1. Reacción en Cadena: Causas y Consecuencias de la Guerra Anti-Inmingrante en Estados Unidos Douglas S. Massey Woodrow Wilson School Princeton University

2. Origines de la Guerra Anti-inmigrante Epocas Importantes 1. La Paz Bracera 1954-1964 2. El Ascenso de la Ameneza Latina 1965-1995 3. Tiempos de Guerra 1996-2006 4. Punto Muerto 2007-2011

4. Rise of Latino Threat Narrative

20. Tiempos de Guerra 1992 Primero Ataque en NY 1995 Bombardeo en Oklahoma 1996 Anti-Terrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act 1998 Bombardeo de USS Cole en Yemen 2000 Bombardeo de las Embajadas en Africa 2001 9-11 Ataques en NY y Washington 2001 USA PATRIOT Act

29. Punto Muerto Tasa de Salida Indocumentada a EEUU: 0 Tasa de Retorno a México: 0 Población Permanente de Indocumentados 11 milliones en total 6.5 millones de Mexicanos Más represión del estado norteamericano Mas exclusión del pueblo estadonidense

36. Consequences of the War: Public Opinion

38. Model to Predict Probability of Undocumented Migration Demographic Background Age Age-squared Married No. of minors in household General Human Capital Labor force experience Education Specific Human Capital Months of prior U.S. experience Number of prios U.S. trips Unskilled urban job Skilled urban job General Social Capital Parent a U.S. Migrant No of U.S. migrant siblings Prop U.S. Migrants in Community Specific Social Capital Spouse a U.S. migrant No. of U.S. migrant children No. of U.S. born children Physical Capital Land Home Business U.S. Social Context Frequency of Threatening Media References Expected earnings Consumer confidence index U.S. Policy Context Availability of Legal Visas Border enforcement factor

39. Effect of Enforcement on Likelihood of Undocumented Migration First Undocumented Trip to the U.S. Additional Undocumented Trips to the U.S. β SE β U.S. Socioeconomic Context Frequency of Threatening Media References-0.0026**0.00130.00240.0015 Expected earnings0.0004***0.0004-0.0045***0.0005 Consumer confidence index0.0048***0.00100.0055***0.0012 U.S. Policy Context Availability of Legal Visas-4.5095***0.3315-4.3981***0.4328 Border Enforcement Factor0.1682***0.04120.0959**0.0392 Intercept-7.1785***0.25981.8144***0.3735 Likelihood Ratio4740.5351***3889.1290*** Wald3291.3784***2745.6100*** Total number of person-years684,128 82,735 *p<.10; **p<.05; ***p<.01

43. Effect of Enforcement on Likelihood of Return Migration First Return from U.S. Trip within 12 months Additional Returns from U.S. Trip within 12 months β SE β U.S. Social Context Frequency of Threatening Media References0.00220.00210.0038**0.0018 Expected earnings0.0004**0.0007-0.0036***0.0006 Consumer confidence index-0.0035**0.0017-0.00040.0014 U.S. Policy Context Availability of Legal Visas-2.3915***0.5821-3.2181***0.5258 Border enforcement factor-0.2093***0.07270.3312***0.0492 Intercept-8.0701***0.43270.9421**0.4549 Likelihood Ratio8390.8329***3252.6061*** Wald10050.2181***2670.5435*** Total number of person-years679,488 66,312 *p<.10; **p<.05; ***p<.01

45. Back to the Future: Flows Then and Now 1956-1957 – 57,000 Documented Migrants per Year – 441,000 Guestworkers per Year – 498,000 Total Legal Entries per Year – Apprehension Rate: 38.4 Migrants per Agent & Falling 2008-2009 – 177,000 Documented Migrants Per Year – 331,000 Guestworkers per Year – 508,000 Total Legal Entries per Year – Apprehension Rate: 34.5 Migrants per Agent & Falling

46. Major Difference Between Then and Now: Resident Undocumented Population – 1956-1957 Effectively Zero – 2007-2008 Currently Estimated at 10.8 Million 60% of all Undocumented Migrants Are Mexican 55% of All Mexicans Present in US Are Undocumented – Of 11 Million Undocumented Migrants 3+ Million Entered as children 500,000-1 Million Former Temporary Protected Status

47. Reacción en Cadena: Causas y Consecuencias de la Guerra Anti-Inmingrante en Estados Unidos Douglas S. Massey Woodrow Wilson School Princeton University