1. NS 435 Unit 2: Impact of Ecological Changes on Agriculture Lei Wang, Ph.D.

2. Outline How Ecological Changes Affect Agriculture/Food Production? Short-Term Effects Long-Term Effects How Modern Agriculture Impacts the Climate? Alternative Solutions/Opportunities?

3. Food for Thought According to Siikamaki, (2006) “Agriculture is frequently discussed in the context of climate change: not only is agriculture vulnerable to climate change, it is also part of the problem and its potential solutions.” - Siikamaki, Juha. (2006). Climate Change and U.S. Agriculture. Examining the Connections. Environment, pg(s). 36-49.

4. Climate Context According to Peter Backlund from NCAR, “Human activities have altered the global climate. During the 20 th century, the global average surface T increased 0.6 C and global sea level increased 15 to 20 cm.” -Backlund, P., Janetos, A., and Schimel, D. Executive Summary: The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity, pages 1-10.

5. Climate Context “… human influences will continue to change Earth’s climate throughout the 21 st century. The global average T will rise another 1.1 to 5.4 C by 2100. Which will result in continued increases in sea level and overall rainfall.” -Backlund, P., Janetos, A., and Schimel, D. Executive Summary: The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity, pages 1-10.

6. Examples of Ecological Factors Temperature Precipitation CO2 concentrations Water availability Change in pest populations, plant diseases, and weeds.

7. How May Ecological Changes Affect Agriculture/Food Production? Drought/Flooding: (extreme weather events) ◦Soil moisture/erosion, evaporation Water pollution (i.e. agricultural run-off) Heat Stress w/ rising temps– crops, livestock Pollution levels (soil & H20)

8. How May Ecological Changes Affect Agriculture/Food Production? Increased pests, disease, weeds Some crops more sensitive to rising temps (tomatoes– e.g.) Altered Food Webs (e.g. polluted waters- marine food webs)

9. Short-Term Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture Some crops– may improve growing conditions - however, with continued temp increase (esp. Southern regions) some crops may not adapt. - Northern regions may benefit most (since tend to be cooler.) e.g. longer growing season opportunity. -- Possible to grow new crops/different crops.

10. Long Term Effects & Climate Change Long-term effects of climate change are not fully understood. Difficult to predict.

11. Earth’s Future Climate A vast majority of climate scientists agree that Earth will warm along with increasing greenhouse gases. However, the effects will be far more varied than a simple and uniform warming over the entire planet.

12. Earth’s Future Climate Translate temperature changes from a model into trends that affect people's everyday lives. A 2004 NCAR study found that, by the period 2080-99, American and European heat waves will be more severe, frequent, and long-lasting.

13. Earth’s Future Climate Another related study found that frost days will decline in many parts of the globe by 2080-99. The largest decreases are projected across the northwest parts of Europe and North America. Such a change would affect agriculture and tourism as well as natural ecosystems.

15. How Modern Agriculture Impacts the Climate GHG emissions (burning of fossil fuels, manure, food transportation– e.g.) Significant user of H20 resources. Significant user of land resources.

16. How Modern Agriculture Impacts the Climate Livestock– methane emissions Factory Farming- e.g. (produce large amount of GHG )

18. Alternative Solutions/Opportunities? GMO’s– e.g. resistant to drought/flooding New, more tolerant crops More irrigation, water storage Agriculture & Forests = GHG “sinks”

19. Alternative Solutions/Opportunities? Methane capture “tanks” Increase irrigation efficiency Focus on locally produce foods– e.g. Farmers Markets Improved fertilization practices– e.g. timing

20. References Backlund, P., Janetos, A., and Schimel, D. Executive Summary: The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity, pages 1-10. -Retrieved from: http://www.usda.gov/oce/global_change/files/SAP4_3/ExecSummary.pd f  Siikamaki, Juha. (2006). Climate Change and U.S. Agriculture: Examining the Connections. Environment, pgs. 36-49. - Retrieved from: http://kucourses.com/ec/courses/24739/CRS-NS435- 3407037/Unit_2_Climate_Change_and_US_Agriculture.pdf Earth’s Future Climate: http://www.ncar.ucar.edu/research/climate/future.php