1. Linking current vulnerability with WEAP Bill Dougherty, SEI-Boston 9-13 May 2005 Akosomba, Ghana

2. Overview Structure of the vulnerability component of the WEAP + training workshop Basic concepts Framework for vulnerability assessment for use in WEAP The first of two working group exercises

3. Structure of Vulnerability Training Component Aims:  to provide a methodology for analysis of stakeholder perspectives  to indicate how vulnerability assessment links with WEAP & MCA-WEAP Approach: presentations and two working group exercises

4. Basic Concepts (1) Vulnerability: degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of environmental change

5. Basic Concepts (2) Vulnerability to climate change is determined by two major factors  Character, magnitude and rate of climatic variation  Adaptive capacity, or ability to cope, of system

6. Basic Concepts (3) Vulnerability to climate change of water resources focuses on:  Spatial changes in precipitation  Temporal changes in precipitation Water stress: demand for freshwater > 20% supply Water scarcity: consumption < 1,000 m3/cap-yr

7. Basic Concepts (4) Vulnerability dimensions are simply concerns for wellbeing and basic needs Vulnerability indicators are aspects of the vulnerability dimensions which can be quantified

8. Framework for Vulnerability Assessment among Stakeholders  What affects ability to cope?  What are the dimensions of vulnerability?  How do vulnerability dimensions relate to vulnerability indicators?  How is stakeholder output linked to WEAP and MCA-WEAP?  How might vulnerability change?

9. -Biophysical diagnostics -Socio-ecnomic diagnostics -Institutional diagnostics -Analysis of legal framework -Analysis of extreme events -Probability of occurence -Trends -Use of climate variability to project future climates WHEN?WHEN? WHAT HAZARDS? CLIMATIC HAZARDS ACTOR All users of water resources -Identification of actors -Identification of level of vulnerability -Roles and functions RISK Actio n AREA OF IMPACT -Evaluation of impacts -Autonomous adaptation Integrated vulnerability index -Analysis of vulnerability -Indicators -Profiles WHO ARE VULNERABLE WHERE ARE THE HAZARDS? What affects ability to cope?

10. What are the dimensions of vulnerability? Possible examples  Water: drinking water, washing water  Health: medicine, doctor, school education  Land and resources: land, food  Domestic: clothes, income source, housing

11. How do vulnerability dimensions relate to vulnerability indicators? Vulnerable groups Data source DimensionIndicatorUnitPeriod Time series

12. Working Group Exercise Aim Simulate processing of information from stakeholder group Use and/or translate stakeholder information into inputs useable by WEAP and MCA-WEAP

13. Working Group Exercise Context Location: semi-arid water basin in Country N Current climate: low rainfall, recurrent drought Socioeconomic: mix of villages and small towns, income stratification 5 types of stakeholders: smallholders, pastoralists, traders, village council members, extension workers

14. Working Group Exercise Steps Single large group with individual discussion groups In individual discussion groups: Discuss basic needs Classify whether met or unmet Identify relevant climatic hazards In large group: Develop vulnerability dimensions Construct initial indicators

15. What affects ability to cope?