 2008 No Goal, Objective, or Policy Changes Data and Analysis Addendum Include COFTE Projections through 2020 Extend Projections through 2035 Include Latest School District Work Plan

57. Comprehensive Plan Update Update of the Comprehensive Plan Map Series - Summary Reflect updated data from original source Reflect update of planning horizon to 2035 (2035 transportation network maps) Reflect new city boundaries