1. DEPARTMENT OF CHEMISTRY SIMON FRASER UNIVERSITY Changes in Sight: Limits of Growth, Climate Change and Extreme Weather Phenomena Thomas Kadyk Engineering Scientist, Postdoc @ SFU Group of Michael Eikerling

2. Winemaking 2012/06/13 Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change 2

3. Growing of the Yeast 2012/06/13 Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change 3 0 min 1 min2 min

4. Growing of the Yeast 2012/06/13 Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change 4

5. Sugar Content 2012/06/13 Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change 5 sugar content

6. Alcohol Poisoning the Yeast 2012/06/13 Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change 6

7. 2012/06/13 Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change 7

8. Carbon Dioxide Residence Time 2012/06/13 Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change 8

9. 2012/06/13 Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change 9

10. Projections into the Future 2012/06/13 Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change 10

11. Uncertainties Measured value x = 1 Modelling y = 10 x = 10 z = y 3 = 1000 2012/06/13 Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change 11

12. Uncertainties Measured value x = 1 ± 0.1 = 0.9 … 1 … 1.1 Modelling y = 10 x = 7.9 … 10 … 12.6 z = y 3 = 501 … 1000 … 1995 2012/06/13 Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change 12

13. Temperature, Sea Level and Snow Cover 2012/06/13 Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change 13

14. Past Sea Level vs. Temperature 2012/06/13 Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change 14 Long-term effect

15. Sea Level Risks – U.S. East Coast 2012/06/13 Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change 15 globalwarmingart.com NASA SRTM data

16. Sea Level Risks – Southeast Asia 2012/06/13 Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change 16 globalwarmingart.com NASA SRTM data

17. Sea Level Risks – Middle East 2012/06/13 Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change 17 globalwarmingart.com NASA SRTM data

18. Sea Level Risks – North Sea 2012/06/13 Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change 18 globalwarmingart.com NASA SRTM data

19. Arctic Sea Ice 2012/06/13 Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change 19 19792007 NASA

20. Arctic Sea Ice 2012/06/13 Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change 20 Sorteberg, Bjeknes Centre for Climate Research and University Center at Svalbard, Norway.

21. Albedo 2012/06/13 Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change 21 % of radiation reflected Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal Positive feedback loop Arctic is warming twice as much as global average

22. Permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere 2012/06/13 Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change 22 Hugo Ahlenius (2007), UNEP/GRID-Arendal

23. Carbon Content 2012/06/13 Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change 23 Schuur et al., UNEP, CDIAC. Tarnocai (2009) Global Biogeochem Cycles 23, GB2023 in billion tonnes ≈ 50% of global belowground organic carbon pool

24. Increase in Extremes 2012/06/13 Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change 24 changes in extremes can be linked to changes in mean, variability and/or shape of probability distributions changing climate leads to changes in – frequency – intensity – spatial extent – duration – timing of extreme weather and climate events

25. Droughts 2012/06/13 Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change 25 Annual Vol. Soil Moisture trend 1950-2000 [%/y] Sheffield and Wood (2008) J Climate 21, 432

26. Droughts Positive feedback loops – less moisture in soil → less heat loss from evaporation + fewer clouds – vegetation dries out → more fires → release of CO 2 Globally, since the 1970s, droughts are getting longer and more widespread Heatwaves have become slightly hotter and more frequency Combination of droughts and heatwaves especially dangerous Drought projections not very accurate because they rely on uncertain precipitation projections 2012/06/13 Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change 26

27. Hard to Assess and Predict e.g. – El Niño, monsoons, tropical and extratropical cyclons – Rain and precipitation, Flooding, Winds Extreme events are rare – few data available Confidence in observed changes in extremes depends on quality, quantity and availability of analysis of data Low confidence in observed changes neither implies nor excludes the possibility of changes! 2012/06/13 Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change 27

28. Summary and Conclusions Nonlinear growth – hard to imagine Climate is very complex with dangerous positive feedback loops Complexity and nonlinearities lead to high uncertainty Uncertainty neither good nor bad Action chosen according to what is at risk (= a lot) Can we afford to be optimistic? 2012/06/13 Brown Bag Seminar Series on Climate Change 28

29. Literature IPCC (2007) 4 th Assessment Report IPCC (2012) Managing the risks of extreme evens and disasters to advance climate change adaption (SREX) IPCC (2012) Renewable energy sources and climate change mitigation (SREEN) PIRC (2012) Climate Factsheets, www.pirc.info, climatesafety.org PIRC (2008) Climate Safety, www.pirc.info, climatesafety.org WWF (2012) Living Planet Report 2012 http://ourchangingclimate.wordpress.com http://climate.nasa.gov/ http://www.skepticalscience.com/ free online courses: http://forecast.uchicago.edu/lectures.html https://www.e- education.psu.edu/geosc10/ 2012/06/13