1. Public opinion and migration: the impact of the crisis Workshop on “Integration Policies in times of economic crises” 16 th International Metropolis conference Ponta Delgada Georges Lemaitre OECD 15 September 2011

2. Public opinion in the recent crisis In 2009, there was a general feeling among governments that the situation was under control with regard to public opinion  the right things had been done to transmit the message that migration was being restricted in response to the crisis. Then came the elections  an electoral shift to anti- or restrictive immigration parties  Was this crisis-related?

3. Public opinion and migration The general context: there is an underlying « natural » xenophobia (in the literal sense  fear of, or discomfort with things foreign) but also a « natural » curiosity / tolerance about others. Can be affected by –Specific events (Netherlands killings) –Public discourse on migration / media coverage –General economic situation Relatively easy for unscrupulous persons to manipulate  simple/simplistic views of the world are appealing The challenge for governments is to « manage » this and at the same time, develop sensible migration policy This is a permanent challenge, crisis or no crisis.

4. What influences public opinion about migration ?

5. The example of the United Kingdom – large sudden increase in inflows appear to have had a strong effect on public opinion about migration. 5/14 IPSOS MORI Survey

6. The case of Sweden Extensive public debate about labour migration 2006-2008, in and out of Parliament Introduction of very liberal labour migration regime in December 2008 Movements have increased, but appear to be under control. Yet members of an anti-immigrant party were elected to Parliament in late 2009 (?).

7. Public opinion and economic factors. Each point represents a result for a country in a particular year. Countries can be represented more than once.

8. A change in personal financial situation increases negative views, but … the baseline situation predominates Hirings continue during a downturn, including hirings of immigrants.  How do unemployed natives view this?.

9. The crisis and the integration of immigrants : This is the scenario to avoid  the consequence of the Swedish financial crisis of the 1990s Employment-population ratios, Sweden, foreign- and native-born, 1987-2003.

10. The crisis and spending on integration Reaction of public opinion to migration is complex. The crisis has had an impact on public opinion but cuts now are probably more a response to budgetary problems than to public opinion. Justifying spending levels: –Migrants who enter during a recession have a much harder time. –The playing field is not level  Re-integration into jobs of immigrants is more difficult in a slack labour environment. –History has shown that poorer outcomes for immigrants makes further migration difficult to sell.

11. Thank you for your attention.