1. CCAC Science Advisory Panel Annual SLCP Science Update CCAC High Level Assembly Oslo, Norway 2-3 September, 2013 Presented by Dr. Drew T. Shindell, Chair of CCAC Science Advisory Panel

2. Black Carbon, Methane, Troposheric Ozone, Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Concentrations decrease in weeks to years; climate impacts in 1-2 decades CO 2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases A significant portion remains in the atmosphere for millennia Climate benefits accrue over multiple decades

3. T HE ROLE OF HFC S IN MITIGATING 21 ST CENTURY CLIMATE CHANGE Controls on methane and BC-rich sources can prevent 0.5°C warming by 2050 Replacing High-GWP HFCs with low-GWP alternatives can prevent an additional 0.1°C of warming by 2050.

4. SLCPs Can Reduce Projected Sea-Level Rise SLCP mitigation can reduce the rate of SLR by 18% in 2050 and 24% in 2100 ~50% reduction when combined with immediate CO 2 mitigation

5. Air Pollution & The Burden of Disease Household air pollution 3.5 million deaths and 100 million disability- adjusted life years Ambient air pollution 3.2 million deaths Tropospheric Ozone ~152,000 deaths

6. Cost and Health benefits of improved access to modern energy [Pachauri et al., ERL, 2013]

7. BC Impacts of Specific Emission Sources Gas flaring, particularly in the Arctic, substantial source of BC in the region Diesel generators important source of BC in counties with limited public power supply Studies support reducing emissions from some BC-rich sources (e.g. diesel engines) provide clear climate benefit

8. BC Emissions from Kerosene-Wick Lamps BC emissions from kerosene 20-fold increase over previous estimates Total forcing estimated at 7% of BC forcing by all other energy-related sources Kerosene-Wick Lamps used in millions of households in developing countries Affordable clean and available options exist

9. Methane Leakage Rates Higher than Previously Estimated Transcontinental CH 4 showing high values near the Gulf of Mexico [Leifer et al., AE, 2013] Fugitive emissions from gas extraction, transmission and distribution greater than expected in many cases New Utah data: 6-12% of production leaked! Emissions implications for growing global use of natural gas

10. Climate benefits more certain in snow/ice covered regions Benefits appear to be both very large and certain for the Himalayas and Arctic Benefits can be very large in other regions (e.g. China), but lower confidence Similar distinction between various measures

11. Climate benefits by measure

12. www.unep.org/ccac