1. European Territorial Scenarios and VISION for 2050 Andreu Ulied, MCRIT Lead Partner ET2050 ESPON MC Meeting, Krakow, December 1, 2011

2. From Project Specifications: The ESPON Monitoring Committee, DG Regio and the ESPON Coordination Unit wish to start a territorial vision-building process that involves relevant stakeholders at European, national and regional level, having 2050 as time horizon

4. Europe 2030 Reflexion Group “The challenges we face today are different to those of the past and call for different responses. Whether we look at relative demographic and economic decline, climate change or energy shortages the challenges can only be properly understood and tackled when situated in a regional and global context… …the choice for the EU is clear: reform or decline”.

5. ET2050 Consortium: 13 institutions from 10 EU countries ET2050 Objective : Supporting policy-makers defining the VISION ET2050 Methodology : Scientific and Politically driven ET2050 Work plan: Five Steps towards the VISION ET2050 End goal : The VISION 2050 Introducing ET2050…

6. ET2050 Consortium

8. MCRIT, LP Andreu Ulied Oriol Biosca Rafael Rodrigo TERSYN Jacques Robert IGEAT Moritz Lennert Valérie Biot Jean-Michel Decroly GEPHYRES / IGEAT Phillipe Doucet RKK Ivan Illes Katalin Süle S&W Michael Wegener Klaus Speakermann POLIMI Roberto Camagni Roberta Capello Ugo Fratesi IOM Marek Kupiszewski Dorota Kupiszewska RIKS Jaspers de Vliet Hedwig van Delden Nordregio Alexandre Dubois University of Thessaly (UTH) Harry Coccosis WSE Jacek Szlachta ISIS Carlo Sessa ERSILIA Jaume Jorba ESPON CU Sara Ferrara Marjan van Herwijnen Sounding Board Patrick Salez Karl Peter Schon

9. ET2050 Objective Supporting policy makers in formulating a VISION, long-term integrated and coherent, for the (smart, sustainable and inclusive) development of the EU territory up to 2050.

10. Scientifically-driven (what may happen in the future?) Politically-driven (what we would like to happen?) ET2050 Methodology

11. Politically-driven : Participatory Activities ET2050 will follow a Participatory approach mostly aiming to support policy makers to develop the common VISION Workshops for policy-analysts/makers and experts Personal interviews and small consultation/focus groups Online surveys and interaction

12. Scientifically driven : ET2050 Five-Steps Step 1: Present State of the European territory Step 2: 2030 and 2050 Baseline Scenarios Step 3: 2050 Territorial Extreme Scenarios Step 4: Supporting Policy-makers to develop the 2050 VISION Step 5: 2030 Midterm Targets and Pathways

13. ET2050 Work plan

14. DomainForecast Models 2010-2030CoveragePartner Demography MULTIPOL Cohort-component, hierarchical, multiregional, supranational model of population dynamics (up to 2030) ESPON at NUTS2 OIM Economy MASST Econometric: social, macroeconomic and Territorial (up to 2030) ESPON at NUTS2 POLIMI Transport TT/MOSAIC Integrated modal split and traffic assignment based on TRANSTOOLS OD trip matrices (up to 2030) EU27 at NUTS2 MCRIT Land-use METRONAMICA Spatial and dynamic land use model that Uses constrained cellular automata to allocate land-uses (up to 2050) EU27 at Cells 1 km2 RIKS Integrated SASI Dynamic System linked to transport networks (up to 2050) ESPON and Western Balkans at NUTS3 S&W

15. DomainForeight Meta-models 2030-2050CoveragePartner Integrated TV+ First version developed in the TRANSVISIONS study (DGMOVE, 2008) to support the EC Communication on the Future of Transport, Revision of White Paper and TENs Guidelines (up to 2050) Europe MCRIT Integrated PASH+ First version developed in the PASHMINA 7FP project (2011) (up to 2050) WorldMCRIT

16. DomainPolicy-evaluationCoveragePartner TIA Territorial Impact Assessment First version developed in the ESPON 3.2 study, then refined and applied in several ESPON projects (TIPTAP…). Europe POLIMI 1.Definition of criteria to evaluate policy-aims 2.Definition of relative weights (in the ESPON MC frame) 3.Identification of scientifically sound indicators to measure the criteria (to be calculated with outputs produced by forecast and foresight models) 4.Evaluation of the scenarios, and based on the evaluation adjustment of the scenarios 5. Evaluation of the VISION, and based on the evaluation refinement

