1. The Arctic Climate Paquita Zuidema, RSMAS/MPO, MSC 118, March 2 2007

3. 29 Aug 1980

4. First some pure observations…

5. Change in annual mean temperature (°C): 1956-2005

6. Global temperature anomalies in 2005 relative to 1951-1980

8. Changes of Alaskan station temperatures (F), 1949-2004 [ from Alaska Climate Research Center ]

9. [from G. Juday, UAF]

11. Record Arctic sea ice minima: 2002- 2005

12. 29 Aug 1980

13. 25 Aug 2005

14. 6 Sep 2006

16. Submarine- measured sea ice thickness

17. Age of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean: 1988- 2005

19. Cumulative volume changes of glaciers (ACIA, 2005) North America Scandinavia Russia No. Hemis.

20. Extent of summer melt on Greenland

21. Satellite data tells us sea-level heights, since 1992 a rise of about 2 cm

22. annual Increased Spring And Summer Cloudiness 1982-1999 AVHRR data (Wang&Key, 2003) Persistent springtime cloud cover may advance snowmelt onset date (e.g., modeling study of Zhang 1996) spring summer

23. Now some future model projections…

24. Permafrost (CCSM) Sept. sea-ice (CCSM) Sept. sea-ice (Observed) (Holland, Lawrence)

25. Projected changes of temperature: 2070- 2090

26. Projected changes of Arctic sea ice

27. IPCC models: Arctic sea ice coverage, 1950- 2100

28. IPCC models: Projected Arctic (60-90ºN) change of surface air temperature relative to 1980-2000

29. Impact of 1 meter (3 feet) sea level rise on FL

31. What are we doing about it (as scientists) ?

32. 8 years of data from the North Slope of Alaska DOE/ARM site

33. SHEBA Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic

34. Early May ~ 76N, 165 W

35. annual Increased Spring And Summer Cloudiness 1982-1999 AVHRR data (Wang&Key, 2003) Persistent springtime cloud cover may advance snowmelt onset date (e.g., modeling study of Zhang 1996) spring summer

36. Surface-based Instrumentation: May 1-8 time series dBZ 35 GHz cloud radar ice cloud properties depolarization lidar-determined liquid cloud base Microwave radiometer-derived liquid water paths 4X daily soundings. Near-surface T ~ -20 C, inversion T ~-10 C -5-45 -20 1 2345678 day z -30C 4 1 8 2 4 6 8 km 100 g/m^2 day -10C lidar cloud base

37. May 4 Cloud Particle Imager data …pristine ice particles from upper cloud...super-cooled drizzle

38. How do clouds impact the surface ? J noon = 60 o Clouds decrease surface SW by 55 W m -2,increase LW by 49 W m -2 Surface albedo=0.86; most SW reflected back Clouds warm the surface, relative to clear skies with same T& T & RH, by time-mean 41 W m -2* (little impact at TOA) Can warm 1m of ice by 1.8 K/day, or melt 1 cm of 0C ice per day, barring any other mechanisms !

40. Great websites with real-time data, historical fotos: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/ http://nsidc.org http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/glance http://nsidc.org/data/seaice-index/

41. Thank you ! Paquita Zuidema, RSMAS/MPO, MSC118, March 2 2007