1. Peter Stolniuk M.Sc. Candidate Department of Agricultural Economics UNIVERSITY OF SASKATCHEWAN Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada. www.usask.ca A Multi-Agent Simulation Approach to Farm and Rural Structural Change in Saskatchewan

2. Department of Agricultural Economics Problem  What will be the structure of agriculture in Saskatchewan in 20/40 years? Farm size and distribution Technology and production characteristics Characteristics of the work force Resource ownership and financing

3. Department of Agricultural Economics Why is Structure Important  Fewer larger farms leads to rural depopulation  Impacts long run infrastructure  Roads, schools, hospitals, recreational facilities, and businesses  Impacts the location of processing facilities

4. Department of Agricultural Economics Methodology  Building on Freeman (2005), traditional economic models do not capture the dynamics and differential impacts of farming  Agent based modeling has gained popularity in social sciences

5. Department of Agricultural Economics Methodology  Agent-Based Modeling  Autonomous, interacting agents that make decisions which link behavior to the environment (Parker et al. 2003)  Geographic based  3 Agent classes  Farmers, Land owners, and Auctioneer (observer) All interact in the land markets Buying, Selling, and information sharing

6. Department of Agricultural Economics Key Elements  Heterogeneity  Land Quality and location  Agents Within each group of agents there are different demographic characteristics  As a result, the best use and value of land is not the same for everyone or every plot of land  In land auction the land will sell to the person with the highest bid value

7. Department of Agricultural Economics Land Markets Rental Market Purchase Market Expanding Farmers Non-farm OwnersRetiring/Exiting Farmers New Entrants Sell Buy Retire/Forced Exit LesseeLessor

8. Department of Agricultural Economics Model Flow Chart Expectations For the Future Selling Market Land Quality and Location Bid for land Based on Quality and Use Owner Operator Income from Land Land Market Best Use of Land (crop or Livestock) Rental Market Exit Renter Expand Remain the Same Financial and Personal Constraints

9. Department of Agricultural Economics Current Status  Endogenize the decision to switch to livestock  Improve on the financial/behavior equations Feedback and feed forward  Expand the simulated area Increase the number of land transactions Increase the importance of distance

10. Department of Agricultural Economics Questions?