17. Present State (1)

18. Present State: transnational strategic reports (1) (To support policy-makers) the expert “catalytic” approach will be based on: Transnational zone or macro-region Partner South West countries (Spain, Portugal) with extensions to Maghreb countries (Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia) MCRIT Mediterranean countries (Italy, southern Balkans, with extensions to some Mashrek countries (Libya, Egypt) POLIMI North-West Europe (Ireland, UK, France, Benelux) TERSYN and IGEAT Germany and Alpine countries (with junction to the Danubian area)S&W Baltic Sea Region and Nordic and Northern Peripheries (with extensions to the Arctic and Barents area) NORDREGIO Danubian countries (with extensions to Moldova, southern Ukraine and the northern part of the Black Sea Basin) RKK South-East European region, (Greece, south-eastern Balkans with extensions to Turkey, the southern parts of the Black Sea Basin, the Trans-Caucasian Republics and the Middle East) UTH Eastern European countries between the Danube basin and the Baltic Sea region (with extensions to north-west Russia, Bielorussia and northern Ukraine) SWE Outermost regions MCRIT

19. Present State: future-oriented reports for sectors (1) Sectors consideredPartner Demographic trends and potential territorial impacts in EuropeOIM Economic trends and potential territorial impacts in EuropePOLIMI Technologic trends and potential territorial impacts in EuropeMCRIT Transport trends and potential territorial impacts in EuropeS&W Energy trends and potential territorial impacts in EuropeTERSYN Land-use trends and potential territorial impacts in EuropeRIKS Environmental trends and potential territorial impacts in EuropeIGEAT Governance trends and potential territorial impacts in EuropeNORDEGIO

20. Baseline Scenario (2)

21. Example of 2050 Baseline: TV+ (Transvisions, DGMOVE, 2008) Baseline Business as Usual Scenario

22. Extreme Scenarios (3)

23. Extreme Scenarios (3)

24. SPSP / Infographic Group United Kingdom view by Alessandro Augiri ex. Flows? According to Project Specifications: This scenario provides an image of the European territory in which economic and population growth as well as public investments are mainly stimulated to take place within main corridors. Europe of the Flows is characterised by strong connections between cities and transport nodes that structure the European territory. Political focus lies on issues such as enhancing connections and long distance networks and global integration

25. SPSP / Infographic Group Netherlands // Paul van Hemert ex. Cities? According to Project Specifications: This scenario provides an image of the European territory in which economic and population growth as well as public investments are mainly stimulated to take place within existing cities; cities that have a role as driving forces in the global, national and/or regional level. Europe of the Cities is characterised by economically strong and compact cities that structure the European territory. Political focus lies on issues such as intensified use of urban space, strong preservation of open space, reduction of long-distance traffic

26. ex. Regions? According to Project Specifications: This scenario provides an image of the European territory in which economic and population growth as well as public investments mainly take place on the basis of specific regional identities and strengths. Europe of the Regions is characterised by strong urban and rural territories that form a mosaic of different regions and types of territories with strong identities. Political focus lies on issues such as regional self-reliance, small- scale development and landscape protection.

27. Initial Assessment: Opinions of the ET2050 experts

28. A scenario describes what will possibly happen under certain preconditions. ET2050. The prospective scenarios should define a realistic playing-field for the Territorial VISION. And the VISION must help to define policy- relevant scenarios. European Territorial VISION 2050 (4)

29. VISION Scenarios Scientifically-driven Politically-driven The building process of the scenarios and the Territorial VISION should be cyclical and dynamic (no linear neither sequential) allowing the ESPON Monitoring Committee to take active part in the development and testing of the VISION and scenarios European Territorial VISION 2050 (4)

30. The European Territorial VISION 2050 and the scenarios

31. From the Project Specifications: The VISION should provide a coherent framework to formulate territorial policy actions at different policymaking levels and to assess and support policy initiatives from other sectors, all with a European perspective. The VISION is expected to have a strategic character that allows giving direction to the policy debate on territorial development. This project aims at supporting policymakers in formulating this long-term integrated and coherent vision on the development of the European territory A VISION is a dream of a future “ideal Europe” The VISION for 2050

32. The European Territorial VISION could include three components: 1.A set of commonly agreed general territorial objectives and principles, with quantified goals. 2.A series of (non ‐ binding) policy and governance recommendations likely to make the realisation of the VISION possible 3.A series of schematic maps of the European territory displaying strategic, structuring elements The VISION for 2050

33. Example of strategic maps: Keeble Economic Potential & Blue Bannane (1980s)

35. Example of strategic maps: Europe 2000 + (late 1980s, DGXVI, EC)

40. Example of strategic maps: ESPON3.2 (mid 2000s, ESPON)

42. Mid targets and Pathways (6) Sensible midterm targets (2030) that need to be met in order to guarantee that the European territory sufficiently develops into the direction of the Territorial VISION. Targets will be realistic but ambitious, address different levels of geographical scale, and types of territories and regions.

43. “Too seek Europe, is to make it! Europe exists through its search for the infinit -and this is what I call adventure” Zygmunt Bauman, “An Adventure called Europe”