1. Continuous Productivity Assessment and Effort Prediction Based on Bayesian Analysis Seok Jun Yun and Dick B. Simmons Texas A&M University College Station, TX 77843-3112 Email: {sjy3806, simmons}@cs.tamu.edu

2. Overview PAMPA 2 Knowledge Base (KB) Productivity Productivity Attributes Gather Attributes from CASE Tools Compute Productivity Use Bayesian approach to adjust Productivity Prediction Use Expert System to advise Manager

3. Pampa II Knowledge Base Dick B. Simmons Texas A&M University College Station, TX 77843-3112

4. Organization Project ProjectList Supplier SoftwareProduct * 1 ProjectVersion * 1 1.. * * * Plan Customer * SLCModelList SLCModel * 1 View [Productivity, Organization, Process, Project Dominator, Plan and WBS Gannt, Plann and WBS Activity Network,Feature Status, Project Design, Testing, Documentation]

5. Plan Process Activity * * * InitialMilestone FinalMilestone Criteria * * * * Risk

6. Supplier COTSRunFile ReusableSourceFile * *

7. Organization Salary Individual * * * 1.. * member {subset} 1.. * Process Activity * * InitialMilestone FinalMilestone * WorkBreakdownStructure Criteria * * * * Risk 1 manager

8. Feature SoftwareProduct Version VAndVTestUsabilityTestSubsystem Artifact Usability Chunk Volume Defect * * * * * * * * * * * * Structure Rework Problem Change * *

9. Customer

10. Organization Project ProjectList Salary Supplier Feature SoftwareProduct COTSRunFile ReusableSourceFile Version VAndVTestUsabilityTestSubsystem Artifact Usability authors runs Chunk Individual Volume is located in Defect is related to * 1 ProjectVersion * 1 owns * * * * * * 1.. * * 1.. * member1 manager {subset} * * * * * * * * * * * * ** * ** * * 1.. * Plan Customer * Structure Process Activity * * * InitialMilestone FinalMilestone * WorkBreakdownStructure Rework Criteria * * * * * authors * ** * * * SLCModelList SLCModel * Risk 1 Problem Change * * View [Productivity, Organization, Process, Project Dominator, Plan and WBS Gannt, Plann and WBS Activity Network,Feature Status, Project Design, Testing, Documentation]

11. Productivity

12. Software Productivity Model Before 2000 Customer and Corporate Needs Complexity of Problem Constraints of Environment VALUE QualityQuantityReusability Defects Size Lines of Source FunctionsObject Points Difficulty COST PeopleCalendar Time (Opportunity) Capital Engineering Months

13. Software Productivity Model After 2000 Customer and Corporate Needs Complexity of Problem Constraints of Environment VALUE QualityQuantityReusability Defects Size Lines of Source Functions Difficulty COST PeopleCalendar Time (Opportunity) Capital $’s HLCs (High Level Chunks) Object Points

14. Estimate uncertainty

15. Object Points Function Points Source lines of Code HLCs

16. Productivity Attributes

17. Productivity Prediction where a is the units of Volume, m is the number of the Volume estimating model, and n is the number of the effort estimating model. Productivity m,n is expression in a per person month. For example if a = KNCSS, then the units of productivity would be KNCSS per person month. Productivity m,n = Volume a,m Effort n

18. Productivity Prediction where a is the units of Volume, m is the number of the Volume estimating model, and n is the number of the effort estimating model. Salary is expressed $’s per month $Productivity m,n is expression in a per $. For example if a = KNCSS, then the units of productivity would be KNCSS per person month. $Productivity m,n = Volume a,m Effort n x Salary

19. Gather Attributes from CASE Tools

20. Organization Project ProjectList Salary Supplier Feature SoftwareProduct COTSRunFile ReusableSourceFile Version VAndVTestUsabilityTestSubsystem Artifact Usability authors runs Chunk Individual Volume is located in Defect is related to * 1 ProjectVersion * 1 owns * * * * * * 1.. * * 1.. * member1 manager {subset} * * * * * * * * * * * * ** * ** * * 1.. * Plan Customer * Structure Process Activity * * * InitialMilestone FinalMilestone * WorkBreakdownStructure Rework Criteria * * * * * authors * ** * * * SLCModelList SLCModel * Risk 1 Problem Change * * CASE TOOLS JESS Metric Center Rational ClearCase Rational ClearQuest Rational Test Studio CostXpert Crystal Report Writer MS SQL Server Rational RequisitePro SLIM SoDA MS Project Rational Rose DBMS Attribute Gatherer Design Tool View [Productivity, Organization, Process, Project Dominator, Plan and WBS Gannt, Plann and WBS Activity Network,Feature Status, Project Design, Testing, Documentation]

21. Compute Productivity

22. Organization Project ProjectList Salary Supplier Feature SoftwareProduct COTSRunFile ReusableSourceFile Version VAndVTestUsabilityTestSubsystem Artifact Usability authors runs Chunk Individual Volume is located in Defect is related to * 1 ProjectVersion * 1 owns * * * * * * 1.. * * 1.. * member1 manager {subset} * * * * * * * * * * * * ** * ** * * 1.. * Plan Customer * Structure Process Activity * * * InitialMilestone FinalMilestone * WorkBreakdownStructure Rework Criteria * * * * * authors * ** * * * SLCModelList SLCModel * Risk 1 Problem Change * * View [Productivity, Organization, Process, Project Dominator, Plan and WBS Gannt, Plann and WBS Activity Network,Feature Status, Project Design, Testing, Documentation] Effort Salary Volume

23. Use Bayesian approach to adjust Productivity Prediction Equation

24. Use Expert System to Advise Manager

25. Organization Project ProjectList Salary Supplier Feature SoftwareProduct COTSRunFile ReusableSourceFile Version VAndVTestUsabilityTestSubsystem Artifact Usability authors runs Chunk Individual Volume is located in Defect is related to * 1 ProjectVersion * 1 owns * * * * * * 1.. * * 1.. * member1 manager {subset} * * * * * * * * * * * * ** * ** * * 1.. * Plan Customer * Structure Process Activity * * * InitialMilestone FinalMilestone * WorkBreakdownStructure Rework Criteria * * * * * authors * ** * * * SLCModelList SLCModel * Risk 1 Problem Change * * View [Productivity, Organization, Process, Project Dominator, Plan and WBS Gannt, Plann and WBS Activity Network,Feature Status, Project Design, Testing, Documentation] Facts

26. Inference Engine Knowledge Elicitation from Manager Rules and Facts Generator Milestone & Risk Criteria (Rules and Initial Facts) Facts Action Response Data Collection Subsystem Plan Tracking Intelligent Agent

27. Summary Continuous productivity measurement Continuous productivity model calibration Expert Advisor Optimize cost across a geographically distributed labor